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Wednesday, November 12, 2014

NBC True Power Rankings, November 2014


After an unfortunate delay for some maintenance, the True Power Rankings have finally returned! As always, these rankings dive into the strength of series based on the last one-third of results this season, rounded up (which helps weed out inflated early ratings), in the timeslot-adjusted metric True and in A18-49 ratings. Also included: how the show is trending vs. last season (y2y), how much of the show's total viewership falls within the 18-49 demo (Skew), and, new this year, how much of the 18-49 audience is male (%Male). These last three numbers cover what is available for the full season rather than just the last third of results, but generally the age/gender skews don't change a lot from week to week.

These rankings include results through Sunday, November 9.
 
More November True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW



NBC ComediesTrueA18-49y2ySkew%Male
Oh, Come On.
1Marry Me1.181.4039%34%
2Bad Judge1.120.9030%34%
3About a Boy1.091.05-41%36%35%
4A to Z1.000.7535%34%

At least last year, NBC had a huge drama bomb so they could say it was possible to do worse than their comedy department. This time, every single NBC drama ranks pretty decisively ahead of every single NBC comedy, which is pretty embarrassing. I'm a bit surprised at how quickly NBC has bailed on these shows, with the Thursday pair gone after 13 and Marry Me getting only a small extension that will probably be used to get the network through The Voice's hiatus. Even Sean Saves the World was extended last year! But it's hard to argue from a ratings perspective. Time to start all over again.



NBC DramasTrueA18-49y2ySkew%Male
The Elites
1The Blacklist2.192.43-14%34%42%
2Chicago Fire1.971.80-11%33%35%
3Law and Order: SVU1.771.60-10%29%32%

The Blacklist has been fine but unspectacular as it prepares for a huge move to Thursday. Chicago Fire has done pretty well leading out of a comedy mess at 9/8c. And that Law and Order: SVU just won't go away. Right now, this could very well be another year of SVU being just too strong to cancel, in spite of the considerable expense.

NBC DramasTrueA18-49y2ySkew%Male
The Rest
4Chicago PD1.601.45-12%29%36%
5Parenthood1.571.20-5%39%32%
6Grimm1.531.30-17%33%41%
7The Mysteries of Laura1.421.2721%32%
8Constantine1.421.0040%50%

Been a bit disappointed with Chicago PD thus far, especially considering how CBS and ABC aren't doing much in the hour either. Chicago Fire started really gaining momentum in the second half of season one a couple years ago, and that's effectively about where we are now with PD (since season one was only 15 eps). Maybe being another Fire-sized player just isn't in the cards, but it still seems renewal-worthy. Let's see if this week's cross-over gets it going.

For all of the "Women Crush Wednesday" branding, The Mysteries of Laura has been close to a Revolution-sized show in the demo. It probably deserved the back nine, but normally NBC would do what they did with Revolution: thank it for its services and politely cancel at season's end. This year, that may not happen, because NBC's had a pretty terrible start to the season with new series. So far, there are no Blacklist/Chicago PD slam dunks like last year. So while Laura's renewal may end up being motivated by face-saving, it's still in the mix at this early juncture.

If Laura can't be counted out, then Constantine probably shouldn't be either, as its third episode finally put it ahead of the Dracula pace. NBC couldn't have done better by this show compatibility-wise than Grimm, but Constantine still skews markedly younger and more male than its lead-in. I don't think its chances are good, but it has a demographic profile that may work in its favor if it can actually find a way to stabilize in the very low 1's.



NBC UnscriptedTrueA18-49y2ySkew%Male
1The Voice Mon Fall3.393.53-15%38%37%
2The Voice Tue Fall2.862.83-14%36%38%
3Dateline Fri1.591.27-1%24%37%
4The Biggest Loser1.371.17-34%36%35%

Just as the Dancing with the Stars comeback has slowed a bit this fall, so too has the downfall of The Voice. It's probably going to be down more than average, but it's not looking like the catastrophic drop that seemed possible when it premiered at 3.9. (Though it is worth noting that number adjusted up to 4.1 after the Nielsen glitch was corrected, so even that rating wasn't as bad as it seemed.)

We still don't know what The Blacklist's Thursday lead-in will be. As rough as it's been for The Biggest Loser, it's still doing about as well as anything the network could reasonably put in the hour, but there's no indication of a second cycle this season. With Laura seemingly locking down the slot where I thought Parks and Recreation would end up (Wednesday 8/7c), will NBC really force Blacklist to self-start out of a Parks-led comedy hour?

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