WHAT MATTERS:
- It was a Friday full of schedule changes, including the back half of Fox's Wednesday/Friday switch. Second Chance collapsed to a 0.7 in its first Friday episode, barely retaining half of its MasterChef Junior finale (1.3) lead-in. The network lost 0.2 points week-to-week with this flip (+0.4 with Hell's Kitchen in the Wednesday 9/8c hour, -0.6 with Chance at 9/8c). But since Kitchen was inflated by a very high-PUT Friday last week, it was probably closer to a wash, Truly speaking.
- The CW also revamped Friday, and may be headed for another overachieving pair of W18-34 draws on the night. The Vampire Diaries (0.5) and The Originals (0.4) each matched their usual Thursday numbers in their first Friday episodes. Given what Legends of Tomorrow and The 100 have been doing on Thursday, this would be a huge win for the overall schedule.
- NBC said goodbye to Undateable, at least for now, with a one-hour finale (0.8) that took an odd drop from 0.9 to 0.7 at the half. That didn't help the return of Grimm (0.8), which had a poor return to the sked in only getting to the low end of its fall numbers. However, Dateline (1.4) made up for it with a well above average number at 10/9c.
- For once, ABC got a really nice number out of the struggling Shark Tank (1.7). But it didn't help the other two hours, which did nothing special with the 100th episode of Last Man Standing (1.2), Dr. Ken (1.1) and 20/20 (1.0).
- And CBS had Undercover Boss (1.3), down a notch from last week's inflated high but still above its previous Friday episodes this season. The crime dramas were in repeats (1.0/1.0), albeit pretty high-rated ones.
WHAT MATTERS:
- NBC opened new dramedy You, Me and the Apocalypse (1.2) to soft but not-totally-awful results, going a couple ticks above recent episodes of Heroes Reborn in the hour. It will have to do well going forward to stay at Heroes levels long-term (and it avoided both The Big Bang Theory and Grey's Anatomy on this night), but it may at least be able to meet the low expectations that come with a foreign co-production.
- And at least for now, Apocalypse wasn't a drag on the lead-out dramas, as The Blacklist hung yet another 1.6 at 9/8c. Shades of Blue inched back down to 1.3.
- It was an encouraging second week for the CW's new Thursday lineup, as Legends of Tomorrow (1.1) and The 100 (0.6) each dropped just a tenth in week two.
- CBS went with repeats of The Big Bang Theory (2.0), Mom (1.6) and The Big Bang Theory (1.7) in the first 90 minutes. The second TBBT meant the network was hitting its normal number at 9/8c, and thus the lead-out originals of Angel from Hell (1.4) and Elementary (1.1) stayed steady.
- ABC mercifully bid farewell to its uncompetitive bridge lineup of Beyond the Tank (1.1) and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7), each up a tenth from recent results. BTT will be back for one more Thursday at 10/9c leading out of the Madoff miniseries.
- And Fox's American Idol (2.3) quietly won another Thursday, down a tenth from last week. More on Fox News' Trump-less Republican debate after finals!
WHAT MATTERS:
- Fox moved Hell's Kitchen (1.4) to Wednesday as a quick replacement for drama Second Chance. Hell's was a definite upgrade on last week's Chance (1.0), but not that much higher than what it had been delivering on Friday alongside MasterChef Junior. It led out of American Idol (2.5), which easily topped the broadcast night.
- The CBS lineup didn't really take advantage of repeats elsewhere, as 2 Broke Girls (1.6), Mike and Molly (1.6), Criminal Minds (2.0) and Code Black (1.3) were all steady to slightly down.
- NBC and (mostly) ABC snuck in a night of repeats on the eve of February sweeps. ABC's only original was American Crime (0.9), which had a third straight downtick since the premiere. This one had a decent excuse since the lead-in comedies (1.3/1.2/1.4/1.2) were all in repeats. ABC's comedy repeats kept the network in third place, besting NBC's three drama repeats (0.8/1.0/0.9).
- And the CW's Arrow (1.1) and Supernatural (0.7) matched last week's winter premieres.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.2
Lead-in: American Idol (2.5)
Competition: Modern Family/
Black-ish (2.7/1.9),
Criminal Minds (2.0),
Law and Order: SVU (2.0),
The Flash (R) (0.4)
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Chicago Med (1.7) adjusted up.
- ABC stayed low on Tuesday with the return of What Would You Do? (0.7) at 10/9c, where it went much lower than its usual 1.0ish numbers from last summer. Agent Carter stayed at 0.9 at 9/8c, leading out of one last night of Tuesday comedy repeats with Fresh Off the Boat (0.9) and The Muppets (0.6).
- NBC was close to even across the board with Hollywood Game Night (1.2), Chicago Med (1.6) and Chicago Fire (1.8), as the competing CBS crime dramas went into repeat mode (1.4/1.2/0.8).
- Fox's comedies New Girl (1.2), Grandfathered (0.9), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.0) and The Grinder (0.7) mostly continued to trickle downward, as only Grandfathered was able to match last week.
- In a CW rarity, The Flash (1.4) actually managed to tie for the lead at 8/7c, and it was up a tenth from its return last week. Legends of Tomorrow added another 0.6 for a pilot encore at 9/8c.
The X-Files
Sundays, 10/9c, Fox
American Dad!
Mondays, 8:30/7:30c, TBS
The Magicians
Mondays, 9/8c, Syfy
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Superstore (1.5) adjusted up, now merely tying its timeslot low, and Scorpion (1.9) also added a tenth.
