- FINALS UPDATE: Chicago PD (1.5), hour two of Hell's Kitchen (1.2) and Arrow (1.1) all adjusted up. That meant PD actually built on its SVU lead-in for the first time this season.
- ABC's comedies bounced back from disastrous results last week. The Middle (2.2) had the biggest win, all the way back into a tie with its season high from two episodes ago and up year-to-year. The Goldbergs (2.2) also did fine, hitting season-average levels (though failing to build on The Middle for the first time), while Modern Family (3.1) and Black-ish (2.3) remained clearly below average (even if up multiple tenths from last week). At least in the prelims, Nashville (1.5) actually won the tightly-packed 10/9c hour outright.
- NBC was the big loser of this Wednesday, bringing its three-hour procedural lineup back for a one-week original stint in the middle of two lengthy hiatuses. Bookends The Mysteries of Laura (1.2) and Chicago PD (1.4) each tied their season lows, but those didn't look as bad by comparison as Law and Order: SVU (1.4) dipped well below its previous season low.
- On CBS, it was a good night for Survivor (2.4) but not so much for low-tying Criminal Minds (2.1) and Stalker (1.4). Fox had two hours of Hell's Kitchen (1.2), while the CW's Arrow (1.0) came back to earth after last week's Flash crossover (but was still a tenth ahead of the episode before the crossover). The 100 preliminarily held at 0.6 despite the reduced lead-in.
FULL TABLE:
| Info | Show | Timeslot | True | |||||||
| A18-49 | Skew | Last | LeLa | Rank | y2y | TLa | Ty2y | |||
| The Middle | 2.2 | 34% | +38% | +0.6 | n/a | 1/9 | +10% | +38% | +10% | 2.2 |
| The Goldbergs | 2.2 | 38% | +29% | +0.5 | +0.6 | 4/9 | +38% | +29% | +47% | 2.1 |
| Modern Family | 3.1 | 41% | +11% | +0.3 | +0.5 | 9/10 | -11% | +11% | -11% | 2.9 |
| Black-ish | 2.3 | 40% | +10% | +0.2 | +0.3 | 9/10 | n/a | +10% | +28% | 1.9 |
| Nashville | 1.5 | 34% | +15% | +0.2 | +0.2 | 1/10 | +7% | +15% | +7% | 1.6 |
| ABC: | +19% | +9% | ||||||||
| Survivor | 2.4 | 32% | +14% | +0.3 | n/a | 4/12 | -4% | +12% | -4% | 2.4 |
| Criminal Minds | 2.1 | 26% | -5% | -0.1 | +0.3 | 9/10 | -13% | +2% | -13% | 2.0 |
| Stalker | 1.4 | 25% | -7% | -0.1 | +0.0 | 10/11 | n/a | -7% | -24% | 1.5 |
| CBS: | +4% | -13% | ||||||||
| The Mysteries of Laura | 1.2 | 19% | -14% | -0.2 | n/a | 9/10 | n/a | -38% | -33% | 1.3 |
| Law and Order: SVU | 1.4 | 26% | -22% | -0.4 | -0.2 | 9/9 | n/a | -32% | -24% | 1.6 |
| Chicago PD | 1.5 | 28% | -6% | -0.1 | -0.4 | 5/9 | n/a | -12% | +7% | 1.8 |
| NBC: | -28% | -19% | ||||||||
| Hell's Kitchen | 1.3 | 43% | +8% | +0.1 | n/a | 8/13 | n/a | +4% | -7% | 1.4 |
| Hell's Kitchen | 1.2 | 39% | -8% | -0.1 | n/a | 11/14 | n/a | +33% | -17% | 1.4 |
| Fox: | +16% | -12% | ||||||||
| Arrow | 1.1 | 46% | -21% | -0.3 | n/a | 2/9 | +0% | -21% | +5% | 1.1 |
| The 100 | 0.6 | 47% | +0% | +0.0 | -0.3 | 1/7 | n/a | +0% | +9% | 0.5 |
| CW: | -15% | +6% | ||||||||
| Big5: | -1% | -7% | ||||||||
KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
More Spotted Ratings in the Index.
49 comments:
So I guess the viewers just forgot to watch ABC comedies last week because of the Thanksgiving week off? Glad they're up especially The Middle! I wish Blackish was higher though that was a fun Christmas ep
NBC still refuses to release midseason schedule. Probably it's so embarrassing they'll announce it during holidays and on a Saturday.
