First Two Weeks, Chicago Med

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.2
Lead-in: The Voice (2.6)
Competition: Agents of SHIELD (1.3), NCIS: New Orleans (1.7), Scream Queens (0.9), iZombie (0.5)

Spotted Ratings, Weekend Roundup 11/27-11/29/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: On Sunday, Madam Secretary (1.3) and 60 Minutes (2.6) both adjusted up. Sunday Night Football had an 8.5, up a whooping 2.2 points from last Sunday.

• ABC was back in the Sunday original series game with a very weak result for Once Upon a Time (1.3), a new season/series low by multiple tenths. It wasn't quite as abnormal later in the night as Blood and Oil (0.9) returned slightly up, but Quantico (1.2) inched down to tie its series low.

• CBS' lineup started just after the 8:00 hour (finally allowing for a CSI: Cyber pre-emption!). Considering the network had a national NFL overrun, it was a fairly soft night for 60 Minutes (2.5), Madam Secretary (1.2) and The Good Wife (0.9).

• With no sweeps and no national overrun, Fox offered up a repeat night, sprinkling in math and science awards show "Breakthrough Prize" (0.4) at 7:00 and holiday special Ice Age: A Mammoth Christmas (0.9) at 8:30.

• More on cable/football after finals, but part of the broadcasters' problems may have come from NBC doing even huger than usual as New England's undefeated season came to an end on Sunday Night Football. It looks like it could be up two full points or more from last week's low.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/26/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: TBBT (R) adjusted down to 3.2 and Life in Pieces to 2.1. Mom went up to 1.7. The NBC football game ended up with a massive 9.0 demo rating, which was 22% above Thanksgiving night last year.

• Thanksgiving Thursday was another particularly resounding lesson in "NFL lead-ins matter," as The Big Bang Theory (3.4) appears headed for one of the biggest repeat telecast ratings in recent memory leading out of CBS' late afternoon game. That helped to keep Life in Pieces (2.2), Mom (1.6), 2 Broke Girls (1.6) and Elementary (1.0) at pretty normal levels in spite of the depressed overall viewing. (All these shows started about two minutes later than usual, so there could be slight downward adjustments.)
• Ultimately, it seems like programming originals on Thanksgiving is pretty worthwhile if you have the late-afternoon game helping out. But another thing to keep in mind is that CBS may not have the same kind of scheduling crunch if they lose Thursday Night Football in future seasons. 

• On the other side of the coin, there was Fox, which got a 1.3 for a two-hour dog-themed special leading out of the late afternoon game last year. This year, lacking that lead-in, "FOX's All-Star Dog Rescue" could only muster up a third of that rating, averaging a 0.4 in both hours.

• NBC did huge business with the Thanksgiving primetime NFL game (more on how huge after finals), while ABC averaged a 0.5 for three hours of comedy repeats (led by 0.6 for The Muppets at 8/7c and The Middle at 9/8c).

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/25/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Empire (3.2) and The Goldbergs (1.3) adjusted up. Black-ish (1.0), Code Black (1.3) and the CW movie (0.4) all went down.

• Low-viewed Thanksgiving Eve is always very unkind to younger-skewing offerings, and Empire (3.1) was no exception, dropping 30% to a new series low by a wide margin. For the most part, series have been able to recover from these types of holiday airings, though it certainly adds a little more pressure on next week's Empire fall finale. Its lead-in Rosewood (1.2) also hit a new low, but it was not down quite as severely.

• CBS was also in the original game as two hours of Survivor (1.8) were down double digits, but they still supplied a better-than-usual lead-in for the surprisingly plucky Code Black (1.4), which was actually up to its best rating since the series premiere. CSI always seemed to overachieve in its Thanksgiving Eve 10/9c airings, holding its older audience while perhaps benefiting from less drama competition, and it looks like Code is continuing the tradition. 

• ABC did solid work with two hours of comedy repeats (1.3/1.2/1.2/1.1), joining a Jimmy Kimmel Live repeat (0.7) to hold off NBC for third place. NBC had two hours of Saturday Night Live (0.9/1.2) leading out of a "making of" special for The Wiz Live! (0.6). That special tied last year's similar special for Peter Pan Live! (Peter Pan itself went on to do a 2.4 the next week.)

• And the CW continued its recent Thanksgiving Eve tradition, the classic film Planes, Trains and Automobiles (0.5). It was down a tick from last year but matched the 2012 and 2013 ratings.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/24/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.2) went up, putting it ahead of The Voice (and tied with Charlie Brown) in the 8:00 hour.

• ABC took a rare turn atop the Tuesday standings with holiday special A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving (2.2) and the two-hour season finale of Dancing with the Stars (2.4). For the Peanuts special, this was even with last year's Thanksgiving Eve telecast, and it hasn't done a higher rating since 2008 (since most of its telecasts have come on lower-viewed Thanksgiving Eve and Thanksgiving Day). Again, DWTS clearly didn't get as red-hot as it did late last fall, going at least 20% behind last fall's huge 3.0 finale, but this was basically in line with more normal DWTS behavior (and very close to the 2.4 finale from two years ago).

