- FINALS UPDATE: CBS got some more help for NCIS (2.6) and Person of Interest (1.7), each now up two tenths from last week. The Flash (1.4) cut its week-to-week drop to 0.1, but Agents of SHIELD (1.7) didn't get its usual finals uptick. On NBC, The Voice (2.9) was up but Marry Me (1.5) lost another precious tenth.
- The World Series got a 3.5, a series high but a simply miserable number for a Game 6 historically speaking. (Recent Game 6's, even one that didn't end the series like in 2011, took well over a point jump from Game 5. This was up 0.2...)
- ABC pre-empted its low-rated comedy hour in favor of special The Great Halloween Fright Fight (1.1), presumably a spin-off of its The Great Christmas Light Fight series. It was an improvement on the usual comedy ratings, especially at 8:30 vs. Manhattan Love Story. And that may have helped Agents of SHIELD (1.7), which bounced back by a tick and may even be up two after finals. Forever (1.1) was down a tenth.
- NBC had a brutal Tuesday as The Voice (2.8) took a half-point drop at 8/7c. That helped further derail Marry Me (1.6), About a Boy (1.2) and even Chicago Fire (1.7), all two tenths behind last week.
- On a second World Series Tuesday, the CW had a third straight two-tenth drop for The Flash (1.3) and a third straight one-tenth drop for Supernatural (0.8). CBS was steady as NCIS (2.5) increased for the first time all season and Person of Interest (1.6) also inched up.
- As for Fox, its 6th game of the World Series was a massive blowout and is thus only barely ahead of the Tuesday rating a week ago in prelims. But Fox at least got the winner they wanted; namely, the team down 3-2 survived, setting up a decisive Game 7 and a likely significant spike tonight.
FULL TABLE:
| Info | Show | Timeslot | True | |||||||
| A18-49 | Skew | Last | LeLa | Rank | y2y | TLa | Ty2y | |||
| The Great Halloween Fright Fight | 1.1 | 37% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1/1 | n/a | +22% | -8% | 1.4 |
| Agents of SHIELD | 1.7 | 49% | +6% | +0.1 | +0.4 | 2/6 | n/a | +10% | +10% | 1.9 |
| Forever | 1.1 | 28% | -8% | -0.1 | +0.1 | 6/7 | n/a | -4% | +16% | 1.3 |
| ABC: | +8% | +5% | ||||||||
| NCIS | 2.6 | 19% | +8% | +0.2 | n/a | 3/6 | -13% | +8% | -15% | 2.8 |
| NCIS: New Orleans | 2.3 | 18% | -4% | -0.1 | +0.2 | 3/6 | n/a | -2% | -13% | 2.1 |
| Person of Interest | 1.7 | 22% | +13% | +0.2 | -0.1 | 3/6 | -11% | +10% | -8% | 1.6 |
| CBS: | +5% | -13% | ||||||||
| The Voice Tue | 2.9 | 32% | -12% | -0.4 | n/a | 5/6 | -19% | -11% | +57% | 3.0 |
| Marry Me | 1.5 | 38% | -17% | -0.3 | -0.4 | 3/3 | n/a | -17% | -57% | 1.3 |
| About a Boy | 1.2 | 37% | -14% | -0.2 | -0.3 | 3/3 | n/a | -14% | -68% | 1.3 |
| Chicago Fire | 1.7 | 30% | -11% | -0.2 | -0.2 | 6/6 | n/a | -11% | -53% | 1.8 |
| NBC: | -12% | -34% | ||||||||
| World Series | 3.5 | 33% | +6% | +0.2 | n/a | 1/6 | -39% | +1% | +130% | 3.7 |
| Fox: | +1% | +130% | ||||||||
| The Flash | 1.4 | 50% | -7% | -0.1 | n/a | 4/4 | n/a | -7% | +40% | 1.4 |
| Supernatural | 0.8 | 53% | -11% | -0.1 | -0.1 | 4/4 | -27% | -11% | -24% | 0.7 |
| CW: | -8% | +7% | ||||||||
| Big5: | -1% | +8% | ||||||||
KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
More Spotted Ratings in the Index.