- Fox had a gangbusters start to its Monday revamp, as The X-Files (3.2) held onto over half of its enormous post-NFC Championship sampling and remained in megahit territory for a second episode. Perhaps equally impressive was how much of that crowd stuck around for the new drama Lucifer, which started at 9/8c with a highly robust 2.4 demo rating. That blew away all of Fox's other genre newbies this season and matched the September premiere of Rosewood (which led into a 6.7 episode of Empire).
- Most other networks were able to co-exist with this resurgent Fox pretty well. Supergirl (1.8) was a particular bright spot, holding even week-to-week against considerably more drama competition. It was actually Scorpion (1.8) that had more trouble, taking a two-tenth drop at 9/8c. NCIS: Los Angeles (1.5) also came down a notch at 10/9c.
- The Bachelor (2.3) also had no trouble with the added competition, hitting a new season high in week four and matching the year-ago evening. Bachelor Live (1.0) picked up a touch as well.
- NBC's comedies actually had the worst relative results against The X-Files, as Superstore (1.4) and Telenovela (0.9) were each down multiple ticks. Each will hit a new timeslot low barring an upward adjustment. But NBC had some consolation as The Biggest Loser (1.1/1.2) rebounded a bit.
- And the CW was finally back in original business on Monday, but had nothing unusual to report out of low-rated Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) and Jane the Virgin (0.4).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The X-Files adjusted up to an enormous 6.1 in finals, marking broadcast TV's second biggest entertainment episode of the season behind only the Empire season premiere. It nearly doubled last year's 3.2 from Scorpion in the same spot. After accounting for a 5-minute NFL overrun, CBS' two hours of 60 Minutes adjusted down to 1.8/1.1.
- Fox dominated NFL Championship Sunday in primetime, but probably wasn't particularly happy to see Carolina running away from Arizona late in the NFC Championship Game. The return of The X-Files started at 10:24 ET/7:24 PT and averaged a preliminary 5.1 demo rating in the 10:30 half-hour. Last year, Scorpion with a roughly similar start time averaged a 3.0 in the 10:30 prelim and adjusted to a 3.2 final, so The X-Files is clearly going to blow that out of the water. Stay tuned for time zone-adjusted numbers.
- The only entertainment original outside of Fox was week four of ABC's lowly Galavant, down another tenth to 0.5. It was surrounded by repeats of America's Funniest Home Videos (0.8) and Agent Carter (0.4).
- CBS rode an enormous lead-in from the afternoon's AFC Championship Game to dominate the non-Fox evening, averaging a 2.0 for 60 Minutes at 7:00, 1.2 for an additional hour at 8:00.
- NBC had Dateline (0.6) and their annual showing of the movie Bridesmaids (0.9).
These numbers are current through Thursday, January 21.
WHAT MATTERS:
- The most interesting thing in cable this week was TBS' highly unconventional 25-hour marathon of new comedy Angie Tribeca. The first-run eps on Sunday night averaged 0.44 -> 0.40 -> 0.36 -> 0.37 -> 0.34 -> 0.34 -> 0.31 -> 0.31 -> 0.26 -> 0.24, and the repeats across the rest of the 25 hours mostly hung in the 0.1-0.2 range. Tonight, it begins airing those 10 episodes on a more conventional weekly schedule. In this unique instance, I'm not really sure which to count as the "official" ratings, so for now I'm gonna wait and see what these Monday 9/8c ratings look like.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Only 20/20 (0.8) and Dateline (1.3) went down, so most of the prelim season highs held in finals. (And Dateline still had a season high even after the downward adjustment.)
- It will be interesting to see if the East Coast blizzard caused significantly higher viewing levels than usual for a Friday. At least for the individual programs, it seems to have been a boon; almost every original program tied or hit a season high. But it's possible some of these ratings will be shaved off in finals due to weather-related local news preemptions, so everything here should be taken with a grain of salt.
- CBS hit a preliminary Friday season high with Undercover Boss (1.4), tied a season high with Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) and hit a new season high with Blue Bloods (1.5).
- NBC threw on an episode of Caught on Camera with Nick Cannon (0.9) in place of Undateable, then hit a season high with Dateline (1.3/1.4).
- Fox hit new season highs with MasterChef Junior (1.5) and the final Friday airing of Hell's Kitchen (1.3), which will swap to Wednesday next week.
- ABC went into repeat mode with Last Man Standing (0.9), Dr. Ken (0.8) and Shark Tank (1.1), while 20/20 (0.9) followed them down.
- And Reign ended its current Friday stint with a high-end 0.4 in the prelims.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Blacklist (1.6) adjusted up and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.6) adjusted down. The CW's shows did not adjust, leaving The 100 with its first 0.7+ since the second week of the series (3/26/14).
- On perhaps the highest-stakes night of the season for the CW, the results were reasonably positive but not spectacular. DC's Legends of Tomorrow didn't come anywhere near the fall 2014 The Flash opener (1.9 on 10/7/14), but it still opened with a great-for-CW 3.14 million viewers and a 1.2 demo rating. That nestles it right between this week's episodes of The Flash (1.3) and Arrow (1.1). As with any series premiere, it's unlikely to sustain this level, but it's certainly given itself a lot of room to work with.
- Leading out was the season three premiere of The 100, whose 0.7 preliminary rating would top anything from season two. It should be strongly stressed here that Legends of Tomorrow ran three minutes into the 9:00 hour, so The 100 will adjust down (at least in the un-rounded numbers). But the worst-case scenario is a tie with last season's high point, so it's a fine to good start either way.
