WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Empire (4.8) adjusted up while Survivor (2.0) and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (1.3) adjusted down. (So did The Middle (R) (1.1)).
- The return of Empire (4.7) went about as well as Fox could've hoped for. Not only is it still enormous, but it actually topped the fall finale by (at least) two tenths and beat all of the last five fall ratings. It also lifted Rosewood (1.4) from its recent 0.9-1.0 level all the way back to what would've been a fairly typical pre-Empire rating in the fall, with a typically back-loaded half-hour breakdown (1.2 -> 1.6).
- Empire's return wasn't particularly brutal to the competitors, either; Criminal Minds (1.8) was down by four tenths from last week's Shemar Moore departure, but this still went down as Minds' second-best rating of the season with Empire competition. (Now, the question is whether Paget Brewster's return helped with this rating.) And Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (1.4) shed just a tenth again in week three, while Survivor (2.1) was even.
- On NBC, it was a low-end night for Law and Order: SVU (1.4) against the return of Empire, but Chicago PD (1.5) made up for it with a rise at 10/9c. And Heartbeat clung to 0.9 for another week at 8/7c.
- The CW's superhero redemption week continued as Arrow shot back up to 0.9, a rating it hit several times even before DST. Supernatural stayed at 0.6.
- And ABC ducked the Empire return with comedy repeats (1.2/1.2/1.3/1.1), while Nashville held at 0.9 despite the reduced lead-in.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (2.4) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.9) adjusted up while Chicago Fire (1.7) adjusted down, as did Beyond the Tank (0.5) into full-on Of Kings and Prophets territory.
- NBC's Chicago Med (1.8) and Chicago Fire (1.8) finally returned after over a month off. Med handily outrated almost all of its episodes during The Voice's hiatus, but was down from its last couple post-Voice eps. Fire was up a couple ticks from its last two winter episodes, though it had several 1.8's earlier in the year.
- At 8/7c, The Voice was down again to 2.3, though this was one of its better Tuesday year-to-year trends this spring.
- ABC's struggling Tuesday lineup was mostly steady with Fresh Off the Boat (1.2), The Real O'Neals (1.0), Agents of SHIELD (1.0) getting out of fraction-town, and no week two help for Beyond the Tank (0.6).
- The CW's The Flash (1.3) rebounded nicely after a modest return from hiatus last week. It doesn't seem to be much related to Monday's Supergirl crossover (as it didn't really skew any older), but probably more just a bounce-back from underachieving last week. iZombie had another 0.5.
- CBS had repeats of the NCISes (1.2/1.2) leading into a James Corden special (0.9) at 10/9c.
- And Fox offered up another weird mix of originals (New Girl (0.9) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.8)) and repeats (Grandfathered (0.5) and The Grinder (0.4)).
These numbers are current through Monday, March 28.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Added a few shows to the table, several of which have been on for awhile. A few things worth pointing out:
- FX's mega-acclaimed The Americans was back with a 0.28 two weeks ago and inched up to 0.29 last week. The 0.29 is actually kinda significant for a show that has typically taken enormous post-premiere drops; while the premiere was down fifty-six percent from the 2015 premiere, week two was down just 17%.
- WGN America has had some more success of late with the new dramas Outsiders and Underground, both of which have been in the 0.2's in recent weeks. Doesn't seem like much, but it's a massive improvement on the micro-rated (and recently cancelled) Manhattan, and also better than the 0.1-range ratings that previous flagship original Salem was pulling last summer.
- Also added MTV's Awkward and Faking It back to the list. After really rough spring premieres at 0.25/0.13, they rebounded considerably to 0.31/0.21 in week two.
WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.6
Lead-in: Criminal Minds (1.9)
Competition: Nashville (0.9),
Chicago PD (R) (0.9)
WHAT MATTERS:
- CBS' Supergirl (1.7) got a major charge from a crossover event with The Flash, posting its highest rating since early February. Since we're post-DST, this could be the show's Truly strongest performance since the very early weeks of the show (maybe even week two).
- It may have helped Scorpion (1.6) a touch as well, as that show gained a tenth from last week. But NCIS: Los Angeles (1.2) inched down.
- On NBC, it looks like the six-week streak of declines for Blindspot (1.6) is finally coming to an end, as even a downward adjustment in finals would have it steady week-to-week. The Voice held at 2.8.
- ABC saw Dancing with the Stars (1.7) inch down from last week's premiere, while The Catch (0.7) got a pilot encore at 10/9c.
- Fox's Gotham (1.3) and Lucifer (1.2) were unfazed despite the CBS upswing, while the CW rebounded from last week with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) and Jane the Virgin (0.4).
