The Question, Thursday 1/22/15: Will Backstrom Detect an Audience?

Fox's smashing success with Empire is the biggest ratings story of 2015 to date. And tonight, the network looks to go two for two with American Idol lead-outs as they launch new crime drama Backstrom, the latest attempt to rekindle the House magic. It comes from Hart Hanson, a creator who has had great success on Fox with Bones, and stars recognizable TV face Rainn Wilson as what the promos call a "brilliant detective, total jerk." Starting off well tonight is essential as TGIT and then The Blacklist will liven up the Thursday landscape in the coming weeks. Will Backstrom detect an audience? That's The Question for Thursday, January 22, 2015.

Rake & American Idol This/Last Season

1.7 (Rake premiere, 1/23/14) 3.4 (American Idol, 1/23/14) (3.6 in 8:30 half-hour) 1.11 (Rake Thursday average) 3.1 -> 2.6 (Idol two-hour Thursday eps this season)

As I said a couple weeks ago, this show feels a lot like the legal drama Rake that Fox tried in this timeslot last season. That show was a huge bomb, only mustering a 1.7 on a premiere night with little competition, and it aired out of a stronger Idol than Backstrom should get tonight. Despite Fox's recent momentum with Empire, it's hard for me to see this show doing a lot better than Rake. But I'm also hesitant to go much lower, simply because Rake was a failure of an uncommon magnitude. So I see the opening ratings being pretty similar.

Over/Under: 1.75.

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