68 comments:
NBC down 34% year to year is absolutely horrendous. The comedies will both be cancelled this year.I am soo sad about About a Boy, I really adore that show.
Elsewhere, I am happy that Shield is up. The Flash continues to hold up quite nicely. Supernatural is under-performing though, but I will attribute it to the world series until I see it next week. It got a massive lead-in upgrade so it shouldn't be falling more than the league average which it currently is.
CBS did well but they are still down 15% year to year. But at least they won the night even with The Voice fueled NBC.
On ABC, Shield is hanging on quite well. I hope it adjusts up.
Good for Agents of Shield. It really needed an uptick. Okay performance from Halloween Fright Fight. It literally cost them almost nothing to make. Prize was only $50,000. The Flash is holding up pretty well. Better than Shield and Gotham did among comparable titles.
Flash / Supernatural, no worries. Both will raise next week with no baseball in the picture, thus making people now writing greatly exaggerated reports of their death look really funny.
We'll see after Spot calculates True, but it seems Marry Me / About A Boy continue to track same in True as Thursday block. I mean, when we compare corresponding episodes - Tuesday block premiered week later than Thursday one. That's just pathetic, gven Bad Judge / A to Z are dangerously close to pull-me-know zone in row numbers (NBC can always put The Blacklist repeats on Thursday 9 PM in January, or already in December).
S.H.I.E.L.D. up after Manhattan Love Story departed to bad romcom sitcoms heaven. Might be just a coincidence, but I doubt.
I think Shield is hurting Supernatural. Supernatural's only drama competition last year was very different NCIS: LA. Shield is a male leaning genre drama. Kinda like how it got hit hard its second year on Friday when Grimm showed up
That's quite possible I admit. But The Flash is such a massive lead-in upgrade that should at least make up for that I would say. Like I said, I am giving it a pass for now due to the World Series, we shall see how it goes next week.
Now I'm starting to warm to the idea of Beyond the Tank going to Tuesdays at 8:00 rather than Selfie/Fresh off the Boat or a new drama. It would do a few ticks better than Halloween Fight Fright, it's a less unknown quantity than a new midseason show, and it's a cheaper way to patch up the hour. Beyond the Tank/SHIELD/The Whispers would be the best flow ABC's had on the night in the past few seasons.
Elsewhere, most everything on NBC and The CW should uptick next week once Fox reignites its dumpster fire. I do wish NBC would at least sample A to Z after Marry Me; it'd be a compatible romcom hour, and since I don't think the network's going to move Marry unless it's for a new show A to Z would at least get a raw-numbers-stronger lead-in.
Interesting that SHIELD had a higher 18-34 demo rating last night than The Flash. Wouldn't The World Series typically have a greater impact on the 9pm (male skewing) shows? I have watched Supernatural from season 1 to the current one but rarely live. It's starting to feel just a little tedious watching it now but that might just be me--every plot feels like a variation on a previous plots. Is that 2.8 a series low for The Voice? I don't follow it and never have but I thought someone on this forum not too long ago made the comment that The Voice has never yet fallen below 3.0.
Not for a 10 year show I don't think. In besides I think they are having a superhero night. Watch Flash in go straight to AOS in skip SPN. The only ones watching SPN is it's core. I can't make the call if AOS is hurting it yet till baseball is over. In I surely hope it was just baseball doing the damage. Interesting to see what happens to Flash/SPN in the coming weeks.
SPN has a bad pacing problem now since it lost the good writers. They have good ideas still, but have a hard time executing them.
The Voice fell into the mid-2's during the last Spring cycle for its results shows and hit a 2.5 on May 5.
FOX dumpster fire. Thanks for my first good laugh of the day. Those "bought and paid for" 13 Mulaney episodes already in the can and the $50 million squandered on Utopia should help to keep the fire raging, along with the rest of their mostly combustible lineup.
That for The Voice is just weird. Taylor Swift is still on the show and I don't think it shares an audience with Baseball. Maybe the talent just sucks this year (can't say if if does because I don't watch the show anymore)
And let's not forget that Fox has to detonate the Glee megabomb at some point this season. Even if it's over the summer it's going to be beaten by repeats somewhere...