• NBC had a significantly diminished The Voice (2.1), an 18% week two drop for Chicago Med (1.8) and a tiny drop from Chicago Fire (1.8). Given everything that was going against it, from a weakened lead-in to significantly increased ABC competition to the usual Thanksgiving week doldrums, it would be hard to ask for much more from Med. (And of course, it's a great result for Fire.)

• As for those Thanksgiving week doldrums, they definitely hit the other two networks; NCIS (2.1) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.6) were low-ish while Limitless (1.3) dropped to a new low for CBS. And it got even worse for Fox's struggling Tuesday as Grandfathered (0.9), The Grinder (0.7) and Scream Queens (0.8) all hit new lows. CW got decent mileage out of a holiday commercials special (0.4) and a repeat of The Flash (0.3).

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/23/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: After removing football pre-emptions on ABC, Castle was at its usual 1.1 while Dancing with the Stars had a 2.1. That tied a season high, but was still 16% behind last fall's performance finale as the show has not gotten quite as red-hot as it did at the end of fall 2014. Also, The Voice went up to 2.6 (matching the year-ago evening) while Minority Report somehow found yet another new low by going down to 0.5. (Worth noting this was a high-end night for Monday Night Football (5.12), which was up almost a full point from last week.)

• Thanksgiving week began in pretty rough fashion for broadcast TV, with Supergirl (1.5) crashing down to a new low (now basically on par with a typical episode of CW's The Flash) in week five. Its CBS companions Scorpion (1.7) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.2) were closer to even.

• Most notable elsewhere was the fall's final head-to-head clash between The Voice (2.4/2.7) and Dancing with the Stars (2.2/2.5). DWTS and lead-out Castle (1.5) will adjust down in finals due to Monday Night Football pre-emptions, but it seems that the beginning of DWTS finale week took a chunk out of The Voice. (It happened last year as well, so The Voice should be very close to even with the year-ago evening again.) On a lower Voice night, Blindspot (1.9) also took a hit, finally ending its long run above 2.0.

• Fox and CW also saw some minor declines with Gotham (1.4), Minority Report (0.6) and Jane the Virgin (0.4). 

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/22/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• A national NFL lead-in boosted Fox's Sunday comedy lineup, but the ratings were still rather underwhelming as The Simpsons (2.3), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.7), Family Guy (1.6) and The Last Man on Earth (1.3) all fell behind their previous post-NFL ratings this fall.

• ABC had an irregularly big Sunday with the American Music Awards (3.5), down a few tenths from last year's 3.8 but preliminarily avoiding a new low (as it hit a 3.4 in 2012).

• On CBS, Madam Secretary (1.1) and The Good Wife (0.9) tied their season lows in the prelims, but CSI: Cyber (0.9) had another decent hold at 10/9c.

• More on football/cable to come, but it looks like NBC had a weak (if still dominant) Sunday Night Football.

Cablemetrics: Into the Badlands, The Royals, The Bastard Executioner, Fargo

These numbers are current through Thursday, November 19.

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was a legitimately impressive start for new The Walking Dead lead-out Into the Badlands (3.15), retaining 48% of its lead-in from The Walking Dead (6.51). This was better retention than the Better Call Saul pilot had (3.43 with a 7.96 lead-in), and only a handful of Talking Dead episodes historically have done better.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/20/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: No adjustments!

• ABC built on its usual Friday dominance as Shark Tank (1.7) continued to see some late-fall redemption. It added another tenth this week, putting it three tenths ahead of its lows against the baseball playoffs. The comedy combo of Last Man Standing (1.2) and Dr. Ken (1.2) outright won at 8/7c, while 20/20 (1.4) had another good showing to take 10/9c.

• CBS was a bit softer than usual with The Amazing Race (1.0) and Blue Bloods (1.1), but Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) was normal in the middle.

• NBC's Undateable (0.8) was back to live originals this week, inching up from its recent level, but that was of no help to Truth Be Told (0.6) and Grimm (0.9). Dateline (1.2) had an uncommonly high rating at 10/9c which I'm sure someone will be able to explain.

• On Fox, MasterChef Junior (1.1) inched down for the second straight week (but still ahead of the entire Fox Tuesday/Thursday lineups), and World's Funniest stayed at 0.7.

• And CW's Reign (0.3) was back to normal after last week's high.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/19/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: CBS saw only small declines from the prelims; The Big Bang Theory was even and everything else dropped just a tenth or two. This left most of the lineup above last week, including season highs for Mom (1.7) and 2 Broke Girls (1.7).