WHAT MATTERS:
- Whether because of the holiday or the NCAA basketball regional finals on TBS, the broadcast networks had a brutal Easter Sunday. Hardest-hit by far was NBC, where a ton of air came out of the Little Big Shots (1.9) balloon in its third Sunday telecast, down a whooping seven tenths from last week. The lead-out comedies The Carmichael Show (1.0) and Crowded (0.8) collapsed right alongside it, though Hollywood Game Night stayed at 0.7.
- The ABC and CBS dramas were mostly down a tenth from last week; while not a decline on the NBC scale, it's not good news considering they were already not doing well to begin with. It meant more new lows for Once Upon a Time (1.0), The Family (0.6) and Quantico (0.9), while the CBS shows Madam Secretary (1.0), The Good Wife (0.9) and Elementary (0.8) merely tied their season lows.
- Fox ended up looking pretty smart to punt the night with a repeat of Grease Live! (0.4/0.4/0.5), and its regular comedy lineup will be back next week.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Sleepy Hollow (0.7) got a big finals uptick to avoid a new low. The March Madness games had a 1.3 and 1.9, down a lot from last year's 1.6/2.5.
- Only a couple networks were in the original entertainment game on this Friday; Fox saw Sleepy Hollow (0.6) take an unfortunate hit to a new low, but NBC had nothing unusual with Caught on Camera (0.7), Grimm (0.9) and Dateline (1.0). The assumed series finale of Second Chance was even at 0.5.
- CBS had March Madness (1.7/1.5/1.6), which will end up trailing last year's 1.6/2.5 on the same night.
- ABC had repeats of Last Man Standing (0.7), Dr. Ken (0.7) and Shark Tank (0.9) leading into an original 20/20 (0.9). CW repeated the vampire shows (0.2/0.2).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.1) adjusted up and The Blacklist (R) (0.5) adjusted down. Each of the two basketball games (1.5/2.3) were down four tenths from the year-ago edition.
- ABC's post-How to Get Away with Murder Thursdays will remain a struggle for another year, it appears, as The Catch opened with just a 1.2 demo rating and 5.8 million viewers. It skewed particularly old, retaining well over 90% of Scandal's total viewership but dropping by 25% from Scandal (1.6) in the demo. It seems that this didn't tap into the core TGIT audience despite being branded as part of the night. It was 40% behind last year's 2.0 American Crime premiere (which, to be fair, had nearly double the Scandal lead-in). And like Crime, it couldn't even get to How to Get Away with Murder's series low on premiere night. It will need an exceptional post-premiere hold to have a shot.
- At 8/7c, Grey's Anatomy (2.0) inched down but held off the ones for another week.
- CBS had another night of March Madness coverage, averaging a 1.9/1.8/2.1 in the prelims. More after finals, but it looks like this will not match the 1.9/2.7 finals for the games on this Thursday last year.
- It was very quiet elsewhere, with American Idol posting another 1.7 rating. NBC plowed through with another week of You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.6), The Blacklist (R) (0.6) and Shades of Blue (1.0). And the CW had repeats again (0.4/0.3).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (2.0), Survivor (2.1), Criminal Minds (2.2) and Chicago PD (1.4) adjusted up.
- On the last Empire-free Wednesday for a couple months, it was a big night for CBS' Criminal Minds (2.1), which surged to a new season high at 9/8c. That helped Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (1.5) take a very healthy week two drop and beat Chicago PD (1.3) head-to-head. Beyond Borders is not out of the woods yet, since Empire will be back next week and may hurt its lead-in somewhat. But this was a relatively encouraging sign. Survivor (2.0) inched down at 8/7c for CBS.
- NBC had worse newbie news as Heartbeat (0.9) couldn't crack a one in its opening Wednesday. If it can hold this 0.9 in a post-DST world, you could make a case that it's not really much weaker than previous occupant The Mysteries of Laura... but it would probably be fortunate to pull that off. Law and Order: SVU (1.5) was a bit below average and Chicago PD (1.3) hit a season low.
- ABC's lineup was mostly steady, with The Middle (1.7), Black-ish (1.9) and Nashville (0.9) even while Modern Family (2.4) and The Goldbergs (1.9) inched down.
- The CW saw its second straight superhero show, Arrow (0.7), return to a new season low by multiple tenths. And its second straight 9/8c occupant, Supernatural (0.6), was on the low end but not a new low.
- Fox's final sans Empire Wednesday saw Rosewood (1.0) and Hell's Kitchen (1.2) each perk up by a tenth.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (2.5) adjusted up and Grandfathered (R) (0.5) adjusted down.