Do we know the blast radius of that megabomb yet? (By which I mean the number of episodes...)
13, according to TV Line. And it could be self-contained in the 2015 summer season (May 21-September 21/28).
Ahah this is funny but the truth is that FOX is really in a horrible slate.
I've been arguing for that Tuesday for a while. But I still think ABC is planning on replacing TGIF instead (and the continued lack of news for a Cristela backorder is more indication in that sense) since they are announcing this as a companion series for Shark Tank.
That's unfortunate for 20/20, then, if it means ABC goes 20/20|Shark Tank|Beyond the Tank since it'd have to face Dateline NBC again. Of course Beyond could just replace the sitcoms and give Tank essentially itself as a lead-in. But then that just feels awkward to see a "What Happened Next..." type of show before said show.
If Beyond goes on Tuesdays, then "companion" to Paul Lee means "spinoff."
I agree with everything you've said about Fridays. It would feel very "unflowy" to have Beyond the Tank lead off the night but I am convinced that putting 20/20 against Dateline and remove Tank's support entirely would lead to overall worse results for the night for ABC. There is also another option though that we are not considering that would be Shark Tank + Beyond the Tank + 20/20. Shark Tank would be down but it would surely improve on the comedies more than Beyond the Tank would loose from Shark Tank (since it would still have Shark Tank as lead-in) and 20/20 would still have its support and avoid Dateline.
This option would have a very big advantage which would be to test Beyond the Tank as an anchor and, if it worked, free up Shark Tank to go to a weeknight (aka Tuesdays) next year, while keeping TGIF in reserve and ready to come back to 8pm next fall if all worked out.
I am not sure if I am arguing for this or not, I am just saying it is worth considering. I still prefer Beyond the Tank going to Tuesdays directly if only because I hate all the other options of stuff that could land there and I think ABC needs to get dead serious about helping out Shield.
I really don't understand why you insist on Beyond the Tank at 10 PM. That's simply wrong, it's proper place is at 8 PM.
Current situation is:
1. Weak, incompatible multicam leading into Shark Tank = bad.
2. Shark Tank leading into 20/20 = not perfect, but OK.
3. 20/20 leading into local news = perfect.
With Beyond the Tank at 8 PM, ABC would fix problem "1", without fixing what's not broken. Unless Beyond the Tank flops, but we'll cross that bridge...
With your solution, problem "1" wouldn't be fixed, while "3" would be broken. For what? For 10% or 20% better Beyond the Tank ratings?
So I think you're missing the point here, as you're kinda fixated on Beyond the Tank ratings. For no reason, because I think ABC's goal here is to provide Shark Tank with better and/or more compatible lead-in, so it would be even bigger megahit. And I agree with them on it.
Does anyone know why The CW isn't original next week? I get the networks have election coverage, but the CW never does that. They usually counter program Debates and State of Union Addresses.
Ouch to Marry Me. No backorder needed. I saw to with their two best newbies in the spring. Pair the rest of About a Boy with Parks and Recreation
Cancel Marry Me, put whatever you have in the bench by february, NBC, Kimmy Schmidt, Mr Robinson, Mission Control, One Big Happy, Parks and Rec (lol), Comm... oh wait.
Mission Control
October 15th, I've been really off to backstage news this season.
...Undateable and Welcome to Sweden (I'll pee my pants with laughter if that happens).
Lol.
I want to see Parks and Rec series finale after The Voice, do it NBC!
I'd love to see the half-hours for the World Series. The damage seems to have been done between 8:45 and 9:15 and the entire game after that was garbage time. Which leaves me to have two thoughts:
1) I'd not have been surprised by 100% retention for NCIS NO this week, given that - I could absolutely see there being an NCIS/baseball crossover audience - but it happened last week instead. Huh.