• It was a big fall finale night for TGIT as Grey's Anatomy (2.5) surged to its best rating since the season premiere, Scandal (2.4) was up two tenths and How to Get Away with Murder (2.3) had the biggest growth of all, zooming by 0.4 as it resolved the cliffhanger it has hyped all fall. But as usual, Grey's was the runaway winner on a year-to-year basis, actually beating last year's 2.4 fall finale while the other two were down over 20%.

• NBC was pretty normal with Heroes Reborn (1.1), The Blacklist (1.5) and The Player (0.8). But TGIT's surge may have taken a chunk out of the more female-skewing drama lineups as Bones (1.0), Sleepy Hollow (0.8), The Vampire Diaries (0.5) and The Originals (0.4) all tied series lows.

• CBS' The Big Bang Theory (3.8), Life in Pieces (2.0), Mom (1.8), 2 Broke Girls (1.9) and Elementary (1.0) are pending Thursday Night Football preemptions, though in smaller markets than usual.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/18/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The Middle (2.1), Survivor (2.1), Rosewood (1.5) and Arrow (1.1) adjusted up. This put the entire ABC comedy lineup up a tenth from last week, while Arrow tied its season high with a The Flash crossover coming in two weeks.

• Fox's megahit Empire (4.4) was back on the upswing this Wednesday, recouping two tenths of last week's season low, while its lead-in Rosewood stayed at 1.4. It's good news for Empire, but it still looks like it'll be tough to avoid a series low (currently the series premiere's 3.8) when it airs on Thanksgiving Eve next Wednesday.

• ABC had a few upticks as well as The Goldbergs (2.2), Modern Family (2.8) and Black-ish (1.9) each packed on a tenth. Bookends The Middle (2.0) and Nashville (1.0) were even. 

• On CBS, Survivor (2.0) and Criminal Minds (1.5) gave back last week's upticks, while Code Black (1.2) looks for its sixth 1.2 rating in the last seven episodes. NBC was on the soft-ish end with The Mysteries of Laura (1.1), Law and Order: SVU (1.4) and Chicago PD (1.4).

• And Arrow (1.0) picked up a tick for the CW, while Supernatural stayed at 0.7.

SpotVault - Chicago Med (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings

SpotVault - 2 Broke Girls (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings

SpotVault - Into the Badlands (AMC) - 2015-16 Ratings

Into the Badlands

Sundays, 10/9c, AMC

SpotVault - The Royals (E!) - 2015-16 Ratings

The Royals

Sundays, 10/9c, E!

SpotVault - Donny! (USA) - 2015-16 Ratings

Donny!

Tuesdays, 10:30/9:30c, USA

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/17/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.2), NCIS: NO (1.7) and The Flash (1.4) adjusted up.

• NBC had a promising start to completion of the Chicago trilogy as Chicago Med opened with a good 2.2 rating, dominating the 9/8c hour and dropping just a tenth from 2.2 to 2.1 at the half. It led out of healthy The Voice (2.6) and into ever-impressive Chicago Fire (1.9). Of some note is that this is actually the biggest raw number for a Chicago launch to date, besting the Wednesday post-SVU premieres of Fire in 2012 (1.9) and PD in 2014 (2.0).

• CBS had a pretty off night against NBC's new lineup as NCIS (2.1), NCIS: New Orleans (1.6) and Limitless (1.4) were all on the low end. New Orleans was hoping to gain some momentum with The Voice out of the hour, but so far Med isn't looking much easier.

• ABC and Fox were pretty even as 8:30 sitcoms Fresh Off the Boat (1.4) and The Grinder (0.9) each ticked up while The Muppets (1.2), Agents of SHIELD (1.3), Grandfathered (1.0) and Scream Queens (0.9) couldn't rally from last week's lows. ABC improved at 10/9c as a repeat of Shark Tank (0.7) stepped in for cancelled Wicked City.

• The CW dipped into season low territory with The Flash (1.3) and iZombie (0.5).

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/16/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: After removing MNF preemptions, The Voice went down a tick to a 3.0, still a very healthy late-season number, while Blindspot went down two tenths to 2.1. The CW's shows each lost just a tenth, putting Jane the Virgin at a new season high 0.5. Scorpion (1.7) adjusted up to dodge a new low, while NCIS: Los Angeles was up to its fourth consecutive 1.3. Gotham went down to 1.5 on Fox.

• CBS' Supergirl (1.8) got some much-needed stabilization in week four, ticking up from last week. But much of that good news was offset by a series low night from Scorpion (1.6) at 9/8c, and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.2) was down a notch as well.

• On Fox, Gotham continued its very consistent fall by ticking back up to 1.6, while Minority Report (0.7) returned from a week off and inched up as it nears the end.

• ABC saw Castle (1.1) mercifully rebound by a tenth from last week's low, but Dancing with the Stars (1.8) swung down. 

• NBC (The Voice (3.1) and Blindspot (2.3)) and the CW (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.4) and Jane the Virgin (0.6)) are both pending Monday Night Football preemptions. 