- The big four generally had an encouraging night as well, as perhaps some viewers came back to broadcast from last week's GOP debate. The best news came on CBS, which got its first look at an original Life in Pieces (2.0) with a repeat lead-in from The Big Bang Theory (2.2). Life in Pieces was actually even with last week when TBBT had a 3.8, a rather shockingly strong hold that makes the show's best renewal case yet.
- The network also held up well in the last two hours with Mom (1.7), Angel from Hell (up a tenth to 1.4 in week three) and Elementary (1.1).
- NBC had its own positive newbie result as Shades of Blue (1.4) recouped a tick after last week's big drop. Earlier in the night, the finale of Heroes Reborn (1.0) saw no bounce (perhaps hurt by the CW competition), while The Blacklist (1.5) inched down.
- The unscripted offerings were steady as American Idol (2.4) won the night again for Fox and ABC dropped into fifth place with Beyond the Tank (1.0) and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7/0.6).
Let's take a look at the fall 2015 season (the twenty-seventh overall) of
The Amazing Race on CBS.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Mike and Molly adjusted up to 1.7.
- With no more crossovers or other big events in the mix, the Wednesday crime drama strength shifted somewhat from NBC back to CBS. Law and Order: SVU (1.7) and Chicago PD (1.5) were both down significantly for NBC, while Criminal Minds (2.0) held onto last week's season high and Code Black (1.4) had a nice rebound. On a year-to-year basis, they're all doing pretty well but SVU is the big winner (as it had just a 1.3 against Empire on the year-ago evening).
- At 8/7c, The Mysteries of Laura held last week's 1.2 while 2 Broke Girls and Mike and Molly had a third straight week at 1.7/1.6.
- ABC's 8/7c hour continued a rather soft winter against CBS comedy competition, with The Middle (1.8) potentially headed for a new season low and The Goldbergs (2.0) not far off. At 9:30, Black-ish (1.7) was down two tenths as its lead-in Modern Family went into repeats (1.6). American Crime (1.0) dropped a tenth for the second straight week at 10/9c (but is still about on par with Nashville's timeslot average).
- On Fox, Second Chance (1.0) didn't do much with its second chance, taking a typical post-premiere drop that still leaves it in bad shape. American Idol inched down to 2.4.
- The CW was back in originals with a slightly above-average return from Arrow (1.1) and a barely below-average one from Supernatural (0.7).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
Reminder: the game for Shades of Blue is still open until 6am ET tomorrow!
WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.6
Lead-in: Mom (1.8)
Competition: My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7),
The Blacklist (1.6),
American Idol (2.7),
The Originals (R) (0.2)
WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.8
Lead-in: The Blacklist (1.6)
Competition: My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7),
Elementary (1.2)
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Hollywood Game Night adjusted up to a new season high 1.3, and Chicago Fire also went up to 1.8.
- ABC brought back its Tuesday bridge series Marvel's Agent Carter (0.9) with one of the season's most disappointing returnee results; this went at least three tenths below its season one low and was down about half from last year's series premiere. It led out of a Marvel special on 75 years of Captain America (0.9) at 8/7c, and week two doesn't offer a lot of hope for the future as Carter will have to lead out of comedy repeats.
- Carter just barely avoided the ultimate in Marvel vs. DC embarrassment: losing head-to-head against DC Comics preview specials. Though the CW had a low-end return from The Flash (1.3), it got really good numbers in the 9/8c hour with a half-hour preview of the upcoming series Legends of Tomorrow (0.9), followed by a preview of upcoming movies from DC Films (0.8) at 9:30.
- The NBC and CBS dramas came back to earth after huge crossover-boosted results two weeks ago.
- On CBS, NCIS (2.4) was down three tenths, and NCIS: New Orleans (1.8) was pretty much back to normal levels and down seven tenths. Limitless continued its very shaky start to 2016 with a new low 1.2.
- NBC had Hollywood Game Night (1.2), Chicago Med (1.6) and Chicago Fire (1.7). It was a new low for Med, but still a really solid rating since this was the first time it ever aired with no Voice and no crossover. Compared with what NBC was doing during last year's Tuesday Voice hiatus (fractional comedies at 9/8c and 1.5ish Chicago Fire at 10/9c), this lineup is quite an improvement.
- And Fox saw some minor comedy slippage with New Girl (1.3), Grandfathered (0.9), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.1) and The Grinder (even at 0.8).
Let's take a look at the 2015-16 season (the fifth overall) of
American Horror Story on the FX.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Bachelor (2.2) and Superstore (1.7) adjusted up. The Bachelor moved into a tie with its season premiere, while Superstore was just a tenth shy of the timeslot premiere two weeks ago.
- CBS' drama Monday was back in originals, with Supergirl (1.8) and Scorpion (2.0) giving back a bit of their big spikes from two weeks ago but staying well ahead of their usual late fall numbers. NCIS: Los Angeles (1.6) matched its season high from two weeks ago.
- Most of the shows that had to face last week's college football championship got back a tenth this week, including The Bachelor (2.1) on ABC, plus NBC's still promising Superstore (1.6) and not-as-promising Telenovela (1.1).
- On the other hand, struggling The Biggest Loser (1.0) and Bachelor Live (0.9) shed a tenth. Perhaps Loser was nicked by some added unscripted competition from Fox, where a two-hour celebrity MasterChef special averaged a solid 1.5.
