| NBC Late October Friday Launches |
| 2.1 (Grimm season 1, 10/28/11) 1.5 (Mockingbird Lane special, 10/26/12) 2.0 (Grimm season 2, 10/26/12) 1.8 (Grimm season 3, 10/25/13) 1.8 (Dracula, 10/25/13) |
It may be a pricier series, and it may be DC Comics. But I'm not sold that John Constantine has enough name recognition to produce a truly breakthrough kind of premiere on a Friday, especially with the World Series in the mix. (It wasn't for the 2012 and 2013 premieres.) I expect it to hold up better post-premiere than the horrible Dracula, but I think it will be a challenge to reproduce that show's 1.8 debut rating from a year ago.
Constantine Over/Under: 1.55.
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37 comments:
Under with 1.4.
Over, 1.6
Under. I'm going under, but just barely and it's a tough line. I'd be more comfortable at a 1.7, 1.8 and this is one I feel like I could totally be wrong about. I just feel like there is no buzz about the show - and what there is isn't very good - and the comic book to t.v. show market is saturated at the moment. And it's worrisome they retooled the concept almost immediately. And it's up against the World Series, with the teams currently tied. Erm. I still think 1.5 might be too low, but I gotta go with my gut and go under, despite the fact that often these genre shows bow big and slide from there.
One consideration for players to remember is that Mockingbird Lane aired in the pre-Grimm 8:00 hour and not the 10:00 hour. Just keep that in mind...
Grimm ended the season on a pretty weak note, so I don't know how much of its audience is going to re-find the show against the World Series. And while the other networks are surprisingly weaker this season at 10:00, adding Fox into the mix because of baseball is going to siphon off the potential viewers. When the only buzz I've heard about it from people I know are my out-of-demo parents, it doesn't inspire confidence.
Under.
Under. 1.1
It would need to improve on Grimm, which I expect to be at 1.5, based on where it was last Spring.
Over (1.6)
I feel that it would need to retain 100% of Grimm minimum.. which Dracula did manage, but I don't feel confident that this will. Under.
Grimm always rides a Halloween bounce. Last year Grimm/Dracula went 1.8/1.8, 1.6/1.3, 1.3/.9 for the first three episodes. Anyways, Grimm's "Friday before Halloween" episode's plus has been 89, 95, and 96. This makes me think Grimm will get around a 1.6. I doubt Constantine can get 100% retention of Grimm. I'd say maybe if it was only against 20/20 and Blue Bloods, but I think it will the World Series kills that idea. I say a 1.5
Under
Over
Going down under.
Under because of the world series
Constantine has received mixed reviews, its title doesn't draw as much as Dracula did and, of course, the World Series as competition all may quell interest a bit. And because this show will cater to the time-shifting crowd, I suspect there won't be as many to check it out on this Friday night -- they'd rather catch it this weekend.
Under
Over.
Not confident. Over - because before season I was optimistic about Constantine and expected good-for-Friday numbers from it. Not confident - because now I see I had no arguments for that optimism, all of that was speculation from my side.
I can see this actually doing pretty solid, but I don't think Grimm is still the Friday miracle it once was. Under at 1.5 from Grimm's 1.6.
Over
Under
The numbers point to under but this one has the variability to surprise.
Under
Comparing to Grimm's series premiere, I'd say there are more things going for Constantine than against. It is Game 3 vs Game 7, more or less established franchise vs almost complete unknown, and NBC of 2014 vs NBC of 2011. As for buzz, Constantine's facebook page has over 2 million likes, which is something I have never seen for a new show (both The Flash and Gotham had something around 1 million immediately before premieres and those were way above average). Against the show would be only airing at 10 vs airing at 9. The overall decline would put Grimm's 2.1 at about 1.5 today. I bet the positives outweigh the negatives and go with OVER
Under
just over at 1.6
Over! America loooooooves comic book shows! And the image of Constantine is animated on NBC's website! That's gotta add a few extra million viewers.
Over
Over
Well, if Shield is any indicator, they love them for the first two weeks, like them for a half a season, tolerate them for a while, and abandon them in season 2.
SHIELD's only marginally lower than at the end of season one. So I think your time frame is a little off, although the overall trajectory is good.
Spot pretty much said it all. You can't really hype Constantine the way you can The Flash, and I think the Keanu Reeves movie was probably an Ink Stain Adaptation in the eyes of the general public.
Under.
I'm looking more at share these days. Shield had a 6 or 7 share last Spring, and last Tuesday it had a 4 share.
Noted. Hadn't really thought about paying attention to that aspect of it, especially since I rarely see shares at all due to rarely reading TVBTN anymore.
That feels an awfully low line for a premiere with any kind of demo hype. If it falls below this then NBC should absolutely put Dateline here and throw their hands in the air.
Over.
Over. The line might be suckers bait, but I've long felt this will do well.
Over. 1.8 like dracula.
Actually, all the shares are in the Spot Vault. That's also how I pegged Grimm at 1.5 last night.
Well, I kinda don't look at the SpotVault either unless I want to pull up specific ratings histories. And I certainly don't pay attention to the shares when I do. Probably not all that wise on my part.
I did. What really hurts is when a bad adaptation is the only adaptation for years. Wonder Woman is still campy '70s Lynda Carter. Batman needed big movie stars to make a serious reboot in '89.
Yeah, that can kinda be an issue. Although it's not exactly like the David E. Kelley attempt was setting up to be any better.[*] And I have a feeling Amazon was problematic, too, hence why they kept shutting it down.
[*he said, having never watched the leaked pilot]
All I remember about Wonder Woman is Lynda Carter constantly lasso-ing people, and the cartoon where she was sitting in midair piloting an invisible plane.
I mostly just remember the time she punched a TV screen in Justice League.[*]
[*ok, so we all know me too well to know that's not true, but that scene's still funny anyway]
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