Thursday #2 brings the fall's only case of series premieres competing head-to-head, with NBC's comedy block of
Bad Judge and
A to Z dueling with Fox's limited mystery series
Gracepoint. These shows may have been held a week to avoid an inflated premiere of
Scandal, but they also may have been simple "hide the weenie" situations. Both hours will have pretty low-rated veteran lead-ins from
The Biggest Loser and
Bones, so actual success is going to require bringing in some outside interest.
Scandal and
Thursday Night Football are not exactly soft opponents, but maybe there's an entertainment programming audience available that isn't interested in
Scandal. What's the verdict on
Bad Judge,
A to Z and
Gracepoint? That's
The Question for Thursday, October 2, 2014.
Highest Rating Among Bad Judge, A to Z and Gracepoint Over/Under: 1.45.
TO CLARIFY: "Over" wins if ANY of Bad Judge, A to Z OR Gracepoint goes over the line, while "under" wins if NONE go over.
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.
47 comments:
Under. Before the season started, I maybe could have seen Gracepoint eking out a 1.5, but not now that the whole network has turned into a disaster zone.
Over
Under... Bad Judge and Gracepoint (1.3), A to Z (1.1)
Under
(Damn, you know it's bad when you are predicting that not 1 out of 3 premieres breaks a 1.5)
Over
Just because line is so depressive, not because I give it a thought.
I think that Gracepoint will either flop hard or be a suprise hit*. I don't see the Bones lead in having any affect. Bad Judge looks awful and has a bad lead in. A to Z actually looks good, but I feel a lot of interest here is going to be watching Scandal. Anyways, NBC is a no. FOX is a maybe. I remeber when they had this type of spread at a 2.0 for Resurrection and Cosmos and they both did. So I will just take a leap of faith for Gracepoint. Over!
*Hit for FOX. I doubt it will get the Plus to be labled as a hit by Spot
Over
... Under.
If any of these shows are going to clear this Line, it feels like it'd be Bad Judge: it'll have The Biggest Loser as a lead-in (something stronger than last year's Welcome to the Family), it's the only comedy in that half-hour, and it only has 30 minutes to bleed out. And even reviled Manhattan Love Story beat this Line. Meanwhile A to Z is incompatible with Judge and will continue to bleed viewers itself. As for Gracepoint...good luck. Fox put its drama promotional money in Gotham; if the best it could offer is a Bones lead-in and a delayed start to dodge Scandal's premiere that's not promising.
Over.
Unofficial Question Time: The CW starts its season tonight with The Vampire Diaries and Reign. Both started the season in respectable fashion, and Reign in particular looked like it was catching some heat in January. But The Vampire Diaries finally sunk below 1.x on Halloween and ended up staying there from March to the end. And Reign ended the season on a ratings low note. Now both female-skewing dramas are asked to face strong competition from Grey's Anatomy and Scandal, respectively. Diaries probably gets a 1 in front of the decimal point again (I feel like after The Flash it's getting the most attention from The CW's marketing department) but I see the sophomore lead-out starting weak and "reigns" on The CW's kickoff parade.
The Vampire Diaries PLUS Reign Over/Under: 1.65.
I feel like someone's gonna get a 1.5. Over.
Under on the unofficial question, I think TVD is in big trouble now.
Bones should gain some audience off Greys this week and I think Gracepoint will have high retention out of Bones. Enough to gain a 1.5? That is tough.
If Undateable could garner a 1.3 in low viewership (but low competition) summer, Bad Judge could manage a 1.5 surely? Big ask.
I don't expect both to get over the line, but surely one must?
Over
I made the comment about HIMYM on the article. As for Big Bang, some of those adjustments were probably about the show bleeding into the 8:30 half-hour for a minute or two.
Thx for the link. It is a very bizarre phenomenon. I'll place my bets that is has something to do with how post live same day viewing numbers are captured for ABC shows Historically, ABC has huge DVR playback for most of their serialized dramas, placing nearly 50% or ABC programs in the top 10 Live+7 demo results, more than any other network. Interestingly, The Big Bang Theory and The Blacklist have usually ranked as number one and two on this same list when DVR results are added to their already big same day ratings. Probably just some silly anomaly this year impacting only ABC. Not sure what might have changed from last season to the present. My gosh, in my vivid imagination, it makes me wonder if many of ABC's shows were possibly shortchanged last year. That would be quite the controversy for Nielsen if that were the unlikely case, causing some serious damage to their reputation and the entire ratings system. Nielsen bashers would revel in such a controversy.