CBS and Fox revealed all of their plans.
I expect The CW to finally announce schedule today. Because today is The Vampire Diaries fall finale, and last year The CW announced midseason schedule on the day of TVD fall finale (12/12/2013). I expected it to be earlier this season, but perhaps it has something to do with their PR department. Maybe they don't want to burden them too much. First let them handle fall finales, then turn their attention to midseason premieres.
ABC announced Fresh off the Boat for Tuesday 8 PM yesterday. Not promising comedy, and given bad slot (not that hey had much choice)..., O/U 5.0 episodes aired. Meaning, I expect it to air 3 in regular Tuesday slot before dropping bellow what they know Shark Tank repeats would beat.
The Whispers premiere isn't announced. I suspect it's because ABC is waiting to see Agent Carter ratings frist. If those are good, then they can launch it out of Carter's penultimate episode (02/17). Thus it would air 13 episodes straight with season finale at 05/12 (ehre I'm assuming 05/19 is DWTS finale). While, if Agent Carter flops, then they probably would launch it 03/03 out of SHIELD spring premiere. With some creative scheduling if it has more than 11 episdoes, or simply spilling it into summer.
The Astronaut Wives Club (I think it's 10 episodes) should be either:
A. Wednesday 10 PM in April, with Motive season premiere pushed back to late June / early July
B. Tuesday 10 PM in late June (after NBA finals are over), if they don't plan Wife Swap or whatever reality for that timeslot.
We will know more when we see how they're scheduling Nashville. If it runs repeat free, then it's option A. Otherwise (Nashville in repeats whenever comedies are in repeats), then probably it's option B, but I'm not sure, I'm just guessing here.
Good year to have Miami in your title then!
Spot,
What was the Plus of the Next Joe Millionaire. Wasn't it like a flop in Plus following the first season as a megahit??
This is great for the Middle and the Goldbergs. The Middle is know of its consistency, and deservedly so, but it also can take random massive drops and surges for no apparent reason. I mean its lead in shouldn't fluctuate that much as its local programming. Maybe getting rid of Kid's Jeopardy for regular gave it a boost?
.
Kinda crazy to think about, but the Middle's "Winter Finale" is actually a tick stronger than the Winter Finale of Shield last year! We've reached the point where the Middle is going to be basically the same sized lead in as the second half of Shield for the Goldbergs. Still an impressive 30+% growth from the Goldbergs!
Great for the Arrow. It's crazy we live in a world where three CW shows can hit a 1.0 in a single week and NONE of them is the Vampire Diaries!
Perhaps they were planning on demoting Jane in some respect, and are now reconsidering it? Mixing its recent Gold Globes Nomination with its surge in the sub demos you mentioned yesterday, and a week showing from anchor The Originals, I think they may be reconfiguring their schedule to keep it in its slot
71, so just two points away from flop. 76% year-to-year decline on the same night!
Holy crap! That's awful! :)
Fox getting weaker between this season and 2003-2004 makes sense just because of how enormous Joe Millionaire was. The network essentially had a Super Bowl lead-out sized show on the air for multiple weeks.
Getting another year older usually means a decline of some kind. But I wonder if NBC's lineup got a boost during the 2001-2002 season because of 9/11. After that day, perhaps programming that either provided some kind of laughable escapism (Friends, Frasier) or comfort in thinking that systems like criminal justice (Law & Order) or government (The West Wing) that protect the United States became more popular. Unless/until there's data from the 2000-2001 season to see if there was a bounce, that's my armchair guess as to why the shows took a hit this year.
8 Simple Rules is pretty much the predecessor to Last Man Standing: sitcom fronted by a TV star that launched on ABC Tuesdays, but eventually moved to Fridays after not being the night's savior the execs thought it would be.
One thing to keep in mind is that Angel only aired one-third of its season on Sundays. It moved to replace the failed Birds of Prey. And that Angel remained strong even in its most-serialized season is impressive.
Arrow and Supernatural are holding up well this year, but the Vampire shows are down big and have sucky lead outs. I mean at least they got the Top Model bleeding to stop, but stabalizing at .4 is pretty bad
Arrow yes. Good, but not great. Whose Line Is It Anyway, too.
Supernatural, no. Despite much stronger lead-in it's down 12% (so, more than 20% in True). Much of it probably can be attributed to getting SHIELD into timeslot, but real question here is: How much worse would SPN do with some other lead-in?
In the meanwhile, The Vampire Diaries is down 34% in W18-34 (and practically same 33% in A18-49). It got Grey's into timeslot, but this is still really bad result.