2) In terms of the ratings dynamic, this feels to me much more like a Game 5 in a tied series. The 2011 Game 6 is actually a really good opposing example - no team had a two-run lead through six innings, before the Rangers pulled off what looked like a series-clinching three-run seventh. They were one strike away from winning the series on two separate occasions! I'd lump it in with the comparators from 4-2 series wins given that dynamic, to be honest. (The actual Game 7 only went up 14% from Game 6, although it was: a) on Friday, b) not nearly as exciting.)
Presumably the reruns allow the CW affiliates that have newscasts the leeway to cover close races. The CW aired reruns in 2012
on election night.
In other news, The Taste returns to Thursday...in December? So that means TGIT will end briefly on November 20. And if we go by Taste getting two December airings, plus the total most likely being 8 episodes. TGIT returns around February 19th or so.
ABC just announced the TGIT lineup will air their fall finales on November 20th. I think we can assume this was done so they can have Grey's and Scandal return at the beginning of February to hurt The Blacklist
TGIT returns January 29th, most likely.
1. It's week before new Thursday NBC lineup premieres.
2. It allows them to air last 6 episodes of HTGAWM, and still have 10 regular season Thursdays for Secret and Lies.
So, no one thinks that the SHIELD uptick was due to the Avengers teaser footage? I think it was definitely a factor.
I like it. Thanksgiving ushers in the Christmas season, so it's a natural break. Throw on some Charlie Brown and call it a year.
Honestly, comedies after The Voice seems like a waste of time at this point. But I'm guessing they'll still stick something there, because there's no way they're going into 2015-16 with zero returning comedies.
NBC is quietly having a kind of bad fall. I mean, when The Mysteries of Laura does well enough to warrant a back order...
The more I think of it, the more November 20th looks like a natural breaking point. They were going to have to break for Thanksgiving anyways and December 4th is Peter Pan Live! Having three serial dramas take a week off and then return against a big live event is the type of scheduling that hurt Once Upon a Time in season 2. This also allows them to attack The Blacklist and keep it from taking off on Thursdays. Which is pretty smart. It's like when NBC had Chicago Fire avoid CSI for 2 months and built up an audience and them came back stronger against CSI and damaged its competitor. If they gave The Blacklist three weeks free in February to get settled in against probably sub 1 The Taste, it could damage Scandal. But if it returns at the same time they will make people chose and kill all momentum The Blacklist has
Another step towards my preseason prediction of ABC winning the season. NBC's entire scheduling plan for the year has just been countered, and probably successfully too.
Just like with the comedies, ABC have learned from their past scheduling errors.
It is an excellent plan and much better than the one I had come up with. My hats off to ABC. December and January is the perfect time to air The Taste and November 20th is indeed the natural break for TGIT. It also allows them to have enough episodes of Murder to make sense bring it back in 2015 and, most importantly, it still keeps the split season format that worked so well for them last year.
My guess is that Murder has a two hour finale to even out the accounts of GA (which is preempted this week) and Scandal. The only real question is if they bring it back 05/02, in a direct attack against NBC's new lineup or if they bring it back a week earlier. The 05/02 solution is quite neat because it would then allow for GA to run straight through and for Scandal to have only a break for two hour Murder finale and to Secrets and Lies to fit all of its episodes in season (with its finale following a two hour GA finale). Besides, we ratings addicts would go nuts with TGIT premiering the same night as NBC's most valued new night of the season lol.
In any case, excellent job ABC!
In other news, it has now been confirmed that the double OUAT episode of November sweeps won't air in the 7pm hour as previously announced (which I had always found very very odd) but rather preempt Resurrection that week! I now think they will bring back Resurrection in January to end it Betrayal style. The only question is whether or not Revenge is forced to come back with it or not.
For all the horrible things that ABC did in the past, especially last season, this year they are doing just incredibly scheduling wise. Maybe the person in charge has changed? It's shocking to see such a drastic difference.
Now if only they could give Shield the Beyond the Tank lead-in and The Whispers lead-out!
I think that's more likely yes. But I think there is also a chance that they have the lineup come back the same week as NBC's lineup premieres. The orders would fit better. GA would run straight through and have a double finale. Murder would have a double finale after GA. Scandal would run straight through except for the week of Murder finale and then would end a week earlier. Secrets and Lies would run straight through and air all episodes in the season. But I can see the argument for making the return a week earlier too.
