The Question, Wednesday 1/7/15: Will Fox Begin Rebuilding its Empire?

American Idol premiere night was once the beginning of a four-month run of overwhelming ratings domination for the Fox network. Now, the network just crosses its fingers for slowed year-to-year bleeding and an Idol big enough to keep it somewhat competitive. But there's added pressure on the former Death Star's premiere this year because it will lead into a new drama, the hip hop musical Empire. Musical dramas have run the gamut from huge (Glee) to consistently modest (Nashville) to megabomb (Viva Laughlin), and Fox could really use something toward the positive end of that spectrum. Will Fox begin rebuilding its Empire? That's The Question for Wednesday, January 7, 2015.

American Idol Last Season

4.7 (premiere, 1/15/14, -22% year-to-year) 2.67 (Wednesday/performance average, -32% year-to-year) 2.6 (finale, 5/21/14, -28% year-to-year)

Unlike the last couple shows we've done for The Question, Empire will have an actual sizable lead-in. But as always with Idol premieres these days, just how sizable is a mystery. Empire may need 75%+ retention to get over this line, or it may only need in the 50s. One problem for the show is that CBS offers a real alternative for much of the Idol crowd at 9/8c in the People's Choice Awards. But with a couple fairly big-name leads and a unique concept, Empire could attract at least a bit of its own audience.

Empire Over/Under: 2.15.

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