The Originals - similar story, tougher timeslot can't justify huge 43% drop in W18-34 (and "only" 35% in A18-49). And trend is not favorable, as season goes on, its average is getting closer and closer to 3 ratings failures.
Speaking of which, losers Jane, Reign, The 100 - those 0.5-0.6 ratings are equivalent to 0.8-1.0 on big 4. Timeslot improvement? Nah, that's PR crap. It's same as when Forever does awful, and ABC declares it's a big win because it's improving on Lucky 7. First, even infomercials would rate better than unlucky Lucky 7. Second, who ordered it to series (and Killer Women / Mind Games / The Assets... ) in the first place?
2000-01 data would certainly be interesting, and your theory is certainly an interesting one!
Incidentally, I gather that the WWTBAM? collapse was partly related to 9/11 too - the show kept airing celebrity episodes in 2001-02 because it was difficult to get contestants to fly to NYC where the show taped, and that likely accelerated the burnout. (The celebrity episodes causing the burnout would certainly dovetail with how the show's had a very decent second life indeed in syndication - whilst subsequent European game show imports Weakest Link and Deal or No Deal, WWTBAM? has clocked a decade and counting, helped by the budget-saving use of greatly increased question difficulty compared to the ABC run: I don't even think there's been a $1m question this decade, and the last $1m win - not counting a November 2009 tournament sweeps stunt - was in May 2003!)
There was a million-dollar question within the last 18 months on the syndicated version, because of the rule changes. Folks seem to believe that the syndicated version will be cancelled this season as the ratings have really dropped off over the past couple of years.
Celebrity episodes of a reality show that normally features regular people is usually a sign that the show's on the downside. But I think the biggest piece of Millionaire's decline was airing it up to five times a week in 2000-2001 to patch up holes. Same thing with NBC's Deal or No Deal and its overexposure a few years later.
Great ratings for CW but they need better 9 pm options. ABC had a nice rebound.
NBC is such an embarassment
PS: about Jane being nominated to the GGs, can it becone CW's The Good Wife, with poor ratings backed up by awards? Probably this is just wishful thinking by me.
Joe Millionaire Plus: 277
11 years later...
I Wanna Marry Harry Plus: ...55? I guess...
Man, times sure were different.
Hey!
The Mysteries of Harry's Law on NBC was one of the number one shows last night!
In total viewers...
As far as CW, the golden globe pretty much seals Jane's 3 season renewal IMO.
I don't get why they had NBC episodes on Wednesday. It was only for one episode after a two-week hiatus. And it's probably the only lineup on NBC that will stay the same all season, so why not just plug in a repeat and use those for 2015? There isn't any rush to. Bah, whatever.
ABC went back nicely to their beautiful flow, which is always nice to see. CBS didn't do so hot, but it could have been worse.
...well, I'm of the belief that quality really doesn't impact renewal chances, and this includes awards contention. Maybe Good Wife got the first 2 or 3 seasons due to acclaim, but you could also bring up it being owned by CBS Studios. And later seasons mainly for its big $2.5M an ep syndication deal. If CW really thinks Jane can catch on with the GG nomination maybe it'll get renewed, but I'm not sure. But keep in mind I don't keep track of CW's ratings, except that I know Reign, Jane, and 100 are in a pity renewal battle.
Completely forgot about that one! So correction - there hasn't even been a $500k win this decade. :)
Yeah, I can't see another renewal for the show. Carousel hosts and a tax-dodging move to Connecticut studios are both signs of a show in hard cost-cutting move, and the ratings keep falling.
I think critical acclaim surely would help Jane if the race is very close. But that it wouldn't be the case if Reign and/or iZombie would be clearly ahead of it.
If season would end now, I think Reign would get nod over Jane, because I consider it ahead of Jane by some 10% currently (thanks to Netflix probably paying more for veterans shows' episodes). But it's not even half of the season, and Jane now will have more buzz, and it turned around ratings downtrend this week... I'm not saying Jane will overtake Reign in the remainder of the season for sure, but merely that it's not far behind, and things are not trending well for Reign, so everything is possible.
I'm seeing it as a two separate races for at least 2 renewals, and maximum 3 renewals:
The 100 vs Messengers for 13 or so episodes order. I'm pretty sure Messengers will flop, so I think The 100 would be renewed, but for midseason. Not for fall, because I think CW will pair The Flash with their most promising rookie, which would bump Supernatural to Wed 9 PM. In turn, it would bump The 100 to midseason, because it's really not compatible with neither of TVD and TO.
