The Question, Monday 10/13/14: Will Jane the Virgin's Ratings Be Plain?

The CW's second and final new fall drama rolls out tonight as Jane the Virgin hits the airwaves after The Originals. Though it has garnered quite a few positive reviews, the pros pretty much stop there. Despite the reviews, the premise is pretty ridiculous. It feels like a holdover from the network's long-gone days of laser focusing on the W18-34 audience. It will have a passable-sized but seemingly incompatible lead-in from The Originals. And The Voice, Scorpion, Sleepy Hollow and Dancing with the Stars are a pretty tough group of competitors for live viewing. This feels like an uphill battle. Will Jane the Virgin's ratings be plain? That's The Question for Monday, October 13, 2014.

Comparable CW Series Premieres

0.5 (Emily Owens M.D., 10/16/12) (0.6 Hart of Dixie lead-in) 0.6 (The Carrie Diaries, 1/14/13) 0.3 (Cult, 2/19/13) (0.3 Hart of Dixie lead-in) 0.8 (Reign, 10/17/13) (1.3 The Vampire Diaries lead-in) 0.4 (Star-Crossed, 2/17/14)

The CW actually put most of its newbies in pretty good situations last season, so it's worth returning to 2012-13 to see just how low this network can go with lower-tier premieres. The best comparison for Jane is probably Emily Owens M.D., which launched out of Hart two autumns ago. And yet, I think Jane is in an even worse position, especially if The Originals drops from last week's 0.7. Emily at least seemed compatible with the lead-in, and its premiere only had to compete with a big four-simulcast debate.

So my pick is 0.4. I don't really feel comfortable going all the way up to 0.45, so I'm taking this out to the hundredths as a one-time deal. If it actually hits 0.4 exactly, we'll be at the mercy of the second number after the decimal.

Over/Under: 0.415.

TO CLARIFY: "Over" wins at 0.42 or higher. "Under" wins at 0.41 or lower.

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