- A week before its female-skewing dramas return, the CW averaged a 0.4 for a Howie Mandel "Just for Laughs" special, plus 0.3 for a repeat of Whose Line Is It Anyway?
Let's take a look at the fall 2015 season (the twenty-first overall) of
Dancing with the Stars on ABC.
Reminder: the game for Superstore is still open until 6am ET tomorrow!
WEEK ZERO (December 7 previews)
Rating: 1.4 (10:00) /
0.9 (10:30)
Lead-in: The Voice (2.8)
Competition: The Great Holiday Baking Show (0.9),
NCIS: Los Angeles (1.4)
The show also aired a mostly unpromoted "original" that had previously been available online on December 28, to a 0.6 rating.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Adjusting for live West Coast viewing meant NBC's Dateline went down to 0.6/1.0, while the presidential debate was up to a 2.1. 60 Minutes adjusted up to 4.8 (its highest rating in over three years), and Family Guy (1.7) and The Good Wife (1.4) also went up a notch.
- CBS got a turn at a playoff NFL lead-in, and it looks like Denver and Pittsburgh (with a preliminary 12.0 in the 7:00 hour) provided a far bigger one than Fox got last week. That helped boost 60 Minutes (4.7), Madam Secretary (2.0) and even The Good Wife (1.3) at 10/9c to new season highs. Madam would actually tie its series high from last season if it holds in finals. (And they probably won't adjust much since they actually started exactly on time.)
- Over on Fox, there were significant week-to-week drops from last week's NFL-boosted results with the return of Bob's Burgers (1.0), then The Simpsons (1.8), Cooper Barrett's Guide (1.2), Family Guy (1.6) and Bordertown (1.2). But maybe the NFL exposure last week actually helped a smidge, as the new comedies were even with (Cooper) or up a tick from (Bordertown) their premieres two weeks ago, even as the animated anchors were down a bit. They're still not impressive, but these ratings in week three don't look quite as bad as they did in week one.
- ABC had another brutal winter Sunday; the Galavant nightmare continued as it stayed flat at a 0.6 rating, even against probably the easiest competitive situation it will face in its five-week run. America's Funniest Home Videos (0.8) stayed low against the end of the huge CBS game, while Quantico got 0.3/0.4 for two more repeats.
- And NBC had two hours of Dateline (0.8/1.1) leading into a Democratic presidential debate (1.9). It edged the previous two debate averages in broadcast primetime (1.7 on November 14 and 1.3 on December 19), though those were both on Saturdays.
These numbers are current through Thursday, January 14.
WHAT MATTERS:
- It was a promising opening night as ABC Family made a channel name
change to Freeform; first was the premiere of amazingly resilient Pretty Little Liars
(1.06), which was actually up a tenth from its last winter premiere
(presumably still riding the high from the huge 1.39 summer finale).
- That led into newbie Shadowhunters (0.76), which was one of the network's most impressive recent premieres. For comparison, summer 2014 lead-out Chasing Life and summer 2015 lead-out Stitchers each opened with a 0.53 out of 1.1ish PLL lead-ins.
Reminder: the games for Cooper Barrett's Guide and Bordertown are still open until 6am ET tomorrow!
WEEK ZERO (November 30 previews)
Rating: 2.0 (10:00) /
1.6 (10:30)
Lead-in: The Voice (2.8)
Competition: The Great Holiday Baking Show (1.2),
NCIS: Los Angeles (R) (1.1)
The show also aired a mostly unpromoted "original" that had previously been available online on December 28, to a 0.8 rating.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Dr. Ken adjusted down to a new low 1.0. The CW's upticks did not hold in finals as Reign and Penn and Teller each adjusted down to 0.3.
- Fox brought back long-running cooking competition Hell's Kitchen (1.1) for its first ever Friday run. It was down three tenths from its last premiere in March, but able to match what it was doing at the end of that season. Seems good for a Friday move, though it got a lot of help from fellow Gordon Ramsay series MasterChef Junior (1.4), which held onto last week's season high.
- As the weaker Hell's replaced Junior at 9/8c, the ABC unscripted lineup of Shark Tank (1.4) and 20/20 (1.1) was able to rally a bit from last week's ugly results. It was business as usual in the 8:00 hour for Last Man Standing (1.3) and Dr. Ken (1.1).
- CBS had another night of small declines with Undercover Boss (1.1), then dramas Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) and Blue Bloods (1.3) coming back a touch from last week's highs. NBC's Undateable (0.8), Superstore (R) (0.6) and Dateline (1.2) all matched last week.
- And the CW is eyeing an uptick for Reign (0.4) (as well as the repeat of Penn and Teller: Fool Us (0.4)) in their penultimate airings before the vampire shows take over the night.
Undercover Boss
Sundays, 9/8c, CBS
Colony
Thursdays, 10/9c, USA
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.8) and The Blacklist (1.6) ticked up.
- USA's Colony opened with a very middling 0.44 rating. This was about on par with USA's summer launches of Mr. Robot (0.46) and Complications (0.41), and behind the Dig opener from a year ago (0.56).
- The Republican debate averaged a 1.85 in the demo with just over 11 million total viewers.
- Week two brought a disappointing drop for NBC's Shades of Blue (1.3), shedding a half-point (or over 25%) of last week's solid premiere. This exhausts a lot of the show's considerable premiere cushion, and it'll have to hold up pretty well from here just to stay on the bubbly tier with The Mysteries of Laura. Shades' lead-in The Blacklist (1.5) was down a tenth in its second episode of 2016, while the penultimate Heroes Reborn (1.0) was even.