Best Case/Worst Case: Chicago Med

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/15/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: 60 Minutes (3.6) and Madam Secretary (1.4) adjusted up, while CSI: Cyber (1.0) actually somehow tied its season high while airing at 10:57. Sunday Night Football (7.0) barely dodged a season low.

• CABLE: It was a legitimately impressive start for new The Walking Dead lead-out Into the Badlands (3.15), retaining 48% of its lead-in from The Walking Dead (6.50). This was better retention than the Better Call Saul pilot had (3.43 with a 7.96 lead-in), and only a handful of Talking Dead episodes historically have done better.

•  ABC had an above-average Sunday as it expanded Once Upon a Time (1.6) to a second hour, getting business pretty much as usual with a 1.6 rating in each hour. The half-hour breakdowns (1.7 -> 1.6 -> 1.5 -> 1.6) suggest the first hour was higher-rated than the second. But at 10/9c, Quantico (1.3) couldn't see any benefit from its best lead-in yet. It could be close to adjusting up with a 1.4 -> 1.3 breakdown, but it still seems kinda disappointing for ABC given how much stronger Once is compared with Blood and Oil.

•  Fox once again had the comedy lineup without a national NFL lead-in, but got a little relief even with a The Simpsons repeat (1.2) at 8/7c as Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.3), Family Guy (1.4) and The Last Man on Earth (1.2) were all on the upswing vs. last week's lows.

• CBS had the national overrun and got massive numbers out of Giants/Patriots in the late afternoon. The network then averaged a prelim 3.2 at 8/7c (mostly 60 Minutes) but was down to 1.3 at 9/8c (mostly Madam Secretary) and 1.1 at 10/9c (mostly The Good Wife). All these shows started a few minutes before the hour, so there may be some adjustments. (And CSI: Cyber got another bad break overrun-wise, as it once again had to air right at the end of the possible window with a 10:57 start time...)

• NBC had one of its weaker Sunday Night Football efforts, and of interest on cable will be AMC's launch of Into the Badlands after The Walking Dead. More after finals!

Cablemetrics: Agent X, The Librarians, Donny!, The Affair

These numbers are current through Thursday, November 12.

WHAT MATTERS:

• TNT finished out its original Sunday lineup with the two-hour premiere of drama Agent X, with a 0.27 in the 9:00 hour and a 0.20 at 10:00. It's at least ahead of the tanking sophomore Legends early on, but it's certainly not a promising start; it's only about equivalent to the premiere of late summer's Public Morals, which went on to become a huge bomb. Its lead-in was week two of The Librarians (0.53), which held up OK (a tenth below its 8:00 premiere but a tenth above its weak point in the 9:00 hour last week).

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/13/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: World's Funniest (0.7) adjusted down. 20/20 was not counted in finals because it didn't air any commercials.

• NBC had the unluckiest Friday the 13th as it preempted another live edition of Undateable due to the events in Paris, getting a 0.6 for its repeat and for an original Truth Be Told. After narrowly avoiding fractional territory last week, Grimm (0.9) got there this time, and Dateline (0.8) also slumped.

• There were no surprises with the usual Friday leaders as ABC's Last Man Standing (1.3) continued to oscillate between 1.2 and 1.3 while Dr. Ken (1.2) and Shark Tank (1.6) matched last week and 20/20 (1.2) was down a notch.

• On CBS, Blue Bloods (1.2) was down a tenth as The Amazing Race and Hawaii Five-0 held at 1.1.

• Fox's MasterChef Junior (1.2) was down a tenth in its second week back on Friday, still close to the lead at 8/7c, and World's Funniest put up another 0.8.

• I always exercise skepticism when a CW number looks high since it often gets sports preemptions, but at least in the prelims there was a new season high 0.4 for Reign. If it holds, it might be time to lump it in with the other CW dramas that have overachieved in a Friday move (most notably Hart of Dixie last year).

 Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/12/15

 WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: CBS' finals carnage was similar to last week, with The Big Bang Theory (3.7) barely ticking down but Life in Pieces (1.8), Mom (1.5), 2 Broke Girls (1.6) and Elementary (0.8) all getting slammed by four or five tenths after adjustments. This put TBBT even with last week, LiP a tenth below last week, Mom steady but still soft, 2 Broke Girls actually ahead of its Mom lead-in, and Elementary down an ugly three tenths to a new series low. The only adjustment on the other networks was a 0.1 gain for The Blacklist.

• Once again, CBS has to wait for finals due to a double-dose of Thursday Night Football preemptions. It doesn't mean much of anything, but The Big Bang Theory (3.8), Life in Pieces (2.3) and Mom (2.0) were all very close to last week's often heavily inflated prelims, while the return of 2 Broke Girls (2.0) at 9:30 preliminarily matched its Mom lead-in. Elementary (1.3) was down from last week's 1.5 prelim but above the 1.1 final.

