Rating: 2.0
Lead-in: America's Funniest Home Videos (1.3 overall, 1.4 at 7:30)
Competition: Madam Secretary (1.5), Dateline (1.3 overall, 1.8 / 2.1 in 8:00 hour), The Simpsons (4.7) / Brooklyn Nine-Nine (3.0)
WEEK TWO
Rating: 1.3 (-35%)
Lead-in: America's Funniest Home Videos (1.1 overall, 1.2 at 7:30)
Competition: 60 Minutes (3.9), Golden Globe Awards (5.8 overall, 5.8 in 8:00 hour), The Simpsons (2.0) / Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5)
Will this show get a second season? You make the call!
To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.
These choices must be locked by Monday, January 19 at 6:00 am ET.
3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.
59 comments:
Cancel (Confident)
Cancel (confident)
As I think about it, I can't think of a circumstance where I'd want to defer. It's not as if the AFC Championship game is going to be an easier than facing the Golden Globes. I think I'm just surprised that Galavant was able to get into the 2's and wonder if the show can bounce back in its final week. But of course we can't defer for that long.
Were this a cheap reality show, ABC would be happy with these ratings. But it's not.
Cancel (Confident)
Cancel (confident)
It's a burnoff, let's not overthink this. Cancel (Confident).
Cancel (confident)
Cancel (confident)
Cancel (confident)
Cancel (confident)
Cancel (confident)
Easy peasy.
Cancel (confident)
cancel - confident
Cancel (confident)
Cancel (confident)
Cancel Confident
Cancel (confident)
This is a case that reminds me of Madam Secretary as in I am not sure the networks could have went in expecting much better. Could ABC truly have expected the show to hold much better than it did against the globes? I seriously doubt it.
However, the numbers are still bad and there is another major event coming so there is little wiggle room there. I am saying Cancel, but I am going against everyone and saying not confident. I will pay for this, but well.
Cancel (Confident)
Long time no see! lol
Cancel (confident)
Ahah, I was on a conference for the week. I was still seeing everything, just not commenting so much. A lot of interesting results during the past week though.
Like Empire's rise.
Shark Tank is a monster.
It's interesting that the CW has quietly swapped HOD to 8pm. They originally announced it as leading out of a MOI/Whose Line(R) hour. This is a better arrangement for the show. I am not sure why the CW should cancel it to be honest. If it is able to keep these ratings, it is still useful for them in some capacity (spakle, summer, Friday).
As for CBS, it will be depressing to see TAR's return to the night after it has been proven how superior Boss is and how much it affects the entire night.
Meanwhile, ABC's 8 p.m. hour returned down to Earth with LMS and Cristela still hat average levels.
Interesting that Shark Tank hit a season high this week instead of last week when the 8:00 hour was stronger.
Smart move of The CW to shift Hart of Dixie to 8:00 instead of facing Glee. No need for the two female-leaning hour-longs to go against each other.
I think ST's jump can be attributed to greater visibility caused by the Tuesday.
As for HoD, I would argue that getting local programming lead-in is an even bigger advantage than avoiding Glee but yeah, that helps too.
Well, they already renewed 8 scripted shows, 3 reality shows, and have 2 midseason newbies yet to premiere. They don't have an overwhelming need for Spackle. If Jane had flopped or Reign been a WB propety, it would have had a chance
Yeah, that seems to be the only issue now for them, scheduling space.
Wow, 2.2 in A18-49 is just phenomenal for a Friday. To make a comparison with my favourite whipping boy, NBC's highest-rated regularly scheduled programme this week got 1.7 in A18-49 (although, admittedly, this was because SNL was a repeat).
The CW spent the entire summer with 0.2s on Thursdays from 8 to 10. Sure those were cost free repeats but doubling on first run ratings and getting those Netflix dollars could be profitable enough for a show as cheap as HoD. I don't really know enough about the financials of the show to make a guess here but I don't think it's an impossible possibility. This is the CW, a network that is a big fan of announced final seasons. If HoD didn't have a chance, Pedowitz would have announced it by now I think.
Scheduling + week two disinterest = Cancel (confident)
Glee is clearly not a threat and it hasn't been for a while, HoD always had its own steady audience and this was no exception.
I expected Last Man Standing and Cristela to lose some of what they gained with last week star guest stars appearances. I certainly didn't expect it to be this much (19% / 15%). Hopefully it came from rounding, maybe it's less when looking at ratings with two decimal places. But if it is indeed near 20%, then... not good.
Every time I start thinking Shark Tank moving to Tuesday 8 PM isn't so bad idea - boom, something like this happens, and it again seems completely crazy to move it anywhere.
Other than ABC, expected ratings elsewhere. Save for the World's Funniest Fails, for me 1.0 is shockingly high.
Fox renewed Empire at their TCA session, despite it only having aired 2 episodes. They also renewed Gotham and Brooklyn Nine-Nine.
That's three tenths better than Blackish who had an 173% better lead in! That's insane
Awesome! Did they mention episode count?
I watched three hours of unscripted last night (Undercover Boss, Shark Tank, Dateline). I don't think I've ever done that on any given night before. In fact all of the unscripted I watched this week was on Friday.
Undercover Boss' regular number is TAR's season high. That's insanse. And then you have Shark Tank tripling The Taste's average on Friday
I'm of the belief Shark Tank doesn't really get any lead-in support whatsoever. It just kinda does its own thing and sometimes will go high and sometimes will go low at complete random.