In any case, I really like the plan and it is better than the plans I had which is something I don't say often. I am very happy with ABC.
I don't think they are having that bad of a fall. They've stabilized Wednesdays (with PD remaining a vast improvement at 10pm and SVU holding up after such a strong year last year, which was hard to do) and they still have The Voice, Blacklist and Fire going strong. Friday just premiered so no comments there yet. Thursdays are still a mess but then again, that was their plan all along, they didn't expect to fix them before midseason, so I don't think it's a big deal. It was a bit of a low-stakes fall for them I think. And their results are in line with that in my opinion.
I think this is a clear case in which the spring schedule is much more important for the network than the fall one, much like FOX's used to be.
They really have turned it around.
Definitely put Whispers at 10. I'd say the 8pm hour is not so important when there's a really obvious Flash -> SHIELD cross-network flow (kind of like the TVD -> Grey's flow of years past, but even more obviously compatible), but it's clear that SHIELD really does take damage from a bad and incompatible lead-in. (That analogy actually just made me realise just how valuable Grey's has been for ABC...)
I think at least an argument should be made into doing Shark Tank | Beyond the Tank | 20/20 instead of what you are proposing. Shark Tank would for sure improve on the comedies enough to offset any losses that Beyond the Tank might have from Shark Tank itself (especially with Shark Tank as its lead-in), and I doubt 20/20 would be affected with having Beyond instead of Shark as lead-in. So the night as a whole would be better off. Sure, the individual ratings of Shark Tank would be hurt but you are the one always telling me that it is about maximizing the overall ratings for the night.
I would still much rather see Beyond used on Tuesday where this is literally no other decent option as lead-in for Shield's spring run, but if it is to land on Fridays, which I think it is, I think this option is at least worth considering as it would improve ABC's night overall.
Yeah, I've argued for years that GA's strength has been vastly underrated throghout the years (even if its raw numbers were strong enough in and by themselves). There are few shows that can do what GA did for so many years with so many comically bad lead-ins.
As for Shield, I am not so sure if that transition is as smooth as you are saying and I definitely think it needs something to help at 8pm. I still think that doubling its lead-in like it has been doing is quite valuable and certainly not an easy feat which certainly shows it is not lead-in dependent. But a certain amount of casual viewing audience coming from a lead-in is still necessary for the show.
Yeah, SHIELD has its own audience (and, like Grey's, said audience has a very valuable age and gender skew), but it's a small enough audience that it needs topping up with casual viewers. Especially when the rest of the network has a quite different demographic skew to SHIELD (though many of the potential casual viewers are locked in watching MNF in the fall, allowing corporate synergy to kick in a bit).
Tuesday seems like a pretty decent night to go male-skewing now - no football, FOX going all-in on W18-34, CBS going all-crime drama (I was going to say all-procedural but POI is definitely serialized now) and NBC going Voice -> shots in the dark -> Chicago Fire.
I agree with your Shield's assessment entirely. As for Tuesday's going male night, that should really have happened last year when Shield was launched, they will never find such a big opportunity again. I still hate that they didn't pick up Big Thunder that year in what would have been a very obvious pairing and then something else in those veins for 10pm. It was really stupid that they didn't go in that direction with the "all new tuesday" thing and simply launched the goldbergs and trophy wife on Wednesdays, but well.
This year, I again think they could have went for it, though in a way I could also understand their interest in trying hangout comedies again. But next year (and midseason actually) there really isn't any reasonable justification for them not to go in that direction. Even if some stuff that you've mentioned goes in the other direction (The Flash is a legitimate male competitior and who knows what FOX will do with this night next year) I still think they should go for it.
I've said before that right now ABC should have two HUGE development priorities: finding a suitable show to follow OUAT + finding male skewing shows to surround Shield with. Both are very challenging tasks but they need to go for it. I actually think the Sunday challenging is even bigger than the Tuesday one.
Using my own words against me. Nice move. But you should check your math. What is better for ABC?