• On a steady night for TGIT, Scandal (2.2) pulled back into a tie with Grey's Anatomy (2.2) thanks to Grey's inching down from last week. How to Get Away with Murder (1.9) was even.

• The other three networks were all eerily steady, with the only notable being Heroes Reborn (1.1) giving back a chunk (though not all) of last week's huge surge. The Blacklist (1.4), The Player (0.7), Bones (1.1), Sleepy Hollow (0.9), The Vampire Diaries (0.6) and The Originals (0.4) all matched last week.

The SpotVault's Timeslot Stats/Projections Table

Here is what's in the SpotVault's newly overhauled Timeslot Stats table, now also including projections of future averages:

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/11/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Black-ish (1.8) and Code Black (1.2) adjusted down.

• NBC finished out its annual five-hours-of-The Voice week with a one-hour Wednesday 8/7c results show (2.4), which was impressively close to the 2.5 edition on the same night last year. This helped boost Law and Order: SVU (2.0) to a season high and Chicago PD (1.6) to an above-average result as well. (These numbers were well behind last year's SVU and PD on the same night (2.4/2.2), though there was also a crossover situation in that case.)

• Against some added NBC competition, only Fox's Empire (4.2) had a somewhat significant drop. Its lead-in Rosewood (1.4) also ticked down, returning to a tie with its October 14 low. 

• CBS was up a tenth across the board as Survivor (2.1) and Criminal Minds (1.6) inched off of last week's lows, and Code Black (1.3) actually had its best rating since the series premiere.

• ABC was mostly steady with The Middle (2.0), The Goldbergs (2.1), Modern Family (2.7), Black-ish (1.9) and Nashville (1.0), as Goldbergs and Nashville each inched down.

• CW's Arrow (0.9) gave back last week's surge, and Supernatural finally hit a 0.7 after a month fluctuating between 0.8 and 0.6.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/10/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.3) went up and Chicago Fire (2.0) went down.

• Tuesday brought an added double-whammy of competition as The Voice (2.6/2.9) temporarily expanded back to two hours and another Republican Presidential debate aired on Fox Business Channel. (The preliminary household numbers suggest it was just a bit below the CNBC debate from a couple weeks ago, which went on to average a 2.6 A18-49.)

• The network that really got slammed was ABC, as The Muppets (1.2), Fresh Off the Boat (1.3) and Agents of SHIELD (1.3) all dropped to new season lows. It's a particularly tough pill for the comedies to swallow since the debate didn't even start till 9:00 Eastern, but they also hadn't faced The Voice in quite awhile.
• And newbie Wicked City (0.4) absolutely cratered at 10/9c, which is really going to put this nothing-has-been-pulled narrative to the test. It's tough these days to fall to repeat-of-anything levels, but Wicked City has pulled it off.

• NBC's The Voice (2.6/2.9) may end up with a better rating than it got in any of its one-hour 9/8c editions, while Chicago Fire (2.1) continued its major ascension after a slow start to the season. This is certainly welcome news for the network in the week before the Chicago Med premiere.

• CBS held up all right as NCIS (2.2) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.7) were only down a bit and Limitless (1.5) was flat. Fox's only drop came with Scream Queens (0.9), preliminarily eyeing its first journey into the zeroes, while Grandfathered (1.0) and The Grinder (0.8) stayed low. And the CW was flat with The Flash (1.5) and iZombie (0.6).

SpotVault - Mom (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings

SpotVault - Elementary (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings

SpotVault - MasterChef Junior (Fox) - Fall 2015 Ratings

MasterChef Junior

Fridays, 8/7c, Fox

SpotVault - World's Funniest (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings

World's Funniest

Fridays, 9/8c, Fox

SpotVault - Agent X (TNT) - 2015-16 Ratings

Agent X

Sundays, 9/8c, TNT

SpotVault - The Librarians (TNT) - 2015-16 Ratings

The Librarians

Sundays, 8/7c, TNT

SpotVault - Legends (TNT) - 2015-16 Ratings

Legends

Mondays, 10/9c, TNT

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/9/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: NCIS: Los Angeles (1.3) adjusted up.

• Week three of Supergirl (1.7) was down another half point for CBS. This is a considerably more disappointing result than the week two drop, since week two came with a lot of timeslot-related disadvantages, and it's now looking pretty unlikely that this will be a hit. If there's a silver lining, it's that these big drops are making a relatively steady Scorpion (1.8) look better; this was the first time all season Scorpion has built on its lead-in. NCIS: Los Angeles (1.2) inched down at 10/9c.

• NBC dominated broadcast primetime with another round of The Voice (3.2) and Blindspot (2.2). Though it looks like nothing special for The Voice on a week-to-week basis, it's worth noting that this is a time of year when the show is usually fading. It's holding up a good bit better than usual as the calendar moves into November, kind of reminiscent of what America's Got Talent did in the second half of the summer.

