| TGIT This Season |
| 3.1/2.53/2.4 (Grey's Anatomy premiere/avg/fall finale) 3.8/3.14/3.1 (Scandal premiere/avg/fall finale) 3.8/3.04/3.1 (HTGAWM premiere/avg/fall finale) |
This three-hour block thoroughly dominated the Thursday entertainment landscape in the fall, but it will find a tougher slate of competitors for its return. Even if Backstrom tanks in week two, an American Idol-led Fox will be far stronger than it ever was in the fall. NBC figures to have one of its best Thursdays of the season with a two-hour The Biggest Loser finale and the Parenthood series finale. And The Big Bang Theory is back in original business. These shows aren't so overwhelming that TGIT can't increase from the fall finales, as Grey's and Scandal did last year. But I don't see them making serious runs at the fall premiere numbers.
Grey's Anatomy PLUS Scandal PLUS How to Get Away with Murder Over/Under: 9.35.
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43 comments:
Under
Under
Over.
The hype for the return of TGIT is crazy high.
Under. I think they'll all be close to the finale numbers, but even if they're up a bit, it won't be enough to go over, especially for the 8pm hour.
Over. Murder had a stunning cliffhanger and actually spiked for the finale. Apparantly, Olivia Pope is kidnapped, so it'll probably boost with that good cliffhanger.
Under. The competition is just too strong in my eyes.
Grey's: 2.4
Scandal: 3.3
Murder: 3.2
Interesting. Mmm...Under. Why not?
All shows had very good fall finales and the hype for its return is crazy. On Scandal particularly, Olivia Pope has been kidnapped.
My guesses:
Grey's: 2.7-2.8
Scandal: 3.4
Murder: 3.3
It should be close but I am going with an over, I hope Grey's can get there, I think that's the hardest one.
Over.
Our predictions are roughly on the same place.
Over
Grey's, let's say 2.7 at best. That leaves 6.7 between the other two.. to me it sounds too reliant on the best case scenario occurring for each show, especially with Grey's facing TBBT + Idol.
Under
Over
Btw, did you know Empire will premiere on FOXLife?
Grey's: 2.5-2.8
Scandal: 3.2-3.5
Murder: 3.1-3.4
My best case scenario has them at 9.7, my worst at 8.8, close call but I'm picking under.
Ugh.
Under
9.30 = 2.6 + 3.4 + 3.3.
I'm pretty sure all three shows will return at few ticks above fall finale, and some half a point bellow season premiere. As Spot used same logic for setting the line, no wonder me getting the same number, and having zero confidence in under being the right call here.
Under, but close.
Grey's Anatomy-2.7
Scandal-3.4
Murder-3.3
Over, but I'm really not sure.
Unofficial question thread!
Will Backstrom giving its ratings back?
Backstrom returns in week 2 with a lot of things against it. All three networks getting stronger at once (with Scandal possibly doing 5 times what the Taste did)
Over/Under: 1.45
Over.
Here's what I expect:
Grey's: 2.6
Scandal: 3.3
Murder: 3.1
That would total to 9...so under.
Under.
I was overly pessimistic and predicted a 1.4 for Backstrom's premiere, I'm sticking with it to be its week 2 rating.
I'll go under, and will pray to any god who will listen that I can finally get a question right this year.
Under
Ever so slightly UNDER
Under at 1.2. New shows often drop 20% in Week 2 even when competition doesn't change w2w. Here we have show that gets significantly increased competition, combined with bad word of mouth. Thumb down.
At the day Fox their announced midseason, I predicted around 4th episode Backstrom to be beaten by The Vampire Diaries in A18-49 (though not by Reign), and maybe even by Glee. Others corrected me. Backstrom won't fall so low, they said -- but only because this year Fox has Bones on the bench, so Backstrom will be pulled off the schedule swiftly (unlike last year when they were forced to put up with Rake for some time).
Greys-2.6
Scandal-3.4
HTGAWM-3.3
9.3 and Under but barely.
Of course they're more than thankful for their big TGIT night back after an embarrassing Sundays lineup, underwhelming bridge shows, etc.
Over, over, over.
Over
Under
Under with quite some confidence. But I actually think its biggest problem will be the blacklist as I believe there is more crossover there than with Scandal.
Under 9.35.
But ABC will gladly welcome back its TGIT lineup regardless.
We might say that NBC and FOX are on network's ICU, but USA is the ultimate example of a dead channel.
A 20% drop for a USA show today is a "success", their ratings standard is lower than ever, their past hits all ended as blips.
They might as well go against cable's current trend of airing more originals and just put NCIS/SVU repeats forever.
Over!
Me too. Actually I'm going with Over just because I was thinking about saying Under. lol
Don't see it happening. Murder and Scandal might do their parts to get over that hump, but I just think it's a big ask of Grey's based on the fall numbers. Under.
Over. Just by a hair.
Scandal 3.4
Murder 3.3-3.4
Grey's 2.6-2.7
Over.
Good idea, at least one of us can get on the board this year.
Under.
Another thing that's happened since the break: ABC News paying for an interview with Darren Wilson. That sparked some fairly significant boycott talk from the black feminists on my Twitter feed, and while I'm not sure that'll translate to *much* of a hit - especially considering the same demo have just flocked en masse to a show on FOX, given FNC's history - it's enough for me to go against my general itch to never underestimate this block.
I bow to the almighty Spot. A 9.3 actual combined preliminary rating vs your 9.35 selection is scary.
Hallelujah!
I was thinking exactly 9.3 at first, but I'm glad I went with Over on this one. :D
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