- FINALS UPDATE: After finals, it was still a nice night for CBS' 8/7c hour, as The Big Bang Theory (4.5) was up two tenths for the second straight week, marking a solid recovery from its initial stumble after moving to Thursday. And Mom (2.6) finished up three tenths to a new series high. Two and a Half Men (2.1) was even week-to-week, The McCarthys (1.4) down a tenth, and Elementary down two more tenths to a simply ridiculous 1.0. I had always thought CBS would ride this one out on Thursday for the season, but... this is getting really bad.
- Bones (1.3) got a finals uptick to avoid a new season low, but The Vampire Diaries (0.7) did not this time.
- Week three of CBS' lineup will once again have to wait for finals due to pre-emptions in both of the Thursday Night Football markets. It's hard to imagine Mom (2.8) won't end up at least a bit above last week's 2.3, and The Big Bang Theory (4.5) may be up as well. But Two and a Half Men (2.2) and The McCarthys (1.6) each beat last week's finals by just a tenth and Elementary (1.2) was even.
- TGIT's domination intensified in its penultimate edition of 2014 as Scandal (3.2) shot up to its biggest rating since week two and How to Get Away with Murder (2.9) was also up a tenth.
- Elsewhere, even more ugliness than usual. Bones (1.2) shed another tenth on Fox, NBC saw Parenthood (1.0) hit a new low leading out of a particularly horrific A to Z (0.6), and The Vampire Diaries (0.7) will (as usual) hope for a finals boost to avoid its first 0.7 of the season.
FULL TABLE:
| Info | Show | Timeslot | True | |||||||
| A18-49 | Skew | Last | LeLa | Rank | y2y | TLa | Ty2y | |||
| Grey's Anatomy | 2.4 | 36% | +0% | +0.0 | n/a | 4/7 | -8% | +2% | +167% | 2.4 |
| Scandal | 3.2 | 40% | +10% | +0.3 | +0.0 | 3/8 | +10% | +10% | +25% | 2.9 |
| How To Get Away With Murder | 2.9 | 40% | +4% | +0.1 | +0.3 | 5/8 | n/a | +4% | +2% | 2.6 |
| ABC: | +6% | +35% | ||||||||
| The Big Bang Theory | 4.5 | 34% | +5% | +0.2 | n/a | 6/9 | -13% | +7% | -13% | 4.3 |
| Mom | 2.6 | 30% | +13% | +0.3 | +0.2 | 1/3 | +37% | +13% | +0% | 2.0 |
| Two and a Half Men | 2.1 | 30% | +0% | +0.0 | +0.3 | 2/3 | +0% | +0% | +0% | 1.9 |
| The McCarthys | 1.4 | 28% | -7% | -0.1 | +0.0 | 3/3 | n/a | -7% | -33% | 1.3 |
| Elementary | 1.0 | 19% | -17% | -0.2 | -0.1 | 3/3 | -38% | -13% | -39% | 1.3 |
| CBS: | +2% | -18% | ||||||||
| The Biggest Loser | 1.2 | 34% | +0% | +0.0 | n/a | 6/10 | -33% | +0% | +4% | 1.4 |
| Bad Judge | 0.9 | 36% | +0% | +0.0 | +0.0 | 5/7 | n/a | +0% | +0% | 1.1 |
| A to Z | 0.6 | 32% | -25% | -0.2 | +0.0 | 7/7 | n/a | -25% | -33% | 0.9 |
| Parenthood | 1.0 | 35% | -23% | -0.3 | -0.2 | 8/8 | -17% | -20% | -20% | 1.4 |
| NBC: | -11% | -11% | ||||||||
| Bones | 1.3 | 30% | +0% | +0.0 | n/a | 5/7 | -19% | +0% | -4% | 1.5 |
| Gracepoint | 0.8 | 29% | +14% | +0.1 | +0.0 | 3/7 | n/a | +23% | -43% | 1.0 |
| Fox: | +8% | -24% | ||||||||
| The Vampire Diaries | 0.7 | 58% | -13% | -0.1 | n/a | 7/7 | -46% | -7% | -46% | 0.7 |
| Reign | 0.4 | 43% | +0% | +0.0 | -0.1 | 3/7 | -43% | -11% | -38% | 0.5 |
| CW: | -8% | -44% | ||||||||
| Big5: | +0% | -7% | ||||||||
KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
More Spotted Ratings in the Index.
