NBC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

Monday, October 17, 2016

NBC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

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This is a look at Renewology for all NBC scripted series in 2016-17, updating every day as new ratings come in. See below the table for an explanation of the numbers.

These numbers are up to date through Saturday, October 15. (Includes preliminary broadcast ratings for Friday, October 14 and Saturday, October 15.)

Name	R%	True	Proj	Target	Collapse	Resilient	Aired
This Is Us	99%	2.15	1.90	1.02	1.34	2.46	3
Law and Order: SVU	93%	1.40	1.41	1.02	1.09	1.72	4
Chicago PD	92%	1.38	1.38	1.02	1.07	1.70	4
Superstore	90%	1.20	1.20	0.91	0.95	1.46	5
The Good Place	89%	1.26	1.23	0.91	0.90	1.56	5
Chicago Fire	88%	1.53	1.36	1.02	0.98	1.74	1
Chicago Med	83%	1.26	1.25	1.02	0.98	1.53	4
Blindspot	83%	1.23	1.23	1.02	1.01	1.44	5
The Blacklist	83%	1.25	1.25	1.02	0.97	1.53	4
Timeless	39%	1.17	0.95	1.02	0.64	1.25	2

R% - The renewal forecast based on the Renewology formula. See here for many details on how it comes together.

True - The show's rolling average in True, this site's timeslot-adjusted adults 18-49 rating. It is an average of only the last one-third of the total episodes aired this season, rounded up. This rolling average also used to make up the True Power Rankings from past seasons.
Proj - A mean projection of where the True averages will end up in the future. These projections, rather than the raw True average, are what go into the Renewology formula.

Target - The network/category-specific True average at which Renewology expects the R% to be exactly 50. (In other words, this is the formula's interpretation of the 'bubble.') See here for much more detail on how these targets are derived. Please note that on this page, every single R% is calculated with the most recent version of the target. That explains why some R% are different from what you see for the most recent episode in the SpotVault.

Collapse/Resilient - The 5th and 95th percentile of the future True projections. The final True average should end up somewhere between Collapse and Resilient 90% of the time.

Aired - How many episodes of the series have aired this season. This number is very important in turning the raw True average into the projection, because shows early in their orders (especially new shows) are expected to drop a lot.

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Monday, October 17, 2016

NBC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

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