- CBS' own week two newbie Angel from Hell also hit a 1.3. This is a more reasonable week-to-week drop from last week's 1.6 premiere, but that premiere was modest enough that this isn't exactly good news. It now seems pretty clearly weaker than most of the other middling CBS comedies. CBS had a slew of small drops elsewhere with The Big Bang Theory (3.7), Life in Pieces (2.0), Mom (1.7) and Elementary (1.1).
- It was a tough night for most of the unscripted options, too. Fox's American Idol (2.2) won another night in broadcast primetime but was down a half-point from last week (though just another low-teens decline year-to-year). ABC's Beyond the Tank held at 1.0, but My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.6) dropped a tenth from last week's already awful premiere. And The World Dog Awards on the CW (0.3) were down noticeably from last year's 0.5.
- These broadcast declines have at least some excuse as another big GOP debate aired on Fox Business. Household overnights suggest it was the lowest-rated debate yet this cycle (and about 15% below the previous FBN debate), but it still probably broke 10 million viewers. More after finals!
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
Let's take a look at the fall 2015 season (the twenty-second and final overall) of
America's Next Top Model on the CW.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Modern Family (2.7) adjusted up and Code Black (1.2) adjusted down.
- Fox's first new drama premiere of 2016 got off to a very poor start, as Second Chance opened with a mere 1.2 A18-49 rating and retained less than half of its American Idol (2.5) lead-in. It just barely edged the fall premiere of Minority Report (1.1), which had a point less of lead-in support, and fell well behind even the starts of recent post-Idol failures like Rake (1.7 two years ago) and Backstrom (1.9 last year). We'll see if it can benefit from the drama competitors maybe coming back to earth in future weeks, but don't get used to it long term.
- Second Chance got overshadowed by big nights from the crime dramas on CBS and NBC. Both Criminal Minds and a heavily-promoted Law and Order: SVU event tied season highs at 2.0; Minds last hit the number for the season premiere, and SVU when it had a Voice lead-in in November.
- Maybe even more impressive for NBC was Chicago PD's ability to match that 2.0 at 10/9c, beating even last week's crossover-fueled result. Meanwhile, Code Black (1.3) was down a bit for CBS, but most of its decent ratings at the end of the fall came with no PD competition, and this was still ahead of most of its mid-fall ratings.
- And at 8/7c, 2 Broke Girls (1.7) and Mike and Molly (1.6) matched last week's premieres, while The Mysteries of Laura (1.2) got a desperately-needed upswing following its poor start to the year.
- ABC had a somewhat soft comedy evening, with below-average results from The Middle (1.9), The Goldbergs (2.0) and Modern Family (2.6). However, Black-ish (1.9) continued to show slightly improved retention in a world without Empire.
- And it was another potentially hopeful night for the new season of American Crime (1.1), which was down just a tenth from last week's premiere. It's looking increasingly likely Crime can match or stay ahead of where it settled last season.
- Still awaiting next week's Legends of Tomorrow premiere event, the CW had solid repeats from Arrow (0.4) and The Flash (0.4).
See also the game for Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life!
WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.1
Lead-in: Family Guy (1.7)
Competition: Quantico (R) (0.4),
Limtiless (R) (0.8),
Sunday Night Football (7.9)
WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.2
Lead-in: The Simpsons (2.0)
Competition: Galavant (0.9),
Undercover Boss (1.6),
Sunday Night Football (7.9)
Let's take a look at the fall 2015 season (the fifth overall) of
Homeland on Showtime.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: New Girl (1.5) adjusted up and Hollywood Game Night (1.1) adjusted down.
- It was a promising opening night as ABC Family made a channel name change to Freeform; first was the premiere of amazingly resilient Pretty Little Liars (1.06), which was actually up a tenth from its last winter premiere (presumably still riding the high from the huge 1.39 summer finale).
- That led into newbie Shadowhunters (0.76), which was one of the network's most impressive recent premieres. For comparison, summer 2014 lead-out Chasing Life and summer 2015 lead-out Stitchers each opened with a 0.53 out of 1.1ish PLL lead-ins.
- Another big primetime event (President Obama's final State of the Union address) led to another quiet evening for the broadcast entertainment options. Only the 8/7c hour was available to the networks, and only two of the big four even ran originals in that hour. But they were mostly rewarded for their efforts; Fox's New Girl (1.4) and Grandfathered (1.0) as well as NBC's Hollywood Game Night (1.2) all had 100% holds in their second week in the timeslots.
- CBS still won the hour in repeat mode with NCIS (1.4), while ABC brought up the rear with more repeats of Fresh Off the Boat (0.8) and The Muppets (0.6).
- The CW often likes throwing originals up against big four simulcasts, and tonight was no exception as iZombie (0.5) returned from hiatus. It was a low-end-of-normal number for the show, which seems fine since it also had a much reduced (if still good) lead-in from a MADtv 20th anniversary special (0.6).
- The State of the Union coverage probably won't be available after finals since there were no ads, but NBC dominated the big four in the 9:00 hour with a preliminary 1.5 A18-49 rating over CBS (1.1), ABC (1.0) and Fox (0.7).
Let's take a look at the fall 2015 season (the thirty-first overall) of
Survivor on CBS.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Bachelor (2.0) and Scorpion (1.4) adjusted up.
- It was not a great night for college football as its title game averaged 25.667 million viewers and an 8.26 A18-49 rating (ESPN telecast only), down over 20% year-to-year on both counts. After a huge spike last year, this game basically reverted to the total viewership level of other games since the move to ESPN. But it was the lowest 18-49 rating since 2008 and the third-lowest in our 15-year records.