71 comments:
One large-market team and one small-market team in the Buffalo-Miami matchup, so I'd expect a fairly chunky adjustment. Elementary might be as low as 1.0, and that really would make it a legitimate test of "three full seasons means a fourth" scheduling wisdom. Probably more of one than Nashville at this point.
Even the huge Scandal numbers this season were slightly below my ridiculous expectations for the fall - I was probably just rooting for a megahit drama on broadcast again! - but I never expected this level of retention from Murder, so a massive win. The entirety of Thursday is toxic, and the one network who could have survived the mess is the one network who messed with it (and the #1 show on broadcast, to boot) for football. One more step to ABC winning the season!
As for NBC, apparently they really should have gone Community/Parks and waved their hands in the air. We all wondered how they could do worse than the niche shows, and we've been finding out.
The thing with Elementary is that it already has a massive syndication deal with it. The biggest argument we usually make against the syndication paradigm is something like "which network would really pay that much for a low rated serial/ soap to air five times a week?" but in Elementary there already is an answer to who is paying, so I don't think it qualifies for the test. If anything, The Mindy Project is a bigger test.
TGIT is a monster of epic proportions. The fact that they are destroying CBS in a big bag led night in such a big way speaks volumes. ABC should probably be going all in right now to make sure Ellen Pompeo doesn't leave Grey's anytime in the next decade and that Viola Davis agrees to full seasons.
I kind of thought that Grey's Anatomy would end next season. The move to an earlier hour would ding it enough to make it financially infeasible even though it would post the best numbers (in either raw or Plus) since Ugly Betty season one, and the leads only have deals through 2015-2016. Now, if the show holds up like this through the season? ABC Studios should consider how many Brinks trucks it'll have to back up to Ellen Pompeo and Patrick Dempsey's houses to dump cash for them to stay.
At this juncture, A to Z should just be pulled for either a Marry Me/About a Boy rerun. Or just blow up the comedy hour for drama repeats: The Blacklist reruns would prepare the audience for the move, Constantine/The Mysteries of Laura reruns could increase sampling, and the Dick Wolf Universe shows would probably post the best numbers. Or move Parenthood up an hour and put the repeats at 10:00. Or reedit The Biggest Loser episodes out to two hours again. Does this make my point yet that NBC has better options that it could use?
The Mindy Project would be a bigger test since it'll be 27 episodes away from stripped syndication numbers and because it's a more niche sitcom (think Happy Endings). The Millers reminds me of Til Death: a broad multi-cam sitcom with fraudulent ratings but backed by a production studio determined to get it into the syndication afterlife. At least in The Millers' case it's a show that's in CBS' wheelhouse whereas Til Death was not on Fox.
Back to Mindy real quick, I do think the remote possibility of moving to NBC next season shouldn't be completely off the table. The network has no comedy brand, it's produced/distributed by their sister studio, and I think NBC wouldn't mind remaining in the Mindy Kaling business. This is all very unlikely (a cable move like to MTV, VH1, or a ComcastNBCUniversalGE conglomerate network could be in play too) but not impossible.
There's still a problem: Scandal has a limited run. According to Shonda, it will most likely end on season seven or eight.
Well, they're basically even ratings wise until 10. Elementary really drags them down
I feel Mindy will land somewhere. It has the general feeling of being a young-skewing cult hit, plus there's enough episodes in the can to make it a realistic syndication prospect. Wouldn't like to predict where, though. I'd suggest Netflix but they already have that Apatow series starring Gillian Jacobs in the pipeline plus the rights to New Girl, and they like to have some variety in their acquisitions. Perhaps Lifetime? They're short of content and they did save Molly Dodd, afterall.
...that prediction makes me sad for Happy Endings, which probably died a year too early for someone to pick it up.
And just like that, Fox picks up 6 more episodes of Mindy, making my comment from less than 10 minutes ago redundant. D'oh.
I personally don't see an 8-year tenure as a "limited run."
What I meant is that Scandal has an expiration point. It's not one of those shows that can last forever.
But by that point, surely ABC will find some sort of successor.
ABC didn't find a successor to the 9 p.m. anchoring hour up until Grey's ninth season or so.
