ABC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

Monday, October 17, 2016

ABC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

Note: You are viewing the Javascript-disabled version of this page, which updates less frequently. You may see more timely info on a Javascript-enabled browser. This is a look at Renewology for all ABC scripted series in 2016-17, updating every day as new ratings come in. See below the table for an explanation of the numbers.

These numbers are up to date through Saturday, October 15. (Includes preliminary broadcast ratings for Friday, October 14 and Saturday, October 15.)

Name	R%	True	Proj	Target	Collapse	Resilient	Aired
Grey's Anatomy	100%	1.98	1.98	0.87	1.60	2.36	4
Modern Family	100%	2.02	2.03	0.90	1.57	2.49	4
The Goldbergs	100%	1.71	1.72	0.90	1.37	2.07	4
Black-ish	98%	1.42	1.43	0.90	1.14	1.72	4
How to Get Away with Murder	98%	1.35	1.34	0.87	1.07	1.61	4
Designated Survivor	97%	1.56	1.40	0.87	1.04	1.76	4
The Middle	97%	1.66	1.48	0.90	1.07	1.89	1
Speechless	93%	1.44	1.29	0.90	0.96	1.62	4
Quantico	91%	1.27	1.23	0.87	0.88	1.58	2
Last Man Standing	90%	1.20	1.20	0.90	0.93	1.48	4
Fresh Off the Boat	87%	1.35	1.20	0.90	0.86	1.53	1
American Housewife	82%	1.64	1.18	0.90	0.75	1.62	1
Agents of SHIELD	75%	1.03	1.02	0.87	0.77	1.28	3
Dr. Ken	75%	1.04	1.05	0.90	0.81	1.29	4
Once Upon a Time	71%	1.00	0.99	0.87	0.75	1.24	3
The Real O'Neals	60%	1.09	0.96	0.90	0.69	1.24	1
Secrets and Lies	49%	0.91	0.87	0.87	0.68	1.05	2
Conviction	19%	0.86	0.69	0.87	0.46	0.91	2
Notorious	18%	0.78	0.70	0.87	0.52	0.88	4

R% - The renewal forecast based on the Renewology formula. See here for many details on how it comes together.
True - The show's rolling average in True, this site's timeslot-adjusted adults 18-49 rating. It is an average of just the last one-third of the total episodes aired this season, rounded up. This is the number that used to make up the True Power Rankings.
Proj - A mean projection of where the True averages will end up in the future. These projections, rather than the raw True average, are what go into the Renewology formula.

Target - The network/category-specific True average at which Renewology expects the R% to be exactly 50. (In other words, this is the formula's interpretation of the 'bubble.') See here for much more detail on how these targets are derived. Please note that on this page, every single R% is calculated with the most recent version of the target. That will explain why some R% are different from what you see for the most recent episode in the SpotVault.

Collapse/Resilient - The 5th and 95th percentile of the future True projections. The final True average should end up somewhere between Collapse and Resilient 90% of the time.

Aired - How many episodes of the series have aired this season. This number is very important in turning the raw True average into the projection, because shows early in their orders (especially new shows) are expected to drop a lot.

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Monday, October 17, 2016

ABC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

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