The Question, Thursday 3/5/15: Will American Crime Arrest the TGIT Audience?

Thanks to a short first season for Thursday home run How to Get Away with Murder, the post-Scandal timeslot has come open over two months before the end of the season. Tonight, ABC will use that opportunity on the new drama American Crime. The marketing campaign wants you to believe the show is Very Important, and the critical reviews have mostly lived up to that billing. But it's still unknown whether the extremely grim tone will connect with an audience that is accustomed to much soapier ABC Thursday dramas. Will American Crime arrest the TGIT audience? That's The Question for Thursday, March 5, 2015.

Previous ABC Thursday 10/9c Launches

2.0 (Scandal, 4/5/12, 2.8 Grey's Anatomy lead-in) 1.5 (Black Box, 4/24/14, 2.4 Grey's) 3.8 (How to Get Away with Murder, 9/25/14, 3.8 Scandal) 2.96 (How to Get Away with Murder average in 2014-15)

It is some pretty hard-hitting #analysis to say that this premiere will probably fall somewhere between the 1.5 of summer filler Black Box and the 3.8 of absolutely perfect fit How to Get Away with Murder. The best comparison may actually be the launch of a relatively unheralded Scandal in 2012. Like Scandal back then, this show has some similarity with its lead-in, but not necessarily enough to make it a resounding win out of the gate. I could see missing big on this one in either direction, but since this is another premiere with very light competition, I'll say it barely outdoes Scandal's low-70s retention in 2012.

Over/Under: 2.45.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. All results based on final ratings rounded to the nearest tenth.