- NBC's post-Voice preview tour continued with medical drama Heartbeat (1.4), which held just under 60% of its The Voice (2.4) lead-in. This was far below the premiere of Chicago Med (2.2) in this slot earlier this season. In comparing it to the comedy Voice previews, it was a little below last week's 10/9c hour of Crowded (1.7/1.4) but still a fair amount better than Telenovela (1.4/0.9) in December. We'll see how long (or at all?) it can avoid the zeroes when it leads off on Wednesday.
- NBC rounded out the night with a rare repeat of Chicago Fire (0.8), which is finally back from a long hiatus next week.
- The CW was back in business on Tuesday and saw a pretty substantial crash from The Flash (1.1), dealing with Daylight Saving Time for the first time this year. iZombie (0.5) also inched down to the low end of its normal range.
- On CBS, NCIS (2.0) held off its first ever trip into the ones for yet another week. And the rest of the CBS evening perked up nicely against a much weaker NBC: NCIS: New Orleans (1.8) and Limitless (1.3) were each up by two tenths.
- ABC was up a notch at 8/7c with Fresh Off the Boat (1.2) and steady at 1.0 with The Real O'Neals. But Agents of SHIELD (0.9) found yet another new low at 9/8c, and the emergency return of Beyond the Tank (0.6) just barely beat last week's Of Kings and Prophets rating. It seems possible this could get better since there was so little time to promote BTT's return, but that's a rough number.
- On Fox, New Girl (1.0) was the only original. The repeats went 0.6/0.6/0.4.
These numbers are current through Monday, March 21.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Pretty Little Liars finished up its season with a 0.59, just barely topping its 0.55 series low from two weeks ago. Its -20% trend for the winter isn't that bad by cable standards, but it was very front-loaded... +12% for the premiere and down way over 20% in the later weeks. And the finale's 0.59 was less than half of the year-ago huge spike to 1.27.
- A&E's Damien disappointed with its 0.31 on premiere night and then fell huge, to 0.21/0.20 in the last two weeks. This week, it retained just a third of its lead-in from Bates Motel.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (2.8) adjusted up and Blindspot (1.5) adjusted down.
- ABC welcomed back Dancing with the Stars (1.8), as usual a significantly weaker player among adults 18-49 than its midseason filler The Bachelor. This was a low-teens decline from last year's spring premiere (2.1) as well as the last fall premiere. But since it's already facing The Voice, it should hold pretty close to this moving forward if last spring was any indication.
- Castle had its usual 1.1 at 10/9c.
- Most of the competitors were very close to even in A18-49 against the new competition, though the older-skewing DWTS tended to take away some out-of-demo viewers. The biggest exception was NBC's The Voice (2.6/2.9), which continued its demo slippage. Blindspot (1.6) matched last week's final number but could be a threat to adjust down to a new low.
- CBS' Supergirl (1.3), Scorpion (1.5) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.3) as well as Fox's Gotham (1.3) and Lucifer (1.2) all matched last week's prelims (though Scorpion later adjusted up in finals).
- And the CW was back from a week off with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.2) and Jane the Virgin (0.3) both inching down.
WEEK ZERO (Wednesday 8:30/7:30c preview)
Rating: 1.8
Lead-in: The Goldbergs (2.1)
Competition: Survivor (2.2),
The Mysteries of Laura (1.2),
Rosewood (0.9),
Special: Greatest Animal Commercials (0.3)
WEEK ZERO-2 (Wednesday 9:30/8:30c preview)
Rating: 1.9
Lead-in: Modern Family (2.6)
Competition: Criminal Minds (1.9),
Law and Order: SVU (1.6),
Hell's Kitchen (1.0),
Special: MADtv 20th Anniversary Reunion (R) (0.3)
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: 60 Minutes (1.6), Madam Secretary (1.1) and The Carmichael Show (1.3) adjusted down, along with the repeat of The Simpsons (0.9).
- It was another Little Big Shots Sunday on broadcast TV, as the new hit dropped 10%ish in its second week to a 2.6 demo rating with 13.2 million total viewers. The Carmichael Show matched last week's final 1.4 at 9/8c (though it was a 1.5 in the prelims last week), and Crowded collapsed to 1.0 in its first Sunday 9:30 airing. Though it had looked fine in its Tuesday preview, this rating leaves Crowded with little case for a switch with Carmichael. Hollywood Game Night hung a weak 0.7 at 10/9c.
- Fox tried to take advantage of the holiday season with another dip in the live musical event pool. But The Passion (1.6) couldn't even get to half the rating of January's Grease Live! (4.3) or even NBC's December entry The Wiz Live! (3.4). It managed just two thirds the rating of Peter Pan Live! in 2014 (2.4), the previous standard for disappointment in this space. It was still an improvement on the network's usual comedy ratings on this night, but not by a huge margin.