1.0 for Beyond the Tank leading into 2.0 for Shark Tank = 1.6 average.
Or 1.6 for Shark Tank leading into 1.2 for Beyond the Tank = 1.4 average.
Those are not my expectations, those are just nice round numbers as example to prove -x% for ST & +x% for BtT = loss for ABC. Pretty big loss considering ST is their most profitable show.
And I'm not making it up - ABC did test Shark Tank at 8 PM, and for some reason it works much better at 9 PM. Every time ABC tried random 8 PM episode (weekday, or Friday, doesn't matter) it was down 10-15% and to season low (or tying it). Two hours episodes also prove it:
9/26/2014 - here are half-hours: 1.6 / 1.9 / 2.1 / 2.1
5/17/2013 hours: 1.3 / 1.9
Irony is Shark Tank was 8 PM hour show, and they stumbled into it being 9 PM show. When ABC decided to return comedies at Friday, they pushed Malibu County premiere to November, because they wanted to promote it during CMA. That season average of 18 Shark Tank episodes at 9 PM was 1.92, and 9 hours at 8 PM averaged 1.71. So they had nice sample from the same season to compare. All in all, it's not to say Shark Tank would never ever go back to 8 PM. But it would have to be a big need, which tenth or two better ratings of Beyond the Tank absolutely isn't.
Their plan for season 2015-16 obviously was: Agent Carter at 8 PM leading into S.H.I.E.L.D. at 9 PM. With 10 PM being either some more male oriented stuff, either like this season - attempt to find procedural that would replace aging Castle one day.
And that's fine plan. But problem is S.H.I.E.L.D. dropped more than anyone expected. Those are not terrible ratings, but worrying, yes. And, same as every new show, "Carter" is big if. We'll see how it all works out.
Anyway, it's nice to see ABC is trying to target different demo on Tuesday, to "diversify their portfolio". Even if Disney & Marvel kinda forced Paul Lee into it.
I agree that Shark Tank would go down and would do worse at 8pm, your own examples prove it. But even taking this season's premiere as an example it would average a 1.75. A 1.6 seems a bit too low to me, I would expect more like a 1.7, which is what those 9 hours at 8pm in the year Malibu Country aired ended up averaging (and Tank is clearly a stronger show now than it was back then anyway).
But still our biggest disagreement is Beyond the Tank. I.3 is what I would expect from it airing at 8pm. At 9pm out of Shark I would expect much higher .Hell even What Would You do in the low rated summer and out of Tank repeats was pulling 1s, for sure Beyond can cross the 1.5 line airing out of Shark Tank's high 1s (and it would be high 1s at 8h30 I think even if the whole hour averages a bit lower).
Additionally, I think there is another advantage of doing this scheme: they can try out Beyond the Tank in the 9pm role without a significant risk. If it happens to work as well as Shark Tank, they can then decide if they want to move Shark Tank to a midweek slot or not if needed be while returning comedies to the hour next fall. I am not saying that this should happen but the flexibility it would entail would be nice to have I think.
Anyway, my preferred use of Beyond would be:
1. Tuesday, leading into Shield, with Fridays remaining the same
2. Shark + Beyond + 20/20 on Fridays
3. Beyond + Shark + 20/20 on Fridays even if I hate this flow
4. 20/20 + Shark + Beyond, only because I think 20/20's losses leading off the night against Dateline would be too hard to offset even if this is what makes sense flow wise
I am not sure if that was ever the plan since Hayley Atwell doesn't seem to be willing to do a lot of episodes of Agent Carter per year and the same goes for the other involved. At least that's the impression I have.
Who cares what she wants. It's a business, and broadcast shows generally have about 22 episodes. If she doesn't want to be in that business, then why sign contract for broadcast show?
Well Viola Davis is getting what she wants and Murder is the biggest new hit this year. Same for Kevin Bacon when the following was the biggest hit in its freshman season.
Here we are again. Same as when you said Supernatural would lose 10% with move from Tuesday to Monday, while iZombie would gain 100% if on Tuesday, and not on Monday.