Why just 6 though? I see no reason if they are going to add 6 episodes why they shouldn't go for 22
Season 1 had 24 episodes, so I'm guessing they're going with two seasons of 21 episodes to take them to 88.
Question:
How high do you think ABC's line-up will go for the finals?
My predictions:
Grey's: 2.6
Scandal: 3.4/3.5
HTGAWM: 3.2/3.3
Adjustments:
TBBT stayed the same;
Mom lost two tenths but still set a new series high;
2 1/2 Men lost one tenth;
The McCarthys lost two tenths;
Elementary lost two tenths.
Bones adjusted up a tenth as per Showbuzzdaily
New Girl has 23 episodes this season, so it will get a 1 hour finale
Elementary at a 1.0 in finals. I don't remember when was the last time a collapse of this magnitude happened.
Does anyone think there is any chance that CBS at least considers burning it on Saturdays? It's doing such horrible results, I have trouble including it in any possible schedule.
It wouldn't do any harm on Sunday at 10.
Nice for MOM.
Yeah, that's the only realistic place they could burn it, I agree.
The Superbowl lift that never materialized.
Grey's: 2.7
Scandal: 3.5
HTGAWM: 3.3
Last season, no CBS show hit a 1.0 in season.
Elementary is doing it in november, CBS should try Cyber there and move it to sundays at 10.
The Bad Judge / A to Z dynamic duds should be pulled immediately. There is no reasonable explanation to keep airing the already shot episodes, let alone film additional ones to meet the original commitment. NBC should be airing encore Blacklist episodes at least,
Just saying "CSI" and "Cyber" in the same breath makes me giggle like a little boy.
Why would people watch Elementary on CBS, when they will soon be able to watch it on WGN in syndication?
With 1.4 The McCarthys likely bought itself one more airing (until Thanksgiving), and maybe few more in December.
The Big Bang Theory - I think lot of its y2y drop can be attributed to Grey's. TBBT peaked? Perhaps. Moving around the schedule caused losing few tenths? Very likely.
But I compared data for 14.11.2013 and 13.11.2014. provided by SonOfTheBronx.
Total viewers: down 8% , -1.4 millions.
A18-49: down -13% , -890,000 viewers (so, 50+ & 17- down by only 510K)
A18-34 down -29% , down big 740,000 viewers (400K female and 340 K male)
A35-49 down only 4%, 150K viewers.
The most significant change in 8 PM hour was ABC moving Grey's there this season, and TBBT is losing most viewers in demos where Grey's is strong. Then I'm pretty much sure Grey's is hurting TBBT a lot. Of course, I'm not saying that's the only factor causing TBBT softening, but I suspect that is the biggest one.
There are two possible slots for Elementary: Fridays or Sundays at 10:00. Of the two, CBS could swap it and CSI right now; switching it and Blue Bloods doesn't provide as much upside. And I don't want it to swap with Hawaii Five-O as that could damage Blue Bloods.
According to Deadline, The Millers has been canceled. So perhaps Mom is going to stay in the post-BBT slot all season. Also lends itself to 2.5 Men ending in May and The McCarthy's making room for The Odd Couple since Mike & Molly will most likely be staying on Mondays
Yes, all like you said. Only question remains is when exactly The McCarthys is replaced The Odd Couple.
Monday 8:30 PM is now probably: 2 weeks of TBBT repeats, then 2 weeks of Mike & Molly, followed by 2 weeks of holidays hiatus, then Mike & Molly all the way till May. I suppose it needs to be preemmpted only for NCAA basketball championship game, so it can air for 20 weeks. They need to double it up twice, with two less 2BG repeats, and they're fine.
One guess: take however many episodes The Odd Couple has in its order, then add 3 and count the number of Thursdays backwards from the final one of May Sweeps (May 14). I say that to allow for three weeks of preemptions to cover the 2 weeks of March Madness and 1 week where Two and a Half Men will take over the 9:00 hour for its series finale.
The other possibility is pulling The McCarthys in December so CBS can give Odd the best chance to launch in January when ABC and NBC are dormant with reruns/filler.
Can't wait to see how The Cancellation Bear spins this in his post next week. :-) :-) :-) :-) :-)
Someone must have unfrozen Les Moonves from his cryogenic deep freeze.