- The College Football Playoff Championship Game on ESPN provided a good excuse for a quiet night on broadcast, but NBC and ABC plowed through with their winter filler lineups. Perhaps with an assist from a weaker ESPN game that featured two teams in the South/Southeast, these shows held up a bit better than last year.
- The biggest drops came from NBC's 8/7c comedies. Superstore (1.5) was still a good lead-off option but took a three-tenth hit from last week, and Telenovela (1.0) took a three-tenth hit of its own. These shows had to deal with not just game coverage but also comedy competition as CBS filled Supergirl's off night with even stronger repeats of The Big Bang Theory (1.9/1.9).
- The Biggest Loser (1.0/1.1) rounded out NBC's night with a modest decline in the last two hours.
- And on ABC, The Bachelor (2.0/1.9) dropped somewhat as well, but that actually left it up in raw numbers vs. last year's rating
against the big game (when it dropped to 1.8). The after-show Bachelor Live (1.0) was even.
- The other three networks went into/stayed in repeat mode against the big game:
- CBS: The Big Bang Theory (1.9/1.9), Scorpion (1.3), NCIS: Los Angeles (1.0)
- Fox: MasterChef Junior (0.9/0.8)
- CW: Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.4/0.4), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (0.4)
Let's take a look at the fall 2015 season (the ninth overall) of
The Voice on NBC.
These numbers are current through Thursday, January 7.
WHAT MATTERS:
- MTV became the latest network to seek out its own Game of Thrones-esque franchise by premiering The Shannara Chronicles (0.48), an adaptation of a Terry Brooks novel, to relatively middling results. It led out of Teen Wolf (0.46) and had what seems like a pretty similar rating. But when breaking it down by gender, it's clear that this show brought a different audience to the table. It dropped from Teen Wolf's females 18-49 rating (from 0.57 to 0.45) and bled even more steeply in the usual MTV target of F12-34 (retaining less than half at 0.49 vs. 1.00). But it built noticeably in M18-49 (0.36 -> 0.51) and older demos.
- As for Teen Wolf, it didn't air during the winter last year, so its y2y comparisons will be vs. summer 2015. Its 0.46 was down 25% from the June 29 premiere.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Fox's comedies adjusted as follows: The Simpsons (3.6), Cooper Barrett's Guide (2.1), Family Guy (1.8), Bordertown (1.5). Thanks to the NFL, Cooper Barrett was up 75% from last week's premiere and Bordertown up 36%, but the comedies as a whole were down almost 30% from the night Fox had a playoff NFL lead-in last year (4.7/3.0/2.8/2.0 on 1/4/15). The Good Wife (1.1) also adjusted up.
- Week two for Fox's new Sunday comedies almost certainly brought an upswing due to a huge lead-in from the NFL playoffs. But we'll have to wait for finals since these shows all started at roughly 20 minutes after their regular timeslots on the East Coast.
- The prelims are 6.7 at 8:00 (20 minutes of NFL and 10 of The Simpsons), 2.8 at 8:30 (20 Simpsons/10 Cooper Barrett's Guide), 2.0 at 9:00 (20 Cooper Barrett/10 Family Guy), 1.6 at 9:30 (20 Family Guy/10 Bordertown) and 1.4 at 10:00 (20 Bordertown/10 local programming). More after finals!
- NBC dominated primetime with the Golden Globe Awards, which averaged 15.5 million viewers and roughly a 4.6 18-49 rating from 8:00 to 11:00. This rating typically adjusts up significantly since the live West Coast viewing isn't counted in these prelims; it had a 5.0 prelim/5.8 final last year, so it will probably end up declining a bit year-to-year.
- UPDATE: The time zone-adjusted numbers are 18.5 million viewers and a 5.5 A18-49 rating, each down just a bit from last year. Still, it outrated Gervais' previous hosting stints from 2010-12.
- CBS was back in the scripted original game with the returns of Madam Secretary (1.0), The Good Wife (1.0) and CSI: Cyber (1.0). That marks a new season low for Madam Secretary (which should get some help from the NFL next week), but was actually another above-average result for Cyber.
- And ABC's already rough winter Sunday lineup got further obliterated by the Globes, as America's Funniest Home Videos (0.8) and Galavant (0.6) each shed three tenths. That meant Galavant roughly matched its brutal percent drop from week two a year ago (and thus remained down over 50% year-to-year). Quantico repeats got 0.3.
College Football Championship Games
Golden Globe Awards on NBC
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) adjusted up and MasterChef Junior (1.4) adjusted down.
- The return of Friday entertainment originals brought another really good night for Fox, where two hours of MasterChef Junior (1.5/1.4) shot up to new season highs, and CBS, where Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) and Blue Bloods (1.4) had new season highs of their own. The CBS drama upswings came despite a just OK start to Undercover Boss' Friday run (1.2) at 8/7c. (Boss was a couple tenths below its Friday premiere last year., while the dramas were very close to even y2y.)
- Meanwhile, ABC's rough start to 2016 mostly continued into Friday. The one exception was Last Man Standing, still very reliable at 1.3. But Dr. Ken (1.1) continues to separate a bit from its Last Man lead-in, and Shark Tank (1.3) had its second very underwhelming result of the week in the return to its regular timeslot. This would've been a new season low for Tank if not for the Tuesday episode. 20/20 (0.9) was also on the low end at 10/9c.