Jane vs Reign vs iZombie for 22 episodes order. To be paired with TVD or TO, depending where CW will want to launch second new drama. The CW may surprise me by launching 3 new fall dramas, and then it could be 13 episodes, but I really don't see how they would not renew 1 of this 3 (unless they're secretly preparing reducing number of drama hours). And it could actually be 2 of 3 (for total 8 dramas renewed) - in case they again would order only 4 new dramas, they maybe would want to pair female-oriented. low-expectations drama with ANTM on Friday.
Anyway, in this race I don't see clear favorite. Because iZombie looks like hit or miss. And I expect a miss, simply because they pushed it to midseason. But that's just my opinion.
Yes, I didn't explain it at all in my comment. Because Pedowitz in fall always premeired at least 1 male oriented show and at least 1 female oriented show. So, my line of thought is:
Male oriented newbie goes to Tuesday 9 PM.
Sacrificial lamb on Thursday vs Scandal - I expect it to be low rated veteran, Reign or Jane (maybe even iZombie), much more likely than rookie.
Then female oriented newbie goes to Monday 9 PM.
Finally, that leaves only Wednesday 9 PM for Supernatural.
Because it'd NBC. Bah.
NBC had a bad Wednesday. But maybe that was just a one time thing. Wait and see.
Hell's Kitchen only 12% y2y lower than (at least) 5x more expensive The X-Factor. Not to say HK is a winner, but certainly shows what a loser TXF was.
Tonight The Big Bang Theory should score high 4s. At least, according to my theories that TGIT hurts it a lot. If it won't? Wouldn't be the first time my theory went down the toilet. Nor the last time.
A little surprised that Stalker lost to Chicago PD AND Nashville. I definitely think CBS will cut the full season order down to 18.
I could be totally off base, but I just don't see The CW fully axing a show with critical acclaim and two Golden Globes nominations. I know these things don't bring in money, but I think for a network like CW, those kinds of intangibles matter. Either way, I don't see Jane getting shuttled off to Fridays now. It will be interesting to see where things fall come spring. I'm actually quite curious to see where things end up for TVD - aren't the actors' contracts up this season? I'm pretty sure at least one of the core three wants off that show, and I'm not sure there's enough money available to keep all three onboard. If that proves to be the case, and they can only keep two of them, for instance, will the CW renew?
I'd be fairly confident The 100 is dunzo now. Jane and Reign both have more compelling renewal reasons. Wouldn't care to guess which of those wins out, but either way they are the ratings bar the midseasoners have to clear to even be in the conversation.
Yup, dreadful scheduling there. For me, PD building in SVU is huge. If that is carried through into 2015, SVU is undisputed bearchow.
It's eve more puzzling when they had the sing off on the bench and ready to go and pull comparable numbers and yet decided to just air it for one night next week. Why not make it a multiple night event again and save original episodes for later? At least for Wednesday they should have aired it.
PD may have built on SVU but I don't think it would pull the same numbers without SVU, so SVU's strength is still there. Besides, I think this is arguably the first really bad data point SVU has had the entire fall and it's not like it was that bad anyway, it was only down 11% year to year, a perfectly average league drop.
I agree with principle but for the last years the CW has always made a move that was somehow surprising to me. I didn't think they would air The Originals on a separate night from the parent show and I didn't think they would move TO this year. In hindsight, both of those decisions make sense, I just didn't think they would happen at the time.
For instance, one thing to bear in mind is that The Vampire Diaries will probably have an announced final season next year. So if they put a sacrificial lamb Thursdays 9pm, that means the season after they are forced to start from scratch on the entire night, which would be ill advised. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities that they move The Originals or Supernatural to Thursdays 9pm, not only to fix the slot but to prepare for a Thursday sans TVD, which will soon be a reality. That scenario could then have a house of cards effect on the rest of the schedule that could even result on the 100 keeping its fall slot if they don't have two male skewing shows worth premiering (in any case, even if they premiere two male skewing dramas ,that's still probably good for the 100 as there is more reason to keep it as backup since the odds of a replacement being needed are higher)
Possibilities:
Monday: TO | New female skewing drama
Tuesday: The Flash | New male skewing drama
Wednesday: Arrow | New Male Skewing Drama or The 100
Thursday: The Vampire Diaries | Supernatural
Friday: Reign or the Virgin | America's Next Top Model and then Whose Line | Reign or the Virgin
Monday: New female skewing drama | Supernatural
Tuesday: The Flash | New male skewing drama
Wednesday: Arrow | New male skewing drama or The 100
Thursday: The Vampire Diaries | The Originals
Friday: Reign or the Virgin | Ameica's Next Top Model and then Whose Line | Reign or the Virgin
I am not saying these are more likely than yours, but I think they are at the very least possible. And in picking between the two, I would tend to favor the second option. Yes, the first has the bird in one advantage of already having TO on Mondays and not Supernatural, but launching a promising drama paired with Supernatural has worked well for them in the past. It depends on the type of drama. If it's another Virgin then it's a fool's errand but if it's another TO (a female skewing show but with enough supernatural elements to appeal to the genre crowd) it's not a bad plan.
