CW True Power Rankings, November 2014

After an unfortunate delay for some maintenance, the True Power Rankings have finally returned! As always, these rankings dive into the strength of series based on the last one-third of results this season, rounded up (which helps weed out inflated early ratings), in the timeslot-adjusted metric True and in A18-49 ratings. Also included: how the show is trending vs. last season (y2y), how much of the show's total viewership falls within the 18-49 demo (Skew), and, new this year, how much of the 18-49 audience is male (%Male). These last three numbers cover what is available for the full season rather than just the last third of results, but generally the age/gender skews don't change a lot from week to week.

These rankings include results through Sunday, November 9.
 
More November True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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The CW		True	A18-49	y2y	Skew	%Male
Zoom.
1	The Flash	1.47	1.45		51%	60%

The Flash needs to average just a 0.90 the rest of the season (assuming a 1.70 league average, which might be optimistic, plus the 23-episode order that Arrow has always gotten) to become the biggest historical-adjusted scripted series in the history of the CW. In other words: this is going to be the biggest historical-adjusted scripted series in the history of the CW. It's just a matter of by how much. If it hits eighteen more 1.4 ratings, that'll put it at a 85 A18-49+ - a very renewable show by big four standards and nearly forty percent ahead of the previous CW Plus record. That probably won't happen. But even a more pessimistic 1.1 average over the next eighteen would put it at about a 71, still double digits ahead of season one The Vampire Diaries' 61 (and about on par with the fall 2007 Top Model cycle (72) that holds the record overall). It's a legitimate question whether the CW will actually last long enough as a network for this show to drop to cancellation-worthy levels.

The CW		True	A18-49	y2y	Skew	%Male
The Safe Tier
2	Arrow	1.08	1.05	+2%	47%	59%
3	The Vampire Diaries	0.83	0.80	-29%	62%	33%
4	Supernatural	0.68	0.85	-14%	56%	47%
5	The Originals	0.61	0.55	-37%	62%	39%
6	Whose Line Is It Anyway?	0.57	0.50	-6%	48%	58%

Not a lot of excitement here except the general observation that the ratings strength is becoming more and more male. The Originals has done a passable job on Monday, and The Vampire Diaries is still fairly high in the rankings, but Arrow has pulled way ahead of them in these rankings. TVD's five-year streak as the network's biggest 18-49 performer is definitely coming to an end.

The True formula hates Supernatural, docking it over a tenth for leading out of Flash. I don't really think it should be this low; it's one of those shows like Nashville and Revenge that is likely more resilient than this one global formula can account for. These shows tend to grade better True-wise in worse situations, and SPN has got a great one right now. Still... dropping more than league average year-to-year with the biggest lead-in in network history isn't exactly a positive. It's clearly going to vacate this hour in favor of a newbie, but will it be within this season or next fall? If it's not within this season, consider that more of a no-confidence vote in the midseason dramas.

The CW		True	A18-49	y2y	Skew	%Male
The Unsafe Tier
7	Reign	0.52	0.45	-35%	46%	38%
8	The 100	0.52	0.50	-32%	41%	55%
9	Jane the Virgin	0.47	0.40		48%	31%
10	America's Next Top Model	0.47	0.33	-16%	46%	25%

Reign season two might actually be shaping up a bit like Reign season one; after an unimpressive start, it's settled in over the course of the fall and may well have inched ahead of the other bubblers. The comparison with The 100 is kinda like the one with The Tomorrow People last year, in that Reign gets a bit of an assist here for its significant skew incompatibility with TVD. (The 100 is less compatible with Arrow than TTP was, but in terms of sheer lead-in volume, Arrow is stronger and TVD a lot weaker than last fall.) Reign has a couple other things in its favor: it's got two full seasons, and it's from the CBS studio that can't seem to earn its presence on the schedule on merit. As long as Reign is on par with the other shows in this tier, I would tend to give it the best shot at survival.

Beyond that, it's probably too early to say much about shows like The 100 and Jane the Virgin. One might think that a limited series like The 100 would be expected to flex a little more muscle in first-run than this, but we have to see the comparison with whatever replaces it at midseason. And the midseason scheduling will tell us something about Jane the Virgin; if it manages to keep its Monday 9/8c slot all season, that means the network likes its modest ratings better than the potential of a second midseason newbie. If it plays out the end of its order on Friday, that's more troublesome.