The 2018-19 Climate Center: Renewology Targets

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

The 2018-19 Climate Center: Renewology Targets

Note: You are viewing the Javascript-disabled version of this page, which updates less frequently. You may see more timely info on a Javascript-enabled browser.Ever wonder how Renewology comes up with its percentages? A key part is the network-specific target averages; the R% is all about how close a show is to its target average. This Climate Center post will illustrate the steps that go into creating those targets, within each network and category.

The first table is simply a week-to-week list of all the network/category targets, so you can see easily how they've evolved over the course of the season. Then there's a more in-depth look at the components of the target on each network. At the bottom of these tables is a brief description of what these numbers are. For more on why they're actually used in Renewology, please see the summary of the Renewology process. (The stuff about target averages is under Step Three.)

These numbers are up to date through Sunday, September 30.

More Climate Center: League Averages | Networks | Renewology Targets

The Targets

Week	ABC Comedy	ABC Drama	CBS Comedy	CBS Drama	NBC Comedy	NBC Drama	Fox Comedy	Fox Drama	CW WB	CW CBS
1	0.74	0.68	0.79	0.72	0.71	0.75	0.81	0.85	0.25	0.20
2	0.71	0.67	0.75	0.72	0.68	0.76	0.85	0.87	0.25	0.20

ABC

Week	y2dTrue	Decline	ProjTrue	Category	CatRatio	ProjCat	NetAvg	NetGen	FinalAvg	Target
1	1.08	-13%	0.94	Comedy	113%	1.06	0.99	-0.02	0.97	0.74
1	1.08	-13%	0.94	1	1.08	-13%	0.94	Drama	91%	0.86	0.91	-0.02	0.89	0.68
2	1.07	-15%	0.91	Comedy	110%	1.00	0.95	-0.02	0.93	0.71
2	1.07	-15%	0.91	2	1.07	-15%	0.91	Drama	98%	0.89	0.90	-0.02	0.88	0.67

CBS

Week	y2dTrue	Decline	ProjTrue	Category	CatRatio	ProjCat	NetAvg	NetGen	FinalAvg	Target
1	1.07	-13%	0.93	Comedy	116%	1.07	0.99	+0.05	1.04	0.79
1	1.07	-13%	0.93	1	1.07	-13%	0.93	Drama	91%	0.85	0.90	+0.04	0.94	0.72
2	1.12	-15%	0.94	Comedy	99%	0.93	0.94	+0.05	0.98	0.75
2	1.12	-15%	0.94	2	1.12	-15%	0.94	Drama	87%	0.82	0.89	+0.04	0.94	0.72

NBC

Week	y2dTrue	Decline	ProjTrue	Category	CatRatio	ProjCat	NetAvg	NetGen	FinalAvg	Target
1	1.20	-13%	1.04	Comedy	80%	0.83	0.95	-0.03	0.92	0.71
1	1.20	-13%	1.04	1	1.20	-13%	1.04	Drama	93%	0.97	1.01	-0.03	0.98	0.75
2	1.31	-20%	1.04	Comedy	69%	0.72	0.92	-0.03	0.89	0.68
2	1.31	-20%	1.04	2	1.31	-20%	1.04	Drama	96%	1.00	1.03	-0.03	1.00	0.76

Fox

Week	y2dTrue	Decline	ProjTrue	Category	CatRatio	ProjCat	NetAvg	NetGen	FinalAvg	Target
1	0.98	-13%	0.85	Comedy	92%	0.79	0.83	+0.23	1.06	0.81
1	0.98	-13%	0.85	1	0.98	-13%	0.85	Drama	105%	0.90	0.87	+0.24	1.11	0.85
2	1.07	-17%	0.89	Comedy	94%	0.84	0.87	+0.24	1.11	0.85
2	1.07	-17%	0.89	2	1.07	-17%	0.89	Drama	99%	0.89	0.89	+0.24	1.13	0.87

Week	y2dTrue	Decline	ProjTrue	Studio	CatRatio	ProjCat	NetAvg	NetGen	FinalAvg	Target
1	0.45	-13%	0.39	WB	115%	0.45	0.41	-0.09	0.32	0.25
1				1	0.45	-13%	0.39	CBS	60%	0.23	0.33	-0.07	0.26	0.20
2				0.45	-13%	0.39	WB	115%	0.45	0.41	-0.09	0.32	0.25
2				2	0.45	-13%	0.39	CBS	60%	0.23	0.33	-0.07	0.26	0.20

Week - The Weeks in these tables refer to the weeks in which these averages are used, not the weeks that the numbers themselves come from. In other words, a y2dTrue number for week 6 is actually averaging the network's original True ratings through the end of week 5. Week 6 numbers are used to generate the R% while numbers are coming out during week 6.

y2dTrue - The network's average of all original, non-sports 2017-18 series in True through the end of the previous week.

Decline - How much the y2dTrue is expected to drop between now and the end of the season. Derived from how this average dropped in the previous three seasons. These numbers will get pretty close to zero by the end of the fall, though NBC's will take a little longer because it is expected to keep declining during The Voice's hiatus.
ProjTrue - The average that results from applying Decline to y2dTrue.

In week one (and before week one), when no data from this season was available, y2dTrue is the previous season's True average, while Decline expects a 15% year-to-year decline. New this year: in weeks two and three, y2dTrue is a blend of this season's average and the previous season's average. This will also be used in the early weeks of the CW's season, since their rollout is a bit different this year.

CatRatio - The ratio between the category average and the overall network average. Early in the season, this is based on what these ratios were at the end of previous seasons, though New This Year it does make a minor adjustment based on how the ratios are trending year-to-year. Across weeks 17-20, it will increasingly incorporate actual data from this season. Beyond week 20, it uses only the ratios from this season to date.
ProjCat - The average that results from applying CatRatio to ProjTrue.

NetAvg - A weighted average of ProjTrue (60% weight) and ProjCat (40% weight).
NetGen - The 'network generosity' factor, derived from the network's historic renewal tendencies.
FinalAvg - NetAvg plus NetGen.
Target - The point at which a show on this network and in this category has a 50 R%. Approximately equal to 75% of FinalAvg.

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Tuesday, October 2, 2018

The 2018-19 Climate Center: Renewology Targets

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