• ABC's Dancing with the Stars (2.0) was back into the twos for the first time since the season premiere, beginning to pick up a little of its usual late-season steam, but absolutely none of it translated to 10/9c where Castle (1.0) bombed out with another new series low.

• And Fox had Gotham (1.5), then a repeat of Bones (0.5) stepped in for Minority Report. There has been a ton of ink spilled about how nothing has gotten pulled this fall, but "lack of repeat replacements" usually doesn't get enough credit in the reasoning. This was a textbook example, as a drama repeat couldn't even match what is likely the biggest megabomb of the fall.

• CW was as usual with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) and Jane the Virgin (0.4).

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/8/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Once Upon a Time (1.6) and Family Guy (1.2) adjusted up, while 60 Minutes (2.7) and Madam Secretary (1.3) went down. Bob's Burgers actually held its preliminary 1.4 in finals. Though it surely had football help, it was still a season high on a low-end night for the rest of the lineup. Sunday Night Football (8.4) had its best result in a month.

• ABC's Quantico (1.3) was on the rebound from last week's result against the World Series, but only by a tenth, keeping it well behind its performance in the first month. We'll see if any of the lineup gets finals help (some appear close to adjusting up), but for now Once Upon a Time (1.5), Blood and Oil (0.8) and America's Funniest Home Videos (1.0) were flat.

• Fox had only a few regional NFL overruns (messing up its results in the 7:00 hour), leading to another rough night. The truly alarming result came from Family Guy (1.1), which went massively behind any result from this season and even below its miserable 1.2 against SNL40 last winter. The Simpsons (1.5), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.2) and The Last Man on Earth (1.0) all tied their season lows.

• CBS had what looks like a pretty normal overrun night with a heavily inflated 60 Minutes (3.8/2.3) followed by Madam Secretary (1.5/1.2), The Good Wife (1.1/1.0) and CSI: Cyber (0.8 in the 10:30 half-hour). All these shows started about five minutes after the bottom of the hours, so they could adjust a bit.

• NBC had the always desirable Dallas Cowboys in primetime and looks to have put up an above-average Sunday Night Football. More after finals.

First Two Weeks, Wicked City

Reminder: the game for Supergirl is still open till 6:00 am ET on Tuesday!

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 0.9
Lead-in: Agents of SHIELD (1.4)
Competition: Limitless (1.4), Chicago Fire (1.9)

Cablemetrics: The Librarians, Major Crimes, Legends, The Affair

These numbers are current through Thursday, November 5.

WHAT MATTERS:

• Most notable this week was TNT entering the scripted original game after sitting out the first couple months of the fall. Results were decidedly mixed:
• Sophomore drama The Librarians was the top TNT 18-49 draw out of the gate, despite what may have been a tough scheduling break; it premiered with a 0.63 at 8/7c and dropped to 0.44 when facing The Walking Dead in its second hour. It'd be pretty solid if it can stay closer to the 0.63 half as it stays at 8/7c moving forward, though the year-to-year trend looks awful right now since it went up against the big 1.27 pilot a year ago.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/6/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Though many shows were close in the prelims, only one finals adjustment came to pass: Blue Bloods was up to a season high-tying 1.3.

• There's a lot of family-themed programming clashing in the 8/7c hour on Fridays. But at least for now, perhaps with the help of some extra post-DST viewership, there seems to be room for all of it. MasterChef Junior (1.3) made a very solid return to Friday, winning the 8/7c hour and opening with a raw number that it hit several times when it was last on the night two years ago. And it was down just 19% from the Friday series premiere two years ago. It's very much worth noting that this rating beat all but three of Fox's eight hours this week to date...
• But it didn't particularly help the return of World's Funniest (0.8), which only matched the last six weeks of its initial Friday 8/7c run last winter.

• On ABC, Last Man Standing (1.2) and Dr. Ken (1.2) were fairly normal again, and Shark Tank (1.6) finally showed at least a little life at 9/8c as it hung its best rating since week two. 20/20 (1.3) was down from last week's Leah Remini interview but still above average.

• NBC's Grimm (1.0) had one of its better week two holds, shedding just one tenth from the premiere, while Dateline (1.0) got a little stronger at 10/9c against a lower 20/20. But comedies Undateable (0.7) and Truth Be Told (0.6) stayed very low, unable to continue NBC's week-long 8/7c upswing.

• And CBS was pretty normal again as The Amazing Race (1.1) inched down, Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) was even and Blue Bloods (1.2) inched up.

