Fox Daily Renewology for 2017-18

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Fox Daily Renewology for 2017-18

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This is a look at Renewology for all Fox scripted series in 2017-18, updating every day as new ratings come in. See below the table for an explanation of the numbers.

These numbers are up to date through Sunday, October 1. (Includes preliminary ratings for Saturday, September 30 and Sunday, October 1.)

Comedy Drama All

Name	R%	True	Proj	Target	Collapse	Resilient	Aired
Empire	100%	2.26	2.08	0.83	1.55	2.61	1
Star	98%	1.53	1.40	0.83	1.06	1.73	1
Family Guy	93%	1.27	1.17	0.81	0.87	1.46	1
Lethal Weapon	90%	1.24	1.13	0.83	0.84	1.42	1
Bob's Burgers	89%	1.21	1.10	0.81	0.82	1.39	1
The Orville	86%	1.13	1.07	0.83	0.82	1.31	4
Gotham	67%	0.94	0.92	0.83	0.70	1.14	2
Ghosted	67%	1.29	0.92	0.81	0.59	1.26	1
The Mick	62%	0.95	0.87	0.81	0.66	1.08	1
The Last Man on Earth	55%	0.91	0.84	0.81	0.62	1.05	1
Brooklyn Nine-Nine	22%	0.74	0.67	0.81	0.50	0.84	1
The Exorcist	8%	0.64	0.58	0.83	0.43	0.73	1
The Simpsons	95%	1.33	1.21	0.81	0.90	1.52	1

R% - The renewal forecast based on the Renewology formula. See here for many details on how it comes together. If an R% has a black background, the show's fate has already been decided, so it is not a 'prediction' that counts as part of the record. You can refer to that show's Vault page to see the last official prediction (the last episode with a colored-background R%).

True - The show's rolling average in True, this site's timeslot-adjusted adults 18-49 rating. It is an average of True ratings for only the last one-third of the total episodes aired this season, rounded up. This rolling average also used to make up the True Power Rankings from past seasons.
Proj - A mean projection of where the True averages will end up in the future. These projections, rather than the raw True average, are what go into the Renewology formula.

Target - The network/category-specific True average at which Renewology expects the R% to be exactly 50. (In other words, this is the formula's interpretation of the 'bubble.') See here for much more detail on how these targets are derived. Please note that on this page, every single R% is calculated with the most recent version of the target. That explains why some R% are different from what you see for the most recent episode in the SpotVault. Targets update just once per week, after Sunday finals come in.

Collapse/Resilient - The 5th and 95th percentile of the future True projections. The final True average should end up somewhere between Collapse and Resilient 90% of the time.

Aired - How many episodes of the series have aired this season. This number is very important in turning the raw True average into the projection, because shows early in their orders (especially new shows) are expected to drop a lot.

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Thursday, October 5, 2017

Fox Daily Renewology for 2017-18

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