- NBC's Undateable (0.8) and Dateline (1.1) were a touch above average, and an encore of Superstore (0.6) matched most recent Truth Be Told originals at 8:30.
- And the CW was finally back into the original game with the brief return of Reign (0.3). It will air just three Friday episodes before The Vampire Diaries and The Originals take over the night.
The Shannara Chronicles
Tuesdays, 10/9c, MTV
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Wednesdays, 10/9c, FXX
Man Seeking Woman
Wednesdays, 10:30/9:30c, FXX
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Life in Pieces (2.1) adjusted down.
- NBC continued its stout opening to 2016 with a nice sampling for the new Jennifer Lopez drama Shades of Blue (1.8), not far from where Heroes Reborn opened the fall (2.0) and growing from The Blacklist (1.6) lead-in on premiere night. Blacklist itself also did pretty well, upticking to its best rating since the season premiere. However, NBC had another low-end performance in the 8/7c hour as Heroes Reborn (1.0) did not return well.
- CBS also had a scripted series premiere in the Jane Lynch sitcom Angel from Hell (1.6), which dropped a bit from its Mom (1.8) lead-in on opening night and was close to the fall 2014 premiere of failed The McCarthys (1.7). It'd be a fine showing for Angel on a normal night, but for a series premiere it's pretty blah; it will not want to separate from Mom much more than this.
- Mom (1.8) and Life in Pieces (2.2) each tied their best Thursday performances of the season, while Elementary (1.2) hit a season high even as The Big Bang Theory (3.8) didn't get any real early January upswing.
- Fox's American Idol (2.7) delivered another strong two hours to round out its premiere week, though it was not quite as sensational as the Wednesday premiere. (This ep was down just a bit more than league average from last year's 3.1 Thursday opener.)
- And ABC began its tough road through the TGIT hiatus with a not-awful showing from Beyond the Tank (1.0) at 8/7c but very little interest in the newbie My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7).
- CW had still more repeats with The Vampire Diaries (0.2) and The Originals (0.2).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: American Idol officially made it back into the threes with a finals uptick, while Modern Family went up to 2.8. The Mysteries of Laura adjusted down to the low end of its fall numbers at 1.0, a disappointing result in a week with so many upswings.
- The former Death Star is back for one final ride, and it was a promising start for American Idol (2.9) as the show's two-hour premiere dominated primetime and took a less-than-average decline from last season's 3.2 opener.
- On ABC, the big story was the return of American Crime (1.2) at 10/9c. While this number was down 40% from last year's series premiere, it certainly could've been worse; it went above the entire second half of season one and also tied Nashville's premiere in the slot earlier this season.
- Crime got some nice help from Black-ish (2.1), which got the biggest early January boost out of the whole ABC comedy lineup with no more Empire competition for now. The rest of the gang (The Middle (2.1), The Goldbergs (2.1) and Modern Family (2.7)) saw only small upticks.
- CBS saw an OK return from 2 Broke Girls (1.7) and Mike and Molly (1.6) in the 8/7c hour, where they will fill the Survivor hiatus over the next six weeks. These shows don't seem as strong as they were a year ago, but should mark a nice improvement over what The Mentalist did with this timeslot in winter 2015. CBS also had the People's Choice Awards (1.3), which are crumbling at a rather alarming rate; this was the ceremony's second straight 25%+ year-to-year decline.
- NBC's The Mysteries of Laura (1.1) returned at its usual number at 8/7c, but Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.9) were much stronger than usual, benefiting from PD's end to the three-part Chicago crossover, plus a lot less drama competition on CBS/Fox. It was an outright season high for PD.
- CW had Arrow (0.3) and Supernatural (0.3) repeats.
Cooper Barrett's Guide
Sundays, 8:30/7:30c, Fox
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The NCIS twins adjusted up to 2.7/2.5, meaning New Orleans tied its raw series high.
- On a night of crime drama crossovers, CBS' NCIS (2.6) and NCIS: New Orleans (2.4) beat out NBC's Chicago Fire (1.8) and Chicago Med (1.9). For CBS, the mothership NCIS hit a new season high and was just barely below its 2.8 on this night last year. But it's always the second show that benefits even more; New Orleans easily crushed its previous season high 1.9 and actually came incredibly close to a series high (2.5 a couple times last year). However, this major boost was of very little help to Limitless (1.4) at 10/9c, even with Bradley Cooper returning.
- It's hard to complain much about Chicago Fire (1.8) and Chicago Med (1.9), as they ended up with fairly average numbers despite lacking their usual support from The Voice. Instead, their lead-in was the return of summer staple Hollywood Game Night (1.2), which did a fine job to go just a bit below its summer average after America's Got Talent.
- Fox began another tough trip down the two-hour Tuesday comedy road, but at least for tonight it wasn't too disastrous. New Girl (1.4) had a pretty good return at 8/7c, down three tenths from last year's September premiere but nearly matching what it did on this night last year (1.5). And Brooklyn Nine-Nine posted a 1.2 in its move back to Tuesday, about what it usually did on non-NFL Sundays.
- The newbies remain the bigger issues; Grandfathered (1.0) at 8:30 and The Grinder (0.8) at 9:30 each dropped four tenths from their respective veteran lead-ins and were just barely above their late fall deliveries in the 8:00 hour.
- If anybody really got lost in this shuffle, it was ABC, where a one-off original Shark Tank (1.2) went well below its usual Friday numbers leading out of another weak repeat of The Muppets (0.6). Beyond the Tank (1.1) had good retention at 10/9c, but a tough Thursday lead-off role awaits for that show. The CW stayed in repeat mode with The Flash (0.3) and iZombie (0.2).