A month ago I was almost sure the 100 was doomed but schedule considerations have me more optimistic. See my pots above for a lengthier explanation about what I mean, but basically I think it's highly possible that the CW keeps Tuesday and Wednesday as male nights and uses Supernatural to patch things up either on Monday or Thursday. In that case, the CW could use the 100 either if A) they only have one male skewing show to launch in the fall, which allow the 100 to return to the post arrow slot or B) they have two male skewing shows to launch in the fall (post arrow and post flash), but that also means the odds of needing a reliable replacement like the 100 are higher, so the 100 could easily get another midseason launch as a result.
I think I was one of the first to suggest that they finished Nashville earlier to run AWC there but Nashville is actually doing much better in the ratings then I thought it would be doing. If it keeps up in January, then I don't see much reason to mess with it at this point. ABC already has a lot to promote for the spring actually (Secrets and Lies, American Crime, presumably The Whispres, the return of Shield, the return of OUAT, maybe Beyond the Tank) and they could certainly use a decent drama on the summer schedule.
As for NBC and the CW, it's getting seriously annoying that they don't release their midseason schedules. The most bugging aspect for me is Thursdays at 8 for NBC. I am starting to believe they will put Game Night there, which would probably be the worst scheduling move in recent memory, I can't even believe it. But if they were to put there a new drama they would have to had announce it already. And I know you think it could be a second cycle of TBL, but the first one ends the week before The Blacklist premieres (or two weeks before, not important), so I don't believe they would have two cycles back to back like that.
True enough, but SVU seems to get harder to renew from a cost standpoint every year. If 1.4 is where it holds in the spring I think it's done, but it's certainly not been a 1.4 show through the fall...
I've see CSI executives talk about how 9/11 did wonders for CSI ratings as going after the bad guys and bringing them to justice became so much more likable. I have also seen things where shows based in New York (like Friends) got nice boosts because of a newfelt American loyalty to the injured city
My idea for next year CW:
Monday:
Originals
NEW
Tuesday:
The Flash
NEW
Wednesday:
Arrow NEW
Thursday:
Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
Friday:
Reign
Jane
Bench:
Top Model
Whose Line
The 100
At its current ratings level, those might save it. But if Jane drops to like a .2, then it simply won't matter.
I think there is virtually no chance of the CW renewing all of its fall shows which is what your schedule implies. I also don't think they have any incentive to do so because they would get comparable ratings on Friday with at least one of Whose Line and Top Model. For the sake of Whose Line, I think Season 3 should run Spring-Summer and take a break on the fall this year so that people can miss the show. But Top Model should get the fall schedule to amortize costs, especially if you want to have 3 new shows.
Other than that, launching 3 new shows certainly depends on development. Your schedule would imply they would have 2 strong male skewing shows and 1 strong female skewing show. The CW has never launched 2 male skewing shows in the fall. It's not a big precedent since it's only been 3 years since they've started going for the male audience and one can argue they could have done it last year if they wanted to launch both TTP and The 100 in the fall, but it really hinges a lot on development. If they don't have a second strong male show, The 100 probably stays put.
Compare the Flash and Arrow to Originals and Vampire Diaries. The 100 to Reign. The male anchors are shadowing the female anchors. Even the male bubble is unshining the female bubble! It is in their best interest to launch more than 1 male show IMO.
Not saying it isn't but I am not sure development will allow for that.
In addition, Pedowitz seems committed (not only saying so, but actually acting like it) in keeping the schedule with as much variety as possible, which is clear by the 2 male | 2 female nights split (Supernatural is a hybrid though). Therefore, the argument that the male part of the schedule is doing much better than the female one can also be seen as exactly the reason as to why focus more on developing the female portion (especially because, as I was saying before, TVD is soon ending and that it will hurt them).