- The Passion had little lead-in support from another new Ice Age holiday special at 7:30 (0.8), which dropped from its repeat The Simpsons lead-in (1.0).
- As last year, it was the second Sunday after DST when the ABC pain came; Once Upon a Time (1.1) took a two-tenth hit, while The Family (0.7) and Quantico (1.0) also inched down to new lows.
- And CBS had just over a 30-minute overrun from NCAA basketball, preliminarily boosting 60 Minutes (1.7) but not doing a whole lot for Madam Secretary (1.2/1.1) or The Good Wife (1.0). It also bumped the timeslot premiere of Elementary largely out of primetime, but we know it averaged just a 0.8 in the 10:30 half-hour (which would be toward the low end of CSI: Cyber's results in the slot).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WEEK ZERO (Thursday 9/8c preview)
Rating: 1.5
Lead-in: Grey's Anatomy (2.2)
Competition: Mom/
2 Broke Girls (1.7/1.7),
Blindspot (R) (0.4),
American Idol (2.0),
The 100 (0.5)
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Grimm (1.0) adjusted up and Shark Tank (1.3) adjusted down.
- After a weak start to its primetime March Madness coverage on Thursday, CBS perked up considerably for another three hours on Friday (1.4/2.2/1.7), featuring a 14-over-3 upset in the early game and a nail-biter in the late game. This should crush what CBS did on the opening Friday last year.
- Despite CBS' strength, the entertainment programming competitors were unfazed, including a one-tenth uptick across the board for ABC's lineup of Last Man Standing (1.2), Dr. Ken (1.0), Shark Tank (1.4) and 20/20 (1.2).
- NBC and Fox were business as usual, with the former airing Caught on Camera (0.7), Grimm (0.9) and Dateline (1.0) and the latter going with Sleepy Hollow (0.8) and Second Chance (0.5).
- CW had repeats of The Vampire Diaries (0.2) and The Originals (0.1).
WHAT MATTERS:
- The second season finale of How to Get Away with Murder posted a typical 1.4 rating, down by exactly half from its strong season one closer (2.8 on 2/26/2015). As usual, the biggest winner in the TGIT lineup was easily Grey's Anatomy (2.1), which matched last week despite airing in the hour that should be hardest hit by Daylight Saving Time. Scandal inched down to a new low 1.6 (though it had a prelim 1.6 last week and adjusted up).
- With two blowouts on its air, the first primetime night of March Madness on CBS averaged a preliminary 1.2/1.3/1.3 across the three hours. This will end up significantly below last year's 1.6/1.8 opening games.
- American Idol (1.6/1.7) was seemingly the only real DST victim on this Thursday, taking another hit to its ratings with the series end just three weeks away.
- NBC struggled again in the opening hours with You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.6) and a repeat of The Blacklist (0.5) but built big at 10/9c with Shades of Blue (1.0).
- And the CW began a two-week hiatus for its Thursday lineup with repeats of Legends of Tomorrow (0.4) and The 100 (0.2).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (2.0) and all the NBC repeats (1.0/1.0/0.9) adjusted up.
- CBS had a respectable but unspectacular start from new Criminal Minds spin-off Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders, which opened with 8.65 million viewers and a 1.6 demo rating at 10/9c. This is a tenth better than where Code Black opened in the fall, and about equivalent in Plus to where CSI: Cyber opened a year ago (1.8). It's not an overly gush-worthy performance since Criminal Minds itself (1.9) had another strong outing, and its main competitor Chicago PD (0.8) was in repeats. But it can definitely be a success if it holds up well from here (as the last NCIS spin-off New Orleans did).
- Also on CBS, Survivor (2.1) defied the Daylight Saving Time odds as usual and matched last week.
- ABC's lead-off comedy The Middle (1.7) hit a new season low in the face of DST, but the other comedies The Goldbergs (1.9), Modern Family (2.5) and Black-ish (1.9) managed to avoid a similar fate. Nashville (0.9) returned to ABC with lots of wedding promotion and rebounded by just a tenth from its series low fall finale.
- Fox's Rosewood turned in yet another 0.9 as it awaits the return of Empire in two weeks, while Hell's Kitchen inched down to 1.1. NBC (0.9/0.9/0.8) and CW (0.3/0.2) had repeats.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Crowded #1 (1.7) and The Flash (0.3) adjusted down.
- NBC handed out yet another post-The Voice preview, this time to the new sitcom Crowded with a 1.8 demo at 10:00, dropping to a 1.4 at 10:30. This puts it closer to the preview ratings of promising Superstore (2.0/1.6) compared with dud Telenovela (1.4/0.9), both of which aired after The Voice episodes that had very similar ratings to last night (2.6/2.9). At this level, Crowded does look stronger than The Carmichael Show, which it's slated to follow on Sundays going forward. But since this was a series premiere night, it may not be this solid beyond this night. It'll be interesting to see if this is enough to make NBC rethink the sitcoms' arrangement on Sundays.