The People's Choice Awards on CBS
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Adjusting up were Superstore (1.8, now tying the average for its full one-hour preview after The Voice), Supergirl (1.9, now its best rating since week two) and Scorpion (2.2, now tying the season premiere). Bachelor Live (1.0) went down a notch.
- Winter Mondays began much better for the broadcasters than winter Sundays. On NBC, that meant a rare glimmer of hope in the comedy department. Superstore opened its Monday 8/7c run with just over 6 million viewers and a very solid 1.7 demo rating. Lead-out Telenovela (1.3) dropped noticeably from there, but was not as far off the map as it looked like it could've been in its December preview.
- But NBC did have a fairly soft start out of The Biggest Loser (1.2), 25% below its last opener in September 2014. TBL may not drop as much post-premiere since it had pre-premiere competition when it opened fall 2014, but it seems clear there's been some damage to the franchise in the last couple years.
- On ABC, The Bachelor (2.2) kept chugging along with another strong premiere, matching last year's opener. After-show Bachelor Live (1.1) had pretty bad retention at 10/9c, even if it had about the same rating as a typical Castle episode these days.
- High viewing and no Monday Night Football added up to the usual January bounty on CBS, where Supergirl (1.8), Scorpion (2.1) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.6) all saw big surges. It was a new season high for LA, a best-since-premiere rating for Scorpion and a best-since-week-four rating for Supergirl.
- And Fox, which will mostly be punting on Mondays until The X-Files and Lucifer show up in three weeks, was still reasonable on this night with two-hour special Superhuman (1.2). The CW had another better-than-its-usual-lineup Monday with repeats of Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.5/0.4) and Penn and Teller: Fool Us (0.4).
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: CBS finals put 60 Minutes at 2.8, Undercover Boss at 1.6 (tying the season premiere) and the Limitless repeats at 0.8/0.6. The final 7.9 for Sunday Night Football was the franchise's best rating in over a month.
- Week 17 in the NFL always sees a late-afternoon national window for both CBS and Fox. This year, CBS was the big winner in that window with Peyton Manning's return in Denver (a prelim 5.4 average in the 7:00 hour), while Fox was the loser with blowouts in its relevant games (3.3 at 7:00 and 2.2 at 7:30). That was very inconvenient for Fox, since it was premiering two new comedies on the night. But even light of that, it was a very unpromising start for Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life (1.2) and Bordertown (1.1). Each show shed over a third of its respective lead-in (The Simpsons (2.0) and Family Guy (1.7)). These shows should get a bit more help with a playoff game lead-in next week, but beyond that it's gonna get even tougher.
- ABC also had a rough comedy premiere night as the return of sophomore Galavant (0.9) could only tie its low from last season (which was set against the AFC Championship Game). This night wasn't quite as ripe for sampling as last year's opening night, when Galavant scored a 2.0; on this night, Galvant still had to deal with primetime NFL. But it was still about as easy as it'll ever be, as the Golden Globes loom next week.
- ABC sandwiched Galavant with America's Funniest Home Videos (1.1) and the beginning of a repeat run for Quantico (0.4/0.4).
- The CBS prelims were 2.4 for 60 Minutes (8:00-9:00), 1.4 for Undercover Boss (9:00-10:00) and 0.7 for a repeat of Limitless (10:00-11:00). If anything, these shows should adjust up in finals since they all started about five minutes before the hour on the East Coast. More on that and NBC's solid-rated NFL game (7.2/7.1/6.9 prelims) after finals!
These numbers are current through Wednesday, December 30.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Though the broadcast networks almost completely shut down for business during the holiday weeks, cable had a surprising volume of scripted originals powering through. Many of those were on TNT, including the last episodes of cancelled Agent X (0.28/0.21) and Legends (0.15/0.09/0.10). The only real standout of the week was The Librarians (0.55); even with a nice finale spike, it was -42% in its sophomore season, but that still puts it a clear step ahead of most other TNT winter offerings.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV
seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
WHAT MATTERS:
- Even with big College Football Playoff games on ESPN, it was generally a good night for the New Year's Eve special programming on broadcast.
- ABC's Dick Clark's Primetime New Year's Rockin' Eve with Ryan Seacrest exactly matched last year's big ratings with a 2.3 in the 8:00-10:00 window and a 3.9 in the 10:00 hour.
- Year two for Fox's Pitbull's New Year's Revolution (0.8/0.9) actually picked up a little steam year-to-year, beating the 0.7 in primetime in 2014.
- The only real negative was NBC's New Year's Eve Game Night with Andy Cohen (1.0), which paled in comparison to recent primetime airings of New Year's Eve with Carson Daly (including a 1.5 last year). 8:00-10:00 special A Toast to 2015! (1.0) matched last year's special.
- As for those CFB Playoff games, the household overnights (9.7/9.9) were substantial yet down over a third year-to-year from the enormous New Year's Day overnights a year ago (15.5/15.3). The games were not particularly exciting, but this kind of slippage goes down as a pretty clear strike against airing the games on the much more crowded New Year's Eve, when work and parties are a much bigger factor. Still, it's unclear how much the NCAA can do about it, since this arrangement was largely about protecting the Rose Bowl's traditional New Year's Day window.
- CBS averaged 0.6 with repeats (led by 1.0 for The Big Bang Theory) and the CW had a 0.3 for a repeat iHeartRadio special.
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.
