It's time for a journey through the Fox Wednesday schedule in 2017-18...
fall
| Year | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Lethal Weapon | Empire | 206 | ||
| 145 | 267 | ||||
| 2017-18 | Empire | Star | 149 (-28%) | ||
| 176 (+21%) | 123 (-54%) | ||||
| VsAvg | +74% | +3% | +35% | ||
| Rank | 1/17 | 5/17 | 4/17 | ||
Sophomore Star did well in its union with fellow Lee Daniels drama Empire, but nowhere near well enough to overcome an incredibly fast-bleeding Empire paired with a great newbie from last fall.
winter
| Year | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Lethal Weapon | Star | 108 | ||
| 112 | 104 | ||||
| 2017-18 | The X-Files | 9-1-1 | 121 (+12%) | ||
| 92 (-18%) | 150 (+45%) | ||||
| VsAvg | -55% | -23% | -39% | ||
| Rank | 15/17 | 10/17 | 15/17 | ||
But an opportunity for growth finally returned in the winter months. Despite an underwhelming run for the second go-round of The X-Files revival, Ryan Murphy struck again with huge 9/8c newbie 9-1-1. It premiered great and held very nearly all of its premiere audience, allowing its gains to more than make up for X-Files' losses.
spring
| Year | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Shots Fired | Empire | 130 | ||
| 73 | 187 | ||||
| 2017-18 | Empire | Star | 138 (+6%) | ||
| 159 (+119%) | 117 (-37%) | ||||
| VsAvg | +28% | -38% | -11% | ||
| Rank | 5/17 | 13/17 | 13/17 | ||
And in the spring, Empire held up really well (clinging to high-1's) while getting compared against a far weaker newbie in Shots Fired. That allowed the same duo that had gone -28% in the fall to improve the night for Fox in the spring.
Rating the Ratings
| Name | Lo | Avg | Hi | y2y | Plus | Label | Plusy2y | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empire* | 1.6 | 1.83 | 2.4 | -33% | 167 | big hit | -25% | detail |
| The X-Files | 0.7 | 0.97 | 1.3 | 88 | marginal | detail | ||
| Star | 1.2 | 1.31 | 1.8 | -3% | 120 | solid | +9% | detail |
| 9-1-1 | 1.5 | 1.65 | 1.8 | 151 | big hit | detail |
Empire: Evaluating this one is a true test of how much weight you put on finishing well. After close to 50% declines in the first month of the season, Empire actually had a couple points that were flirting with even in Plus down the stretch. But it still wasn't that close to truly stabilizing year-to-year, and the small finale spike left a bit of an underwhelming final impression. Maybe we will see the spring trend or better for all of next year and I can be kinder, but I am hesitant in a -25% season to go any higher than Grade: C+.
The X-Files: There aren't a lot of precedents for a scripted show sitting out for almost two years... but even if you throw out the 2017 football episode, The X-Files was down basically 50% in Plus. It's a weird enough circumstance that I'm not gonna drop the F-bomb here, and the ratings were still sort of passable in the big picture. But it goes down as a significant disappointment to be sure, especially considering how well its lead-out did. Grade: D.
Star: If you really made me choose which Star season was the stronger performance, I would probably say season one alongside Lethal Weapon was stronger than season two with its most compatible possible lead-in. But for this kind of show to even come close to that level in a second season is a win. Grade: B.
9-1-1: Kinda hard to believe it is only the second big hit scripted newbie for Fox in the A18-49+ era. Like that other newbie (Empire), it started very well, but the post-premiere hold was even more impressive. Grade: A.
The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.
Here's the now updated Schedules Plus for Fox Wednesday.
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