I think your schedule is unlikely, because Jane, Reign and The 100 are all at 0.6 or lower already before usual spring drop
= money losers, and I doubt they would renew all 3 of their money losers (probably it will be 4 in the end, with Originals fading fast). OK, maybe they'll have no other choice (if both midsesson shows flop + they don't like their pilots), but still I think then CW would look to push 2 of pity renewals to the midseason (not all 3, that would be too much).
If all their show would average at least 0.8 at the season end, then your schedule would be acceptable. Only, I would have Jane leading into more explicit Reign, not the other way around.
I imagine that's part of the reason the third CSI spinoff went to New York. I was hoping that they'd pick a different big city like Chicago.
How much growth CSI got from renewed patriotism after 9/11 is a little difficult to measure since season 1's average is pulled down by the Friday episodes. Looking at comparable episodes between seasons 1 and 2, though, there's about a half point bounce on average.
The CBS shows are on Friday to rack up episode counts. They are ratings losers. First run ratings aren't their purposes for continuing. The 100 is also on the brench simply because the CW has an epic past of midseason flops, so if one of the new shows flop, even the 100 will probably do better.
Why would they rack episodes? To rack up even more losses? There's no zillions of syndication money waiting for those shows in syndication. Those are not cop procedurals, those CW teen soaps rarely got syndicated. And when Gossip Girl did get syndication deal, it was for small money, and it was epic fail (pulled very soon).
It's completely opposite, CBS Productions want those to stop airing as soon as possible, they want to replace it with some rookies that at least have theoretical chance to return investment.
Again we agree about most of the things. Again we disagree about The 100.
I agree Friday 8 PM won't be a drama in fall - because some of those low rated dramas would get around 0.3 on Friday, while they can get better than that from ANTM or Whose Line. And those come at lower price - so double win.
I agree Friday 9 PM in fall could be renewed low rated drama. But I think it would be the case only if they wouldn't already have such one on Thursday 9 PM. There's no need for 2 of such, right? However, I think they will put Reign at Thu 9 PM (or Jane if Reign ratings drop even more), so I think there will be no dramas on Friday in fall.
I agree they will very likely have 2 new dramas, But I'm not excluding it could be 3 rookies, in case they would like their pilots, That is similar as in previous seasons - they have 4 sure renewals + Originals because of cancellation bear rule. Same as eery year, while they would like to cancel all of their losers, but their pilots usually look poor to them, so they don't trust those rookies enough to give them 3 fall timeslots. In turn, they renew 1 or 2 more losers that they would like to - simply because CW is afraid new shows would be even bigger losers.
All in all, our disagreement is only in this:
You think they will try to repair Thursday with Supernatural on Thu 9 PM, and pity renewed drama at Fri 9 PM which leaves The 100 at Wednesday.
I think they will try to strengthen Wednesday with Supernatural, throw in the towel on Thursday 9 PM with pity renewed drama, and no dramas on Friday (in fall only), which pushes The 100 to midseason.
I don't think networks can cut the orders of shows from outside production companies.
Yes, you've summarized it quite well in terms of what our disagreements here. I just think that one can make the case that they already threw the towel on Thursday this season so doing it twice in a row would be really admitting they are at a loss as to what to do with the night. And like I said, I think things would be different if TVD wasn't ending, but since it is, I think they wold prefer to establish something there next season than to try to start from scratch the year after. Just my guess, but well, agree to disagree.
And a lot really hinges on development by the way. If they have two male shows they really like, I fully expect them to launch them both in the fall Wednesday and Tuesday. But the odds of that happening aren't that great.
(There are also this year's midseason shows, but we're both leaving them out of the equation for now, presumably assuming none will be renewed. I need to at least see a schedule before including them in any scenario).
If those midseason shows would rate good (like 0.8+), then they're dumb for not premiering it in in fall and pushing Jane or The 100 to midseason. But Pedowitz is completely opposite of dumb, and CW always correctly picks most promising rookies for the fall - so I think best case for those 2 is 0.5-0.6, like The 100 year ago. In fact, in my opinion it will be 0.3-0.4. For The Messengers I'm sure, but Maybe iZombie surprises.
All in all, I don't think CW midseason can outrate Reign/Jane/The 100 in ratings. Maybe they could tie one/more of those in ratings, but then to be cancelled because of episode count factor.
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