The War of 18-49, The Masked Singer

A Record-Setting Rookie Singing Show

While singing competitions have been dominant in primetime for the last two decades, even American Idol and The Voice were not megahit performers out of the gate; they both crossed that threshold in season two. But Fox's winter newbie The Masked Singer wasted no time, opening with a whooping 3.0 demo on January 2, 2019. That was well over double its lead-in from 24 Hours to Hell and Back.

The show took a somewhat sizable drop to 2.3 in week two, but it held in the low 2's for most of the rest of the season, then picked up momentum down the stretch with a 2.7 in the penultimate week and a 2.6/3.6 for the double-episode season finale. The season's Plus average of 272 was far bigger than any season of The Voice and barely 10% weaker than even the very strongest American Idol seasons.

On the Fall/Spring Schedule

Unlike American Idol, which always aired only one season per year, Fox was able to put The Masked Singer on the two-cycles-per-year plan long used with The Voice and Dancing with the Stars. In fall 2019, season two of The Masked Singer was still deep into megahit levels if not quite on the level of season one; it stayed just north of 2.0 for over a month and dipped into high-1's for the second half of the season.

Despite airing after the Super Bowl, season three looked like it was headed for another step down in raw numbers, but then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and The Masked Singer got a sizable ratings bump during the lockdowns, breaking 2.0 through late March and most of April. The show kept going pretty strong the next fall, returning on Premiere Wednesday against a lot of filler competition due to pandemic-related production delays.

The first cracks in the mask might have finally appeared in season five in spring 2021; it started in the low-1's and stayed there, narrowly taking it out of megahit territory. A drop was inevitable considering how much it benefited in the previous spring season, but was this drop large enough to be worrisome? Its legacy as a high ratings achiever is absolutely secure, and it won't be a Joe Millionaire-esque flash in the pan. But the 2021-22 season will tell us a lot about the show's true longevity potential.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Slot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	Winter 2019	Wednesday 9:00	2.58		2.2	3.6	detail	A+
2	Fall 2019	Wednesday 8:00	2.00		1.6	2.5	detail	A-
3	Spring 2020		Wednesday 8:00	2.03	-21%	1.8	2.4		detail	A-
4	Fall 2020		Wednesday 8:00	1.78	-11%	1.3	3.5	detail	B
5	Spring 2021		Wednesday 8:00	1.21	-40%	1.1	1.4	detail	C
6	Fall 2021		Wednesday 8:00	0.94	-47%	0.8	1.1	detail	C-
7	Spring 2022		Wednesday 8:00	0.71	-41%	0.6	0.9	detail	D+
8	Fall 2022		Wednesday 8:00	0.73	-23%	0.4	2.2	detail	D+
9	Spring 2023		Wednesday 8:00	0.57	-20%	0.5	0.7	detail	B-
10	Fall 2023		Wednesday 8:00	0.46	-37%	0.4	0.5	detail	C
11	Spring 2024		Wednesday 8:00	0.39	-31%	0.3	0.5	detail	C-

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now24	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	Winter 2019	272	megahit	1.03		233	376	312	376
2	Fall 2019	244	megahit	0.92		194	307	307	272
3	Spring 2020	248	megahit	0.94	-9%	215	295	248	286
4	Fall 2020	275	megahit	1.05	+13%	202	543	243	279
5	Spring 2021	188	big hit	0.71	-24%	164	209	203	209
6	Fall 2021	185	big hit	0.70	-33%	165	218	218	194
7	Spring 2022	139	hit	0.53	-26%	123	171	171	139
8	Fall 2022	171	big hit	0.65	-8%	91	516	148	155
9	Spring 2023	134	hit	0.51	-4%	113	159	148	129
10	Fall 2023	120	solid	0.46	-30%	100	142	142	134
11	Spring 2024	103	solid	0.39	-23%	92	127	108	92

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.