Your complicated method, with assumed 13 episodes of The Odd Couple, gives January 29th. That's the date TGIT returns from hiatus, so I sincerely doubt it.
Then my I vote goes to your other, less complicated, method - January 8th it is.
As for The Cancellation Bear - if you don't make mistakes, you don't make anything. For me the bear is not problematic, more problematic are gullible and lazy people believing whatever the bear says is the gospel, and non just an opinion.
When was the last time a sophomore was axed this suddenly and early in the season? I mean, even huge sophomore bombs like Don't Trust The B and Smash got to complete their episode orders.
Maybe it's just me but the scheduling for CBS original programming this Fall is starting to feel like one of those Whac-A-Mole arcade games. You never know where one show will pop up next. It's a test of fan loyalty and patience for sure. That being said, Saturday is always a possibility but Elementary just seems like it would be a respectable fit with The Good Wife audience at 10pm Sundays..
With Elementary's fall from mediocre ratings to abysmal, I wonder if WGN will attempt to renegotiate down the very generous price they have agreed to pay to air Elementary in syndication or if they could ultimately pull out of the deal altogether. I'm not sure a rating of 1.0 or below qualifies as a "force majeure" in a contract but there are no doubt contingency and escape clauses for a product that has not yet been delivered. The one potential bright spot for Elementary is its traditionally strong L7 ratings which might be of considerable value to a syndication buyer in gauging a show's true popularity and potential.
As if TGIT didn't already look like enough of a win...
And just like that, CBS has woken up to reality and has made what I thought would be the most interesting decisions of the upfronts right now, taking a definitive stance in the whole: do we want to be a syndication farm or do we want to be in the run for first run ratings thing.
With this decision, I think it opens up to a potential new schedule next year that includes only two hours of comedy, like I wanted them to do but thought was kind of a long shot with the millers needing a scheduling space.Unless The Odd Couple works, CBS is looking at fulfilling 6 comedy slots with just TBBT, 2BG and Mom (assuming Mike and Molly takes midseason again), which would force them to premiere 3 new comedies. The last, and only time they did it last year with the big comedy expansion but I don't really see a big chance of that happening again. Sure they could put MM in the fall again but they would still need to premiere 2 new comedies and have no backup, which is even worse IMO.
If they consider this reduction, then the legitimate question becomes whether they prefer to concentrate the whole block on Thursdays with Bang boosting it all around and with solid players like 2 Broke Girls getting a favorable situation while forcing a new drama to kick off Mondays night or if they prefer to do two one hour blocks Monday and Thursdays at 8 while premiering a new drama Thursdays at 8. Normally I wouldn't really like the idea of a new drama self starting against the voice and gotham (female and male draws, respectively), but if they have another Scorpion in the wings, maybe it would be better off than thrown against the blacklist and scandal.
I think Mike and Molly will probably do double premiere and double finale on Mondays like you said, allowing it to premiere in the first Monday of January.
Great analysis Silvio! That is a great way to analysis which competition is hurting which show!
And just like that, we've got answers to both our tests ahah
If this is true, and it seems like it, then... Wow!
Grey's is a monumental beast, ratings be damned! Impacting the greatest show on broadcast while suffering minimal damage itself? Call me surprised. I will be damned.
Thursdays at 9 will turn into a fight of the gods come February. I feel sorry for the other networks.
I still don't think the blacklist is that much of a god as people are implicating. I expect numbers more in line with the CBS procedurals (NCIS, New Orleans, CM), even if that much, than with the big ABC dramas (Scandal, Murder).
I know. I think Scandal will win this thing.
I'm calling The Blacklist a God because is more or less the only non-ABC drama near their league (not in the same league but the closest we are getting so far). It will also be interesting to see if TBL can pull a Grey's Anatomy after the Super Bowl but I doubt it.
You know, I actually thought that with The Millers getting cut that CBS would be MORE eager to get some new comedy blood. They don't want to wake up in five years after TBBT has ended and find themselves in the position that NBC is in where they can't get any traction at all with new sitcoms.
Considering that they shouldn't need too many new dramas on the sked next year, three new sitcoms in the fall is very likely to me (hell, maybe four if Odd Couple works). I'd be shocked if CBS went down to two sitcom hours next season. But then again, I was shocked that The Millers was axed this quickly, so who knows what CBS might do any more?