• The CW was slightly up week-to-week with the return of Reign (0.3), while America's Next Top Model (0.3) was up from last week's low.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/5/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Yeesh. The Big Bang Theory went down just a tenth to 3.7, actually putting it within league average of the 4.1 Thursday opener last year. Everything beyond that got adjusted down at least four tenths:
• Life in Pieces (1.9) found itself about on par with its normal Monday level;
• Mom (1.5) had a stunningly weak opener, starting at a new series low (even behind Thanksgiving last year!) and basically a half point behind its usual spring ratings;
• The Big Bang Theory (R) went down to 1.3, while Elementary went down to 1.1. Elementary was just a tenth behind last year's premiere, but that doesn't necessarily mean a steady season is ahead since the fall was so much weaker than the rest of the season.
• Even on the other networks, the only adjustments were down: Bones to a 1.1 and Scandal to a 2.2 (behind its 2.3 Grey's lead-in and marking a sixth straight decline since the premiere).

• Any definitive declarations about the new CBS Thursday lineup will have to wait for finals due to Thursday Night Football preemptions in both teams' markets. In particular, the 10/9c premiere of Elementary (1.5) looks like something that could be pretty inflated. The network also had The Big Bang Theory (3.8), Life in Pieces (2.3), Mom (2.0) and a repeat of Big Bang (1.7). My only real preliminary observation is that Mom could look somewhat disappointing if it gets whacked by the finals, since 2.0 is already toward the low end of what it was doing last spring.

• On ABC, Grey's Anatomy (2.3) was back at 8/7c, but it was of no real help to Scandal (2.3) (unable to build from Grey's for the first time this season) and a barely-rebounding How to Get Away with Murder (1.9).

• All week, we've seen NBC's marginal 8/7c occupants throw their hats into the ring with major surges in the first week after DST, and this night was no exception as Heroes Reborn (1.3) zoomed to its best rating since week two. But The Blacklist (1.4) and The Player (0.7) couldn't join in on the fun in the last two hours.

• Fox's Bones (1.2) and Sleepy Hollow (0.9) were both down from last week's crossover, but it seems like a fine result for Bones considering how heavily it was hurt against Big Bang's arrival last year. The CW had another 0.6/0.4 night with The Vampire Diaries and The Originals.

First Two Weeks, Supergirl

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 3.1
Lead-in: The Big Bang Theory (4.4)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (1.8), The Voice (3.1), Gotham / Minority Report (1.5 / 0.6), Crazy Ex-Girlfriend / Jane the Virgin (0.3 / 0.4)

Best Case/Worst Case: MasterChef Junior, World's Funniest

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/4/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Criminal Minds (1.5) mercifully adjusted up to draw even with SVU at 9/8c. So did Arrow (1.1), which tied its season high and also matched the year-ago evening.

• Fox had a healthy return for Rosewood (1.5) and megahit Empire (4.6), both just barely down from their last episodes two weeks ago before the World Series. Given the added music-themed competition on ABC, Fox will happily take it, as Empire actually won head-to-head against the CMA Awards' strongest hour (4.1)

• The CBS audience probably has some overlap with the CMAs, but it's still pretty striking just how bad the Criminal Minds crisis is getting. It was down two more tenths to a 1.4, which will be a new low even if it adjusts up, and that meant it actually lost head-to-head with NBC's Law and Order: SVU (1.5). And it's not like the surrounding CBS programming (Survivor (2.0) and Code Black (1.2)) were particularly out of the ordinary.

• As for the awards show itself, the CMA Awards averaged a preliminary 3.8 from 8:00 to 11:00, which is likely to be down double digits from last year's 4.5. We'll see after finals if it can hold off the record low, 3.8 on a Thursday in 2012.

• NBC had another fine night as The Mysteries of Laura (1.2) made an even stronger case with a nice post-DST upswing, while Law and Order: SVU (1.5) and Chicago PD (1.4) were pretty normal.

• And the CW had an Arrow (1.0) uptick, but the swingy Supernatural (0.6) was back down to the low end.

Best Case/Worst Case: Mom, 2 Broke Girls, Elementary

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/3/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Fresh Off the Boat (1.6) adjusted up to mark its second straight increase, as did Best Time Ever (1.4). The Flash held onto its new season high 1.5.

• The end of DST and an early end to the World Series set up pretty favorable Tuesday conditions, and the networks mostly took advantage. CBS was on a particularly notable upswing, with NCIS (2.3) at its best rating since the premiere and NCIS: New Orleans (1.9) experiencing a huge spike as competing The Voice (2.0) aired a clip show. This pair will be an interesting dynamic to watch in the coming weeks as The Voice finally returns to the 8:00 hour. Limitless (1.5) was also able to get a small uptick at 10/9c.

• NBC also had a solid night despite the aforementioned clip show (2.0) as Best Time Ever (1.3) went out on a pretty decent note (its highest rating since the move to 8/7c) and Chicago Fire (1.8) held very close to last week's excellent rating. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Best Time Ever return at this point, though likely without the same high-priority treatment it got this year.

• ABC was even across the first two hours with The Muppets (1.4), Fresh Off the Boat (1.5) and Agents of SHIELD (1.4), but Wicked City (0.7) dipped into even uglier territory in week two.