- Week two for ABC's new Tuesday was a big step down, with Fresh Off the Boat (1.1) getting slammed three tenths by DST and the return of NCIS in the hour. And Of Kings and Prophets (0.5) fell to massive disaster levels by week two. In the middle were The Real O'Neals (1.0) and Agents of SHIELD (1.0), which had more modest drops but were still at new lows.
- CBS held up quite well against DST, with NCIS (2.0), NCIS: New Orleans (1.6) and Limitless (1.1) all matching their last originals. The 300th episode of the NCIS mothership may have helped.
- DST was unwelcome news for New Girl (1.0), which hit a new season low by two tenths. The 9:00 shows Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.8) and The Grinder (0.6) tied their season lows from two weeks ago, with Grandfathered (0.5) in repeat mode at 8:30.
- And the CW continued its Tuesday hiatus with repeats of The Flash (0.4) and iZombie (0.2).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Bachelor (2.9) and Scorpion (1.6) adjusted up, while "After the Final Rose" (2.6) and Blindspot (1.6) adjusted down.
- Added a "Last" column for the True metric in the table below, which I hope will be an interesting way of accounting for the DST effect this week.
- ABC wrapped up The Bachelor with a 2.8 rating for the two-hour finale and a 2.7 for "After the Final Rose" at 10/9c. As is typical of Bachelor finales, these were the highest numbers of the season. And both numbers matched Bachelor's year-ago finale night, finishing out a very strong season that was close to flat in raw numbers throughout.
- After some strong holds on Sunday, the arrival of Daylight Saving Time took a toll on some of the early Monday offerings. NBC's The Voice dipped to 3.0, a little over 20% behind the year-ago evening, while Blindspot (1.7) was even.
- On CBS, it was Supergirl (1.3) falling a tenth, while Scorpion (1.5) was even and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.3) had a small recovery.
- Fox's Gotham (1.3) got the worst of DST, down two tenths to match its low from the fall. Lucifer (1.2) inched down to another new low.
- CW had repeats of Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.2) and Jane the Virgin (0.2).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: 60 Minutes (1.2) adjusted up while the 9:00 The Carmichael Show (1.4) and Hollywood Game Night (0.8) adjusted down.
- Little Big Shots had an even bigger wow moment in its second episode, posting a huge 2.8 rating for the Sunday premiere. It nearly matched the 2.9 it got in the post-The Voice preview on Tuesday (and may be close to matching it after finals with a 2.6 -> 3.1 breakdown). It also had about two million more total viewers (14.8 million total) than in that preview. This now looks like a major game-changer for NBC's spring fortunes.
- This helped vault The Carmichael Show to a new series high 1.5 at 9:00 (even if it was barely over 50% retention). And it then plummeted to 1.1 for the second original at 9:30. It did not much help Hollywood Game Night (0.9), which was on the low end as it moved to the Sunday 10:00 hour.
- On ABC, the network got some minor relief as Once Upon a Time (1.3), The Family (0.8) and Quantico (1.1) were all able to hold last week's spring premiere numbers, while America's Funniest Home Videos (1.1) returned to improve the 7:00 hour.
- Steadiness was also the word on Fox, with roughly steady showings from Bordertown (0.8), Bob's Burgers (1.0), The Simpsons (1.3), Cooper Barrett's Guide (0.8), Family Guy (1.4) and The Last Man on Earth (1.1). Bordertown looks to have gotten some help from a NASCAR lead-in again?
- CBS had a rather irregular lineup with the tail end of the NCAA basketball Selection Show (1.4), 60 Minutes (1.2/1.1) and a 90-minute Scorpion repeat (0.7/0.7/0.8) leading into the season/series finale of CSI: Cyber (1.0).
These numbers are current through Thursday, March 10.
WHAT MATTERS:
- A&E's Bates Motel was back for season four with a 0.66, down by 28% from last year's premiere.
Lately I've added all the URLs for daily ratings pages to my database, allowing me to create some automated ways to allow for easier navigation of these pages. Here's a very quick description of the three new methods:
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Blue Bloods (1.2) and Whose Line? (0.2) adjusted down.
- Last Man Standing (1.1) and Shark Tank (1.3) returned to originals on ABC... but as well as Dr. Ken did without them last week, it fell to a new low (0.9) with them this week. 20/20 (1.1) benefited more at 10/9c.
- Pending possible basketball pre-emptions, CBS was down a bit at 8/7c with The Amazing Race (1.0), even at 9/8c with Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) and up a touch at 10/9c with Blue Bloods (1.3).