I get your point but the thing is that three new sitcoms entail a very hard scheduling proposition. Sure, one of them can lead out of Big Bang and the other one maybe could have some luck maaaybe leading out of 2 Broke Girls (which is already below a 2.0 itself), but what do you with the other one? Leads an hour by itself paired with Mom? Didn't work that well for the crazy ones I would say.
In addition, you say that they shouldn't need too many new dramas, but which dramas do they currently have? The three NCIS, Scorpion and Criminal Minds. I suppose you can add in Blue Bloods as a very decent Friday at 10 fixture. But that's basically it. POI, Elementary, H50, Good Wife, CSI are on its way out, it's a matter of one or two years, more than that would be very surprising. Stalker is obviously dead and while MS may do well at succeeding the good wife, it's hardly the drama successor they woudl need.
But I even dispute that idea that the blacklist is the only non ABC drama near their league.
IMO, just on the top of my head, strength wise, I would probably rank the broadcast dramas like this right now:
1. Scandal
2. Murder/ OUAT/ GA
5. NCIS/ Criminal Minds/ Gotham/ Scorpion
9.The Blacklist/ New Orleans
11. Chicago Fire
I mean, even in Spot's true formula, the blacklist only has a 0.2 lead over something lie chicago fire. I think it's clearly a 4th tier show in here but we shall see what happens in February. I certainly cannot imagine it being in the same tier of Scandal.
And in fairness, "CBS will do anything it takes to nurse The Millers to 88" was conventional wisdom amongst ratings geeks up until... Literally yesterday.
I don't agree with The Blacklist being so low. I think it should probably be at 5. Why do you have that low?
Sure, let a new sitcom lead off an hour. It's not the most preposterous of ideas, and I'd say that The Crazy Ones failure was more because of it being wedged between two very incompatible shows than because it was leading off the hour. All it takes is for CBS to find two good sitcom pilots for them to need three sitcom hours next season, and that can't be that hard, considering that I think most of their effort went to developing dramas this season.
And my point on the dramas was that CBS won't need 4 freshmen on the schedule next year, they've clearly restocked the syndication warehouse with NCIS:NO and Scorpion at least. Even if they premiere three new dramas, there's still no need for them to cut down on sitcom hours.
I think at this point CBS certainly need to find some new sitcom blood, more than they need new dramas. Heck, they don't even own any of their veteran sitcoms. Considering how strong their sitcoms were just two years ago, CBS really need to find a new potential sitcom hit while there are still decent anchors on their network. Even Mom would be a better lead in than anything that NBC of Fox could provide for a newbie.
I get your points, I truly do. But I still think that they need another very good year of drama before focusing too much on sitcoms. You talk about CBS's huge sitcom strength a few years ago and while that was indeed something, I am not sure it is replicable. Maybe I am too focused on this but I truly believe that sitcoms are in decline right now. I mean, from live action comedies, you have:
1. Big Bang
2. MF
3. Goldbergs, 2 Broke Girls, Blackish
4 . Men, The Middle
I would put Mom (and B99) on a slightly lower tier as much as I adore it once you account for the lead-in boost provided by Bang.
I also don't think it's a coincidence that only sitcoms have been cancelled so far this season. Sure, it's always the argument: were the shows themselves the problem or the fact that they are sitcoms, and we can never get a definitive answer, but I feel like audiences are majorly rejecting sitcoms.
But coming back to CBS situation,my problem is that, two years from now, POI, Good Wife and Elementary are most likely not to be back. LA would probably be weekend bound and god knows how much longer Blue Bloods can hang on Fridays at 10pm or for how many more years they can endure CM's always hard contract negotiations, not to mention the risk of a Scorpion collapse. That's a lot of issues there. Sure their sitcoms situation is also not pretty but I take two (or three) big differences from the two:
- For every successful sitcom they develop, a second one is still needed.
- Most CBS sitcoms are not owned by them and that's unlikely to change out of the blue unless they have the double luck of having an incredible sitcom development season and most of them being owned by them, which is unlikely. This means that when first run ratings disappoint, they don't even have the other revenues' stream to make up for it (although still enjoying from lower licensee fee of course). Because of this, and this makes a somehow third difference though related with this one, they are not suitable for syndication night farms (Sunday and Friday) severely limiting CBS's scheduling possibilities.
