Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/20/16


FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.2) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.1) adjusted up.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • The formula agrees that it was a very promising night for both newbies, with This Is Us at 94% and Bull at 84%.
  • At least with these early PUT estimates, it puts all the returnees on strong footing as well. It seems too kind to SHIELD and the Fox veterans, but SHIELD gets a lot of credit for its very incompatible lead-in... and these may be shows that are prone to larger post-premiere declines than the formula expects out of a generic returnee.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • A promising premiere week for new shows continued into night two as the dramedy This Is Us had a very strong 2.8 start, leading out of two more hours of The Voice (3.1/3.6) which actually upticked slightly from premiere Monday. If it holds in finals, this will probably be an even bigger Plus than last year's Monday Blindspot premiere.
  • CBS' Michael Weatherly drama Bull (2.2) was also a big premiere night positive, actually building on its lead-in on premiere night. It was surrounded by the NCIS franchise, with the 8/7c mothership (2.1) down four tenths year-to-year and NCIS: New Orleans (1.4) barely hitting a new low in its move to 10/9c.
  • Fox opened its Tuesday season with comedies Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.0) and New Girl (1.2) leading into the season two premiere of Scream Queens (1.0). Nothing broke out, but all these shows were up from their late-season results in 2015-16.
  • ABC continued its pre-debates holding pattern into Tuesday, with a special edition of Dancing with the Stars (1.5) leading into incompatible Marvel's Agents of SHIELD (1.1) at 10/9c. It'd be a fine start to SHIELD's 10/9c life, though, as this would beat every episode since the spring premiere. 
FULL TABLE (FINALS):
ShowTimeslotRenewology
Name
A18-49
Last
y2y
TLa
Ty2y
R%
Last
True
Last
Dancing with the Stars Special1.5
0%
+94%
-23%
1.56
Agents of SHIELD1.1
-35%
+175%
-27%
85%1.34
ABC:
+110%
-24%
NCIS2.2
-12%
+22%
-12%
98%2.00
Bull2.2
+175%
+29%
82%1.88
NCIS: New Orleans1.4
-18%
+75%
-26%
76%1.37
CBS:
+71%
-5%
The Voice Tue Fall3.4
-3%
+21%
-3%
2.82
This Is Us2.8
+75%
+33%
94%2.30
NBC:
+33%
+5%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine1.1
-27%
+120%
-35%
87%1.23
New Girl1.2
-14%
+200%
-29%
92%1.35
Scream Queens1.0
-41%
+150%
-41%
58%1.08
Fox:
+153%
-37%
The Flash (R)0.3
0%
-25%
0.39
MADtv0.2
0
0%
-50%
0.27-0.10
CW:
0%
-38%
All:
+61%
-13%
Atlanta0.48
-0.08
Halt and Catch Fire0.10
-0.03
-41%

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