New for this round, a "momentum" metric called Heat. Check out this explanation.
These rankings include results through Sunday, February 8.
More February True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
| Fox Comedies | True | Heat | A18-49 | y2y | Skew | %Male | Counted Eps | |
| The Animated Anchors | ||||||||
| 1 | The Simpsons | 1.87 | -14% | 2.44 | +5% | 57% | 60% | 5 |
| 2 | Family Guy | 1.83 | -4% | 1.95 | -1% | 71% | 59% | 4 |
It's a bit surprising that The Simpsons has a better year-to-year trend than Family Guy considering the absurd amount of inflation caused by the double-Family Guy premiere. But it remains very clear that both of these y2y trends remain highly unrepresentative of where the shows are now, as the January/February results have gotten pretty ugly. The formula has never been a perfect fix when it comes to The Simpsons' NFL lead-ins, but at least some of that negative Heat seems legit.
| Fox Comedies | True | Heat | A18-49 | y2y | Skew | %Male | Counted Eps | |
| The Other Contenders | ||||||||
| 3 | Brooklyn Nine-Nine | 1.55 | -9% | 1.68 | +17% | 61% | 56% | 5 |
| 4 | New Girl | 1.54 | +5% | 1.44 | -26% | 62% | 40% | 5 |
| 5 | Bob's Burgers | 1.34 | +2% | 1.45 | -30% | 63% | 52% | 4 |
| 6 | The Mindy Project | 1.08 | -7% | 1.06 | -21% | 58% | 35% | 5 |
The year-to-year trends still don't look good for New Girl and The Mindy Project, but they have improved since MasterChef Junior showed up in November. The skews say that these shows shouldn't really share any audience, but even a good/incompatible lead-in has got to be better than Utopia. Will be interesting to see if the improvements can continue when Hell's Kitchen takes over in March.
Meanwhile, Bob's Burgers is kind of the Elementary of Fox; it had a couple results early in the fall (the 0.9 and 1.0 in late November) that were very painfully low, and those will help its Heat look more reasonable than the other Sunday shows.
| Fox Comedies | True | Heat | A18-49 | y2y | Skew | %Male | Counted Eps | |
| The Dunzo | ||||||||
| 7 | Mulaney | 0.81 | -12% | 0.65 | 53% | 56% | 4 | |
| Fox Dramas | True | Heat | A18-49 | y2y | Skew | %Male | Counted Eps | |
| The Renewed | ||||||||
| 1 | Empire | 4.11 | +4% | 4.45 | 49% | 37% | 2 | |
| 2 | Gotham | 2.16 | -11% | 2.20 | 46% | 56% | 5 | |
These are a few shows for which it'd be nice if Heat were a little more immediate. For example, Empire had a big spike in True last week when all the original competition came back; but since it's bundled with episode four, whose True score was a bit deflated due to light competition, the Heat doesn't grade as strongly as it seems like it should. (Also, Empire is that very rare show that actually gets significantly hurt because the formula throws out the premiere!) Expect some orange there next week.
On the other side of the coin, Gotham feels like one of the coldest shows on broadcast right now, but it didn't even get into the dark blue category until last week's 1.9 was added. But rest assured, Gotham will likely continue cooling at its current rate; after all, the rolling average still includes one of the show's better points, the 2.5 winter premiere that feels like an eternity ago now.
| Fox Dramas | True | Heat | A18-49 | y2y | Skew | %Male | Counted Eps | |
| The Cooling Contenders | ||||||||
| 3 | Bones | 1.48 | -10% | 1.33 | -26% | 31% | 37% | 4 |
| 4 | Sleepy Hollow | 1.34 | -11% | 1.46 | -39% | 43% | 49% | 5 |
Empire may be the story of the season/decade, but Fox still has a depth crisis. As "second tiers" go, this is about as bad as it gets: shows that are soft, as well as down a ton year-to-year, as well as down a lot since the start of this season. However, Fox doesn't really have much worth building around in the fall: pretty much just Empire, Gotham (I think?) and MasterChef Junior. So these shows could/should still survive out of need to put something on Thursday and Friday.
| Fox Dramas | True | Heat | A18-49 | y2y | Skew | %Male | Counted Eps | |
| The Dunzo | ||||||||
| 5 | Backstrom | 1.00 | -26% | 1.00 | 32% | 46% | 1 | |
| 6 | Red Band Society | 0.98 | -16% | 0.62 | 39% | 36% | 5 | |
| 7 | Gracepoint | 0.98 | -1% | 0.83 | 29% | 40% | 4 | |
| 8 | Glee | 0.90 | -14% | 0.60 | -62% | 44% | 38% | 2 |
And then there's this bunch. Using the last third of results, these are the four Truly weakest dramas on the big four networks, even behind the recent results from shows like Resurrection and State of Affairs.
| Fox Unscripted | True | Heat | A18-49 | y2y | Skew | %Male | Counted Eps | |
| 1 | American Idol Wed | 2.94 | -5% | 3.00 | -21% | 35% | 38% | 2 |
| 2 | American Idol Thu | 2.48 | -8% | 2.30 | -21% | 33% | 37% | 2 |
| 3 | MasterChef Junior Spring | 1.68 | -5% | 1.65 | 42% | n/a | 2 | |
| 4 | MasterChef Junior | 1.65 | -2% | 1.60 | +19% | 45% | 41% | 2 |
| 5 | Hell's Kitchen | 1.37 | -8% | 1.23 | -21% | 45% | 46% | 6 |
| 6 | World's Funniest Fails | 1.21 | +4% | 0.95 | 41% | 47% | 2 | |
| 7 | Utopia Tue | 1.03 | -4% | 0.80 | 59% | n/a | 2 | |
| 8 | Utopia Fri | 1.00 | +1% | 0.63 | 45% | 42% | 3 | |
It seems like a pretty safe bet that the pairing with Empire is helping the Wednesday editions of American Idol to do so much better than the Thursday ones; however, the average year-to-year numbers are almost identical due to the extra two-hour Thursday episodes early in the season. Perhaps due to the Empire effect, Idol has been rather inconsistent, shooting up and down more than usual, but it seems plausible that these y2y trends could continue to get better since the Olympics took a huge chunk out of the show last season. One wonders if the show will take an Olympics-esque hit after Empire leaves the air in late March, though.
After three weeks of low-1 ratings on Friday, World's Funniest Fails was getting into "definite keeper" territory. Then it shed three tenths in week four, which leaves it less certain at the time of this posting. I think there's a decent chance it bounces back a bit, especially with Undercover Boss leaving the slot soon. Unless it keeps bleeding, it's probably still got a good shot.
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