I would be very surprised if they renew Hart of Dixie, but after Beauty and the Beast renewal nothing coming from CW would shock me. It stems from Pedowitz being (and Ostroff was) completely not transparent about their renewal decisions. They say something only if journalists manage to squeeze it out of them. I mean, if this May Pedowitz says "We renewed The Incredibly Low-Rated Show because it's doing well in Schitt's Creek and other markets," then I would just shrug my shoulders. Because something like that wouldn't be unheard of any more.
That non-transparency (like, nobody knowing Schitt's Creek matters until after the fact) is annoying, but The CW is a private company, and they're not obligated to inform public about details of their business.
As for Hart of Dixie, I don't see room for it in regular season. Summer? Each season they're increasing number of original hours, that's not just empty words. This summer they will have record 24 hours of drama airing in summer (13 episodes of BatB, 7 of The Messengers, and 4 of iZombie). But I think Beauty and the Beast was one time thing, it had some things in its favor:
1. It has 12.5% Canadian federal tax break, because it has required percentage of above-the-line talent being Canadians. That is publicly known fact. So BatB comes with cheaper price tag than other The CW dramas.
2. People are claiming it's actually co-production with Canadians, like 50%-50%. I couldn't find anything proving it, but neither I was able to find something proving opposite. So, maybe.
3. Pedowitz said BatB is doing very well online and internationally (probably he meant "compared to other low-rated CW shows"). I think it was not just PR. Only incentive to lie about it would be not to anger fans of cancelled CW shows. And I don't think it's big enough reason to lie.
I think Hart of Dixie has nothing like that in its favor. But it's CW, so can I be sure? Not really.
No Sleepy Hollow? Weird.
They talked about changing the show to be more episodic. Reading between the lines, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a major retool and/or they fire the showrunner.
I think they will turn it into a 22 episode a season show and have it including more standalone episodes, a la Grimm.
Doesn't sound like it, but they don't usually do that at TCAs. Hell, sometimes we don't know the episode orders until fall.
Dateline probably got winged by 20/20. As one does. And the weak Constantine lead-in appears to have winged Grimy, too.
Also with that, Scream Queens, in a press release, has been confirmed for Fall 2015.
Cancel (confident)
Stop stealing 2 free points out of us, FOX.
It'll lose its identity, another SPN/Constantine show is not needed. They should go full Apocalypse next season and bring us the war.
Want it to more procedural. Probably they want to lower price tag a bit through negotiations. Quote for hitfix.com:
What's up with "Bones" and "Sleepy Hollow" for pickups?
"Frankly, we're in conversations with both," Walden says. Both David Boreanaz and Emily Deschanel need new deals but, "Nothing would make us happier than do another deal," she says. Walden says they'd like to make "Sleepy Hollow" a little bit less serialized, but she's "hopeful" it will come back, but notes that they love Tom Mison and Nicole Beharie.
Agreed. Now the inmates (from the in-house production company) are running the asylum, they will have one eye firmly on syndication income.
SH is produced by FOX though, so which price tag would they be reducing? I think it is about making sure it remains viable through syndication, in two ways:
1) Making sure it gets there, which they do with bigger seasons
2) Making sure they get a good deal for it, which they do with more procedural episodes
Only mild surprise is New Girl not being renewed already. I don't think New Girl is any danger of cancellation. Probably Fox just wants to see if there will be terrible ratings drop in spring again. If yes, then they will ask for discount on airing fee (whichever current is), but still renew it.
The Mindy Project - similar to New Girl, sure renewal, but they want to see spring ratings first. Only, Mindy's ratings are already pretty low, so it's not question of *if* Fox will ask for discount, it's rather *how big* discount they will ask for. And studio surely will agree on discount for show at 66 episodes count - that's were from comes "sure" in sure renewal. It makes big difference number is not something like 44 or 57.
All animated are renewed, or de facto renewed.
Bones - Fox chiefs said both Boreanaz and Deschanel need to renew contract first. Then it's likely renewal. But not sure renewal, it wouldn't be the first time money negotiations going awry.
Sleepy Hollow - for new bosses it's "overly serialized". Interesting. Maybe that's just negotiation tactics, but I consider SH just a bubble show now. For fall Fox already has Gotham, Empire, Scream Queen, probably Bones, and surely 1 or 2 more new drama = 5 or 6 hours. SH producers better not being cocky in negotiations - while I cannot see Fox premiering 4 new dramas in fall, I certainly can see them giving additional hour to reality or comedies, thus eliminating need for 7th drama.
Why then 20th Century wouldn't just give Sleepy Hollow to Fox Network for free? By your logic it doesn't matter what price tag is, so then even zero dollars per episode fits the bill.
Being produced by a sibling studio doesn't mean there are no negotiations about price. Though, it means negotiations (about the money, and any other) go much smoothed than with other studios.
I am a bit confused with you continuing to talk about FOX getting discounts for their own shows. FOX produces New Girl, I don't see which kind of negotiations it could go through. Or am I confused about how it works?
As for the rest, I still think SH is likely renewal. Like you've said, new girl is also a sure thing and wasn't renewed now. I think this was just FOX's way of being "buzzy", much like CBS did with the freshman renewals. They've renewed their two biggest (and only) freshman successes of the year and renewed the only show they gave a significant timeslot move/ upgrade to, which also happens to be a sophomore with a high degree of critical acclaim.
Cancel (Confident)
Cancel (Confident)
Cancel (Confident)
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