- NBC had Caught on Camera (0.7), Grimm (0.9) and Dateline (0.9), with Grimm giving back last week's uptick.
- Fox's Sleepy Hollow (0.8) inched up from last week's low while Second Chance (0.5) was even.
- And the CW averaged a 0.3 with repeats of Howie Mandel's "Just for Laughs" special and Whose Line Is It Anyway?.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Scandal (1.7) dodged a new low with an upward adjustment in finals. CBS and NBC took some hits, presumably due to basketball pre-emptions: Life in Pieces (2.0), Mom (1.7), 2 Broke Girls (1.6), Elementary (1.0), You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.5) and Law and Order: SVU (0.6) each went down a notch.
- CNN's GOP presidential debate (2.39) was down roughly a third from the Fox News debate last week.
- The return of Scandal (1.6) didn't exactly re-energize TGIT; it and Grey's Anatomy (2.1) each inched down a tenth, while How to Get Away with Murder (1.4) could not recover from last week's low after The Family.
- The Big Bang Theory (3.5) was also back on the original scene and down a bit from recent airings, though Life in Pieces (2.1) and 9/8c anchor Mom (1.8) each benefited as usual. 2 Broke Girls (1.7) and Elementary (1.1) were flat.
- Fox had another two hours of American Idol (1.8), and it looks like the show's 2.0+ streak is definitively over this time.
- NBC fared a bit better than last week by plugging a repeat of Law and Order: SVU (0.7) in at 9/8c rather than last week's Blindspot. You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.6) inched up from last week, and Shades of Blue turned in another 1.0 at 10/9c.
- And on the last Thursday before DST, the CW took an unwelcome hit to Legends of Tomorrow (0.7) and The 100 (0.4).
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Carmichael Show (1.0) adjusted down.
- NBC took the Wednesday crown with The Voice's "Best of the Blind Auditions" special (2.0/2.1), which came close to matching the fall version's 2.2 even though the fall one aired on a regular Voice night. That led into a mediocre return from summer comedy The Carmichael Show (1.1), airing a one-off preview at 10/9c before it moves to Sunday after Little Big Shots later in the week. And a repeat of a season one Carmichael episode fell to 0.7 at 10:30.
- CBS inched down at 8/7c with Survivor (2.1), then went off the map at 9/8c with the Victoria's Secret Swim Special (0.7). This special bombed even harder than last year's edition, when it severely disappointed with a 1.0 on a Thursday. Given this rejection, another special Wednesday CSI: Cyber did OK to get back to 1.0 at 10/9c.
- ABC's comedy lineup went into repeats (1.1/1.1/1.2/1.2), but the finale of American Crime (0.9) still inched up at 10/9c.
- Fox's Rosewood stayed at last week's weak 0.9, but the news was better at 9/8c as Hell's Kitchen (1.2) rebounded.
- And CW had repeats of Arrow (0.3) and Supernatural (0.3).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Limitless (1.1) got a much-welcome upward adjustment to avoid a rounded new low. Among the repeats, NCIS: New Orleans (1.2) adjusted up and The Flash (0.3) adjusted down.
- NBC had a sensational start from new reality series Little Big Shots (2.9), which retained the vast majority of its lead-in from The Voice (a 3.1 overall and 3.5 in the 9:30 half-hour). Only Supergirl (3.1) and fellow Voice lead-out Blindspot (3.1) have started better among series premieres this season. It's settling in on Sunday at 8/7c later this week, which will be a much tougher timeslot, but it's hard to see it not doing good business after this kind of initial sampling.
- ABC revamped its Tuesday to mixed results (if we're being kind):
- There was improvement in the 8/7c hour, where Fresh Off the Boat (1.4) swung up. The Real O'Neals (1.1) had a pretty modest start at 8:30 but at least beat all the 2016 episodes of The Muppets.
- The return of Agents of SHIELD (1.1) at 9/8c also improved on what the network had been doing with Agent Carter this winter, but it was a new low for the show by two tenths.
- And there was no real interest in long-delayed newbie Of Kings and Prophets (0.8), which started even below Wicked City and could be in pull-me-now territory in short order.
- On CBS, only Limitless (1.0) was original, but it dropped to yet another new low as NCIS: New Orleans (1.1) and NCIS (1.1) went into repeats.
- Fox was original in just the first hour, as the so-called 100th episode of New Girl (1.2) was even as it welcomed back Zooey Deschanel. Grandfathered was also flat at 0.8, while repeats of Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.6) and The Grinder (0.5) went low.
- The CW had repeats of The Flash (0.4) and iZombie (0.3).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Jane the Virgin (0.4) adjusted up and Blindspot (1.7) adjusted down.