The second argument is the main one for me to feel that while sitcoms were rating much better than dramas, CBS was happy to stick with them. But the situation is much different now.
Last year I would definitely have put it there, but its ratings this fall (sans for the premiere) have been disappointing.
The reason I put it this low is because I think the voice lead-in simply accounts for a lot more than people give it credit for. Looking at last year's ratings: it averaged a 2.43 in the 3 voice-less episodes and a 2.77 in the episodes after that when the voice returned. That's a 12% drop sans the voice. I think the drop would be a bit lower now since in theory more people are settled in with the show and the lead-in effect should be a tad lower but I still wouldn't drop it too much. Say 10% for good measure. The Blacklist has settled in a mix of 2.4/2.5 for the last month, so say 2.45. Take away 10% and it's about 2.20. That's lower than most episodes from NCIS, Criminal Minds, Gotham and Scorpion and particularly the last two have attenuating circumstances that make me judge their ratings harsher (Gotham has to self start a night and is in decaying network, while having to go up against the voice | Scorpion has to grow all the way up from the freaking millers while going up against the strongest hours of the voice and dwts). For the record, New Orleans also has comparable ratings with 5 but I also take it down a notch due to the lead-in (particularly lead-in compatibility)
Apartment 23 was also pulled, it didn't get to complete its order.
Smash technically did but when a show is airing on Saturdays to me that's effectively the equivalent of being pulled.
It was conventional wisdom but most of us were feeling genuine doubts about it with the millers most recent ratings. I was still calling the show a likely renewal, but not a certain one, and we were at least considering scenarios in which it wasn't carried to syndication. It was arrogance on the bear's part to dogmatically assume it was a certain renewal.
I agree that the Blacklist is nowhere near as strong as some posters seem to imply (especially that Alex person in TVBTN that continuously downplays Scandal's strength) but I just found it odd that you placed it so low given it's ratings.
But I agree with what you said overall.
Well, CBS' world of procedurals and multi-cams is coming to a collapse.
Predicting the networks from here and beyond, can we say that ABC is going to dominate? It won't be a domination like Idol-fueled FOX, but CBS has become a syndication farm fullof aging dramas and one comedy hit, NBC is a watered-down version of that dominant FOX, will win this season boosted by Voice and football but won't develop anything new that is here to stay and lol FOX.
ABC has the best depth among them, distinction that belonged to CBS before all their solid players started to collapse and they've come empty in some departments (dramas last season, comedies this season), if they could only fix tuesdays and sundays from 9-11 PM (maybe giving up because this hours belong to cable).
Yes, I'm always amused how people make leap from The Blacklist not depending on The Voice as much as Revolution did (and certainly not completely dependent on it like Smash and Go On were) to assuming it's completely lead-in independent. Yes, The Blacklist ratings being 10% higher than it would be w/o The Voice seems just about right.
But, when doing your rankings, keep in mind those 10 PM dramas are usually most heavily DVRed, and often have C3 A18-49 ratings few ticks above their Live+SD ratigns. In other words, no way Murder and Grey's are in the same tier. Already in Live+SD, Murder is way ahead, and gap is surely even wider in C3.
CBS isn't in so terrible state. Next fall:
Mon: 2BG / Mike and Molly (first 5 weeks TBBT x 2) / new drama (or Scorpion) / NCIS: LA
Tue: NCIS / NCIS: NO / PoI (or new drama)
Wed: Survivor / CM / new drama (or CSI: Cyber)
Thu - November: TBBT / new comedy / Mom / new comedy (or The Odd Couple) / Scorpion (or new drama)
Fri: Undercover Boss (or TAR) / H50 (or PoI) / Blue Bloods
Sun: 60 Minutes / Madam (or CSI) / The Good Wife / Elementary
Being a successful syndication farm involves getting good first-run ratings too. No-one wants to pay much for unsuccessful shows.
It's funny that you take this news as a sign that CBS is becoming a full syndication farm. I thought the millers was perhaps the most interesting decision of the entire season of any network as it would represent a stance from its network: either CBS would accept that it would really become a syndication farm (renewing The Millers) or they would try to find a way out of it and continue the success of this year's freshman class by developing new program that actually does well in first run ratings (cancelling the Millers).