• Fox began a two-day effort airing original episodes on dates originally designated for the World Series, steady with Grandfathered (1.0) and Scream Queens (1.0) but seeing The Grinder (0.8) take a disheartening dip to a new low. Overall, the network would be pretty happy if the Wednesday lineup can hold up this well tonight.

• And The Flash preliminarily inched up to what would be a new season high 1.5, while iZombie (0.6) was even.

2015 Changes to True Formula and Projected Averages

The plan initially was to let you know what has changed with True and the Plus Power Rankings projected averages at the same time I introduced the new Timeslot Stats table for the Vault, which has more advanced details on these things. But it's become clear that just the "what has changed" portion of that undertaking makes for a really long post in its own right. So here are some of the gory details about the actual metric changes. The intro to the Timeslot Stats overhaul will come when that is ready, which I hope will be pretty soon!

SpotVault - Grimm (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings

SpotVault - The World Series (Fox) - 2015 Ratings

The World Series on Fox

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/2/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: NCIS: Los Angeles (1.3) adjusted up to tie its season high, as did The Voice (3.3) to improve even more on its best y2y of the season. Dancing with the Stars (1.9) and especially Countdown to the CMA Awards (0.8) went down, making for a pretty poor showing out of the CMA special (which had a 1.2 in this slot last season).

• CBS' Supergirl (2.2) took a big dip in week two, dropping nearly 30% from last week's post-The Big Bang Theory premiere. It's a sizable drop, but not catastrophic considering the switch from TBBT to local programming as a lead-in. It's still got "most successful newbie of the season" potential if it can stay close to this.
• CBS had positive news at 9/8c as Scorpion (1.9) was able to hold onto last week's growth even out of a lower lead-in, while NCIS: Los Angeles (1.2) inched back down to normal after its season high two weeks ago.

• Almost everyone else had some kind of good news on the evening:
• NBC had a good night with The Voice (3.2) and Blindspot (2.2) both on the upswing, and this should represent Voice's smallest year-to-year decline of the season.
• Fox's Gotham (1.6) remained unfazed by Supergirl at 8/7c; in fact, it's actually seemed like a positive, as the show has now picked up three tenths back to the premiere rating in the two weeks since Supergirl came on the scene.
• And even the CW saw low-rated Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) and Jane the Virgin (0.4) inch back up.

• ABC's Dancing with the Stars (2.0) and CMA preview special (1.0) are pending Monday Night Football preemptions.

2015-16 Best Case/Worst Case Show Index

Best Case/Worst Case is this site's critically-acclaimed season preview. Here's an occasionally-updated list of every single show previewed over the course of the 2015-16 season.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/1/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: CSI: Cyber (0.7) adjusted down. Sunday Night Football had a stout 8.2, up 15% from last week even with World Series competition. As for the Series, it ended on a series high 5.1, naturally not as good as last year's decisive Game 7 (6.6) but well above the last decisive fifth game in a World Series (4.2 in 2010).

• Fox bid adieu to the World Series with Game 5 on Sunday night. Though they'll be a bit disappointed to get a relatively short five-game series, missing out on more big ratings for Tuesday and Wednesday, they at least got another way-past-primetime multiple-extra-inning epic to close it out. The prelims suggest this game went noticeably above the rest of the series. And even going against the World Series, the early Sunday Night Football prelims suggest that football was even or better with last week.

• On a huge sports night with tons of extra competition in the 10:00 hour, ABC's Quantico (1.2) took an alarming week six plunge. ABC will certainly hope this is just a blip on an irregular night, but it's worth wondering if the size of this decline could be enough to spring the network into some kind of action with the flailing 9/8c hour (where Blood and Oil (0.8) preliminarily ticked down to a new low). Once Upon a Time (1.5) was also down a touch to a new low for ABC.

• CBS didn't fare any better against the big sports night as Madam Secretary (1.1) and The Good Wife (0.9) each appear headed for new season lows.

Cablemetrics: The Walking Dead, Homeland, Fargo, Satisfaction

These numbers are current through Thursday, October 29.

WHAT MATTERS:

• Some of last week's brutal drops had some nice redemption this week. Start at the top with The Walking Dead (6.69), recouping a half-point to go just three tenths below the year-ago evening. Homeland bounced all the way back to tie the season premiere and was actually up vs. week four last year, while its sophomore lead-out The Affair (0.23) tied a series high (and remains the only currently airing show in the table below with a green year-to-year trend!). FX's Fargo (0.42) also reclaimed the vast majority of last week's enormous post-premiere drop.

SpotVault - Supergirl (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings

SpotVault - Wicked City (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings

SpotVault - Truth Be Told (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings

Truth Be Told

Fridays, 8:30/7:30c, NBC

SpotVault - Being Mary Jane (BET) - 2015-16 Ratings

Being Mary Jane

Tuesdays, 10/9c, BET

SpotVault - Satisfaction (USA) - 2015-16 Ratings

Satisfaction

Fridays, 10/9c, USA