- Week two of The Voice (3.2) began with a two-tenth decline from last Monday, keeping its year-to-year slippage in the high teens. Blindspot was able to hold last week's 1.8, which would be at least a slightly encouraging result... but with a 1.9 -> 1.6 breakdown it could be close to a downward adjustment.
- ABC's The Bachelor (2.2) also slumped, as is typical of the penultimate "The Women Tell All" episode. It was a couple tenths behind the same episode last year.
- Elsewhere, CBS went into repeats and there was a ton of steadiness otherwise. ABC's Castle (1.1) and Fox's Gotham (1.5) and Lucifer (1.3) all matched last week, with Gotham clearly emerging as one of the very few shows to hold up well across a long hiatus this season. CW's Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) and Jane the Virgin (0.3) were also even.
- The CBS repeats included an hour of The Big Bang Theory (1.5/1.7), followed by Scorpion (1.2) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.0).
These numbers are current through Thursday, March 3.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Slow premiere week, but there were a couple season finales. MTV's The Shannara Chronicles (0.40) headed to the bubble with its best rating in four weeks. Given that it only started with a 0.48, this show held on decently enough in the post-premiere episodes. But is a 0.4ish same-day rating enough for a likely expensive fantasy epic? To be seen...
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Madam Secretary (1.1) and Once Upon a Time (R) (0.6) adjusted down.
- ABC had a rough start to its return to Sunday drama programming, with The Family (0.8) completely bombing in its timeslot premiere at 9/8c. That means it's gonna be another rough (if not even rougher) run of lead-in support at 10/9c for Quantico (1.1), which was back at a new low. And Once Upon a Time (1.3) didn't fare much better at 8/7c, tying its low from the last couple fall episodes.
- Fox also shuffled the deck on Sunday, and at least in the prelims Bordertown (1.5) actually got an inflation in its move to 7/6c due to a late-afternoon NASCAR lead-in. It's possible/probable that this number includes some NASCAR coverage, so stay tuned for updates.
- The rest of the lineup looked fairly normal with Bob's Burgers (1.1), The Simpsons (1.3), sore spot Cooper Barrett's Guide (0.8) and Family Guy (1.3). And the network improved markedly at 9:30 with the return of The Last Man on Earth (1.1).
- NBC will be back in the entertainment series game next Sunday but did rather well this week with a two-hour The Voice repeat (0.8/1.3) and a two-hour Dateline (1.4).
- And CBS' lineup of 60 Minutes (1.3), Madam Secretary (1.2), The Good Wife (0.9) and CSI: Cyber (0.8) inched down in the second half of the night.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Grimm (1.0) adjusted up. This was the first time it broke 1.0 in almost four months.
- Many of Friday's biggest programs went into repeats on the first Friday after February sweeps. But this proved a good opportunity for Dr. Ken (1.1) to show its value, as its original was up a tenth week-to-week even sandwiched between repeats of Last Man Standing (0.9) and Shark Tank (1.1). 20/20 (0.9) also bounced back a bit for ABC.
- NBC's Grimm (0.9) was back from a week off at normal levels, while Dateline (0.9) fell at 10/9c.
- The Amazing Race (1.1) was the lone CBS original, as Hawaii Five-0 (0.8) and Blue Bloods (0.9) aired repeats.
- Fox's Sleepy Hollow (0.7) inched back down to the low end, while Second Chance held at 0.5.
- And CW's The Vampire Diaries (0.4) and The Originals (0.4) gave back their crossover bumps.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: American Idol (2.0) adjusted up. The Fox News debate (3.62) was easily the biggest program of the night, and it was about a third ahead of last week's CNN debate.
- ABC previewed new drama The Family to just 5.7 million viewers and a 1.5 demo rating, barely retaining two-thirds of the demo from its Grey's Anatomy lead-in (2.2). This concept is probably going to skew older than the TGIT norm, so it may have been more affected by a huge Republican debate on Fox News. But this is still a disappointingly modest starting point as it heads to Sunday later this week.
- While Grey's Anatomy (2.2) was up a notch to lead off the night, How to Get Away with Murder (1.4) inched down at 10/9c with a reduced lead-in.
- With The Big Bang Theory in repeats, Life in Pieces (1.8) couldn't pull off another improbable 100% week-to-week hold; it dropped by three tenths this time. But that's still relatively healthy behavior given TBBT (1.9) was reduced by nearly two full points from last week.
- The network held up better as the night wore on with Mom (1.7) down just a tenth, then 2 Broke Girls (1.7) and Elementary (1.1) were even.
- NBC also sat out its biggest gun on Thursday, bombing in the first two hours with You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.5) and a repeat of Blindspot (0.4). But Shades of Blue (1.0) proved resilient at 10/9c, matching last week.