Over. Just because the line says and if any went over 1.45 and I'm betting Gracepoint will do a 1.5 (Even though the show isn't getting a lot of promotion and the timeslot is tough against beast Scandal). Bad Judge looks bad to me (and it's going to have a lead in under a 1.5, I doubt that can build over TBL ratings). A to Z is going to do a tenth lower than Bad Judge in my opinion, this pairing looks a lot like the Selfie/MLS.
...and deepening every night. When was the last time Nashville adjusted up? Is Nashville now stalking Stalker?
The most ridiculous thing is that Blacklish adjusted up with a minute overrun of higher rated Modern Family.
I really want to say that at least one will go over 1.5, but really, which one possibly can?
Bad Judge: 1.3
A to Z: 1.2
Gracepoint: 1.4
Under
Agreed, I just don't know which one.
over just because i'm in an optimistic mood today
Nielsen is pleading the 5th so far. If they know what's up, they aren't going to explain anytime soon.
Over
FOX can at least pull it for a premiere out of curiosity and Bad Judge might pull a 1.5, but overall, I don't see a bright future for all three.
Under at 1.6 (1.0 TVD, 0.6 for Reign).
Under
Over.
Over. I have ~some~ faith in Bad Judge, afterall.
But I won't be surprised if all three bomb right out of the gate...
Over.
Basically because I WANT that A to Z does well.
It also seems to be an attempt for prestige, but is hovering in the low 60s on Metacitic.
Unlike Shonda Thursdays, it appears that Fear-Mongering Wednesdays is not a viable strategy for CBS. Minds was about as solid as I expected (equal to the finale, down slightly from last year's premiere), but Stalker was actually weaker than I expected (thought it would be a 2.4 and therefore very close to the line, instead of actually dropping seven tenths from Minds). Although, as anyone who saw my one and only tweet about the show could guess, I am quite grateful for that.
Maybe the bear has a point about Black-ish, as he seemed skeptical that it wouldn't get on the Super Fun Night track, which it is only just ahead of after the adjustment.
Disappointing that Laura had to steal that tenth from Chicano PD, if only because I want Laura to burn in hell sooner rather than later.
A 1.1 is still Dead Band Society levels, yes?
Actually, Selfie/MLS didn't clear the line, which was 3.15. Also, yeah, Gracepoint is not decently reviewed, regardless of whether the critic's seen Broadchurch. It seems that everyone agrees it's already the post-pilot version of The Killing, which makes sense when you think about American TV's struggles w/ subtlety and the general idea that a murder mystery serial is basically an excuse to spend an entire season telling a story w/ barely enough content for one episode.
Over. Gracepoint 1.5
I just don't see how any of these get over the line w/ such milquetoast ad campaigns (including one of the worst photoshops this commenter can remember). In fact, I can't remember any real ads for A To Z at all, despite the fact that there seems to be a degree of what I'll call "second tier critical support" (i.e. the kind that says "We can see this becoming good if they focus on these components, and because we like the cast"). Even though Spot has placed it low, I have to keep my pessimist streak going. Under.
He said that Selfie and MLS cleared THIS line, as in, were both over 1.45.
Over. Even though individually I can't see any getting over the line, I have three shots to succeed.
I was repulsed by its preview clips and had no desire to watch or review.
Over
Under. Prospects low for all 3 new shows.
Oh, yeah. That's on me for not reading close enough.
But still, ABC Tuesdays is not NBC Thursdays or Fox Thursday. And neither Welcome To The Family nor Sean Saves The World (latter more relevant based on timeslots) cleared this line last year, so it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility.
Under: Gracepoint 1.3, Bad Judge 1.4, A to Z 1.1
Under. With all the sports and Shonda, there's not enough scatter audience to go around.
Over- that is always the safe bet when I only need 1 of 3 to slightly exceed expectations
over. one of them's bound to go over
under
Even with the upwards adjustment Blackish still looks a lot weaker than last week. I see it settling around a 2.1/2.2 which with that Modern lead-in probably puts it near the bubble for being renewed.
The Goldbergs is impressing me big time.
This really is one of those cases in which it all depends on how it holds moving forward. Some comedies have managed to get back to levels even higher than the premieres. Not often but it happens. Suburgatory did it in its inaugural season for instance. Another 20% drop and it's probably dunzo but I have no clue whether it will take said drop or not.
Well I'm not that invested in this game anyway.
I pretty much thought it would be under, but I wanted to will the show into success.
I remember the time when I wanted to prompt such things. Then, sometime around Last Resort, a show that more people should've watched, I decided that if there was a deity who determined the fates of my favorite shows, then my blustering to him was almost certainly hurting my cause rather than helping it.
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