The chose option number 2, so to me that means they are still more invested in their primetime lineup that just for syndication. Clearly, syndication is the strategy that they found to ensure Sundays and Fridays are profitable and there is nothing wrong with that (the same way ABC air a lot of reality on Fridays or NBC has tried co-productions there), but if they stick with those two days, and that seems to be the case, they still aren't a syndication farm IMO.
I agree.
My ranking is just in terms of show's strength in this case, not actual attractiveness for advertisers (which is where C3 would come in). Otherwise I would have to rank the blacklist higher than where it is in these rankings.
In terms of pure strength, I think both shows are roughly the same and if not, I would actually give the edge to Grey's. Spot's true formula says 2.65 TRUE for Murder and 2.57 TRUE for GA. But I think this formula doesn't properly account for the ridiculously perfect situation that Murder has. I mean that show has the most possible highest rated and compatible drama there is and it has literally no competition (it pulls almost the triple of either Elementary or Parenthood), while GA has to self start and go up against Big Bang. I think both have about the same strength, though of course this is always a more subjective argument than pure ratings strength.
Yeah, I get it now.
Yes, you're right, if Murder and Grey's would swap slots (theoretically, it's never gonna happen), ratings would probably swap too.
I don't know there's anywhere other than Thursdays CBS could put it to ride out this season, because all the other options would probably affect Elementary's ratings on an exponential level at this point. Now, next season, when you can make new promises to advertisers...
Which I don't get, because this is a good show, and certainly better than Sherlock, even after you factor out how much the fanbase hypes it up.
I don't see how Mom can anchor a comedy hour. I love the show and before the season I thought it could be groomed into anchor status after some big bang exposure but now it seems unlikely.
Also, if Scorpion is doing well enough to warrant a renewal by season's end as everything is indicating, I don't see why it would need a downgrade to Thursdays at 10.
Honestly, and I know people hate this idea, but I would like a comedy contraction yet again.
How come Bad Judge, Selfie or Marry Me... were anchoring comedy blocks? Because beggars can't be choosers. It seems you're living in the past when CBS wasn't among (comedy) beggars. If Mom will be CBS 3rd strongest comedy at season end, then it will be anchor comes next fall. That's not what CBS hopes for, but they would have no other choice - most certainly they won't contract to 2 blocks with 4 renewed comedies, and maybe 5 (The Odd Couple).
If CBS will have again some young skewing rookie drama (CBS-young, 30%), they might decide to repeat successful recipe from this season: their two strongest comedies (TBBT and TBBT repeats) leading into new Monday drama 9 PM. And for various reasons, they might not do so. Only thing I'm sure there will be new drama at either Mon 9 PM, either Thu PM, but not both. Plus 1 or 2 at Tue 8 PM and/or Wed 9PM.
Yup. The narrative went from "they're nursing this thing to 88" to "how are they gonna nurse this thing to 88?" to "what if they don't nurse this thing to 88?" to "oh, it's been cancelled mid-season."
Of course, they might just throw (in-house production) The Odd Couple in at 8:30, watch as it retains 55% of TBBT, and we do it all over again...
Mindy's audience is probably more inclined towards streaming than just about any show on broadcast right now. So I suspect it'll be the big streaming players - if not Netflix then maybe Amazon - that would have the most reason to be in the Mindy syndie business.
I legitimately think that they should try the odd couple after TBBT because Mom will have half a season of exposure after TBBT and so far it has not shown particularly encouraging signs of boom potential. And then they have Mike and Molly, which wouldn't really make sense to put there, and 2 Broke Girls. I actually wouldn't mind 2 Broke Girls to get the exposure, though that would probably come 3 years too late (most of us argued it should have gotten it back in Season 2 instead of Men) but that show is needed to anchor Mondays and it's still probably too late for it anyway. That leaves them with the odd couple, and that has nothing to do with being CBS produced.
This being said, I think that if the show has horrible retention, since it's only after 13 episodes anyway and since the millers fiasco will still be pretty recent, they will cut their losses and try something else next fall, I doubt that one gets to continue if it is a fraud (I also doubt CBS will have enough big bang originals to prop it up for all of its 13 episodes). It also won't be needed for save face renewal since the dramas will do that just fine.
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