- American Idol (1.9) won again on Thursday but couldn't continue its run in the twos, at least in the prelims (but it looks like it might be close to adjusting up).
- And the CW's Legends of Tomorrow held on at 0.9, while The 100 (0.5) gave back last week's uptick.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (2.1) adjusted up.
- ABC opened new comedy The Real O'Neals with a 1.8 demo at 8:30 (retaining 90% of its The Goldbergs (2.0) lead-in), and then a 1.9 for a second preview episode at 9:30 (dropping noticeably from Modern Family's 2.6). This is on par with or slightly below what the normal Wednesday comedies do, which usually wouldn't be a great sign on a series premiere night. But the key here is how much translates to its regular Tuesday timeslot, where expectations will be a lot lower.
- At 10/9c, American Crime inched back down to 0.8.
- On Fox, Rosewood (0.9) had a dreadful return to the schedule after three months off, going three tenths below even its Thanksgiving Eve low point (and a half point behind any other episode). It was always clear from its back-loaded half-hour breakdowns that it was getting a lot of help from Empire pre-tune, but it's pretty sobering to see just how much.
- With a much-reduced lead-in, Hell's Kitchen (1.0) also took a big downswing for Fox.
- CBS' Survivor (2.2) finally flexed some muscle after a couple modest opening weeks, surging by three tenths from last week. Criminal Minds (1.9) was also on the upswing, and that helped CSI: Cyber (1.2) hit a season high in a special Wednesday episode. (This would've been a fairly typical number for previous occupant Code Black, including matching its finale last week.)
- In its last case for renewal, The Mysteries of Laura (1.2) got a pretty decent season finale upswing, ending on the high end of its consistent 1.0-1.2 range. Later in the night, Law and Order: SVU (1.6) inched up while Chicago PD (1.5) gave up a tenth.
- And the CW's comic book show hiatus continued with a Greatest Animal Commercials special (0.3) and a repeat of the MADtv reunion (0.3) first aired in January.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: New Girl (1.2) and ABC's Super Tuesday hour (0.7) adjusted up.
- NBC's The Voice returned to the Tuesday scene with a 3.0 average from 8:00 to 10:00. This seems like a worse result than the Monday premiere, down by over 20% from the year-ago Tuesday premiere. But it's possible it got mucked up a bit by irregularities that come with the Super Tuesday politics coverage, so let's give it another week.
- Super Tuesday and the arrival of The Voice were pretty bad news for its broadcast opponents:
- CBS' NCIS (2.0) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.6) both had easily their worst ratings of 2016.
- Fox's comedy lineup of New Girl (1.1), Grandfathered (0.8), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.8) and The Grinder (0.6) saw the anchors each lose another tenth.
- ABC's finales of The Muppets (0.9/0.8) and Agent Carter (0.7) were fairly in line with recent results, but it'd be hard to say they made much of a renewal case.
- All the three-hour networks went into Super Tuesday coverage at 10/9c, with NBC (1.5) riding the Voice lead-in to outrate CBS (0.8) and ABC (0.6) combined.
- And the CW began a three week The Flash hiatus with a rebroadcast of the World Dog Awards (0.3/0.2).
The spring return of
The Voice is always one of the season's biggest sea changes. Before Monday's finals get in the books, here's a quick look at what happened in the network race while it was gone. This chart maps the cumulative season-to-date average for each network's original series by week.
WHAT MATTERS:
- NBC's The Voice returned to the airwaves with a dominant 3.4 rating, nearly matching the fall 2015 premiere (3.5) but noticeably behind the year-ago premiere in February 2015 (4.1).
- Its fall lead-out Blindspot limped back onto the scene with a new series low 1.8... it's not good news, as even the poster child for big hiatus drops, Revolution three years ago, was able to tie its previous low after the long hiatus. Blindspot should be able to remain an improvement on what The Night Shift did here last year, but it may not be a whole lot more than that long-term.
- Gotham (1.5) had an OK return on Fox, down a tenth from its fall premiere and fall finale. The new lead-in sent Lucifer (1.3) down by two tenths, almost exactly what would be expected with this lead-in drop. So even with the reduced lead-in, Lucifer seems like a passable player.
- CBS was the only network that really seemed to suffer against The Voice's return, with Supergirl (1.4), Scorpion (1.5) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.2) all declining even more from their mediocre results a week ago. It was a new low for both Supergirl and Scorpion.
- Like last year, ABC's female-skewing lineup was totally unfazed against the return of The Voice, with The Bachelor (2.5) and Castle (1.1) both matching last week.
- CW's Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) and Jane the Virgin (0.3) were also even.
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