ABC Daily Renewology for 2018-19

Saturday, September 29, 2018

ABC Daily Renewology for 2018-19

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This is a look at Renewology for all ABC scripted series in 2018-19, updating every day as new ratings come in. See below the table for an explanation of the numbers.

These numbers are up to date through Thursday, May 31.

Comedy Drama All

Name	R%	True	Proj	Target	Aired	Skew	Male
Grey's Anatomy	100%	1.75	1.54	0.66	1	36%
The Good Doctor	99%	1.33	1.16	0.66	1	23%	35%
Modern Family	98%	1.37	1.20	0.72	1	38%	41%
The Goldbergs	97%	1.29	1.12	0.72	1	35%	43%
American Housewife	75%	0.96	0.84	0.72	1	35%	40%
A Million Little Things	68%	1.09	0.76	0.66	1	28%	32%
Single Parents	59%	1.09	0.77	0.72	1	34%	37%
How to Get Away with Murder	39%	0.68	0.61	0.66	1	35%

R% - The renewal forecast based on the Renewology formula. See here for many details on how it comes together. If an R% has a black background, the show's fate has already been decided, so it is not a 'prediction' that counts as part of the record. You can refer to that show's Vault page to see the last official prediction (the last episode with a colored-background R%).

True - The show's rolling average in True, this site's timeslot-adjusted adults 18-49 rating. It is an average of True ratings for only the last one-third of the total episodes aired this season, rounded up. This rolling average also used to make up the True Power Rankings from past seasons.
Proj - A mean projection of where the True averages will end up in the future. These projections, rather than the raw True average, are what go into the Renewology formula.

Target - The network/category-specific True average at which Renewology expects the R% to be exactly 50. (In other words, this is the formula's interpretation of the 'bubble.') See here for much more detail on how these targets are derived. Please note that on this page, every single R% is calculated with the most recent version of the target. That explains why some R% are different from what you see for the most recent episode in the SpotVault. Targets update just once per week, after Sunday finals come in.

Collapse/Resilient - The 5th and 95th percentile of the future True projections. The final True average should end up somewhere between Collapse and Resilient 90% of the time.

Aired - How many episodes of the series have aired this season. This number is very important in turning the raw True average into the projection, because shows early in their orders (especially new shows) are expected to drop a lot.

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Saturday, September 29, 2018

ABC Daily Renewology for 2018-19

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