Here you say Shark Tank would lose 10% with move to 8 PM, while Beyond the Tank would do 50% better at 9 PM than in 8 PM hour.
While those your percentages are not impossible, they are unlikely. Highly unlikely. And in both case your schedule is jerking with proven hit show, and just to accommodate unproven rookie, to put it in timeslot where you like in your fantasy schedule. Another highly unlikely scenario.
Third unlikely thing is ABC would put Beyond the Tank on Tuesday 8 PM. If it was show's 2nd season, yes. They'd know what to expect. New show? No way, fora ll they know, it can just make Tuesday even bigger mess.
Those shows are 15 episodes, not 8 like Agent Carter is.
And whose Hayley Atwell, anyway? As opposed to household name of Kevin Bacon and Viola Davis.
Agree to disagree then on the expected percentage declines of moved shows.
However, I do agree with you that it is unlikely that ABC puts Beyond the Tank on Tuesday this year. My ranking was not of what I expect to happen but rather what I would like to see happening. I think chances of Beyond landing somewhere on the schedule that is not on Fridays are very slim.
I wouldn't be surprised if Revenge comes back in January for a brief run after it held up much better against the Events in season 3 than in season 2. And if it's the last season it doesn't really matter.
Bringing back the shows for a Winter premiere on February 5 would carry more hype and thus be stronger competition against The Blacklist than a Winter Week 2, which would have some drop typical of a season debut.
I agree with that argument. I prefer that plan actually.
My American education had my confused on why May 2nd was such an important date... Sorry.
I wonder if this announcement comes early enough for them to a write the episodes as finales
EDIT: It's probably February 5th after all.
As omabin said, it's possible to fit all episodes with 2/5 date of return, provided there are 2-hours finale for both HTGAWM (3/5, 9-11 PM) and Grey's (5/14, 8-10 PM). Which looks strange at first sight, but is actually very logical, because Grey's has longer order than Scandal, and with today's hiatus, in 2015 it will have 3 more airings than Scandal.
Additionally, it is very true what Chris said:
"Plus, like Bringing back the shows for a Winter premiere on February 5 would carry
more hype and thus be stronger competition against The Blacklist than a
Winter Week 2, which would have some drop typical of a season debut."
Shonda probably knew it all along. It would also explain why they randomly preempted GA this week.
I don't think that's necessarily it. Agent Carter's gap show status could more be due to ABC wanting to hedge its bets about introducing a second Marvel show. If it hits, you can bet that ABC will add it full-time to the schedule for season 2 (Sundays following Once Upon a Time?). If it does roughly the same or slightly better compared to SHIELD, it could continue as gap programming in 2015-2016.
Speaking of that, this is Scandals first outing with Grey's Anatomy right? If it drops at all Rob the troll from tvbythenumbers will go on and on on how Scandal is lead in dependent...
Yeah I also realized that the other day. I think it is bound to drop a bit since the lead-in support will indeed be much lower. But people use the term lead-in dependent way too often, I don't think people know what it means. To me there are three categories of shows.
- Shows whose audience is mainly composed by people which only watch the show because of the lead-in (Go On, Smash). These are what I consider lead-in dependent shows.
- Shows that have a baseline audience that composes most of its audience but that still go up or down with the lead-in as casual viewing still represents a portion of its audience and that one is affected by lead-ins. These are the vast majority of shows on television IMO.
- Shows which show almost no variation of its numbers regardless of the lead-in, since casual viewing accounts for a very little percentage of the total audience (Grey's Anatomy is the best example of the last decade probably, I would argue Chicago Fire is one as well, though not exactly to the same degree)
It's difficult to turn an entire bad ratings night around in just one season. Every net has their challenging nights, some more than others but ABC's is definitely Tuesday. SHIELD as the tentpole on the night makes sense and I don't see that changing next year. The sitcom lead-ins, whether this was a counter-programming strategy to CW's hotly anticipated Flash or just a shot in the dark, it obviously hasn't worked. (Manhattan Love Story, especially, preceding SHIELD was wrong on so many levels. At least Selfie is less romantic comedy and more subversive and edgy in tone.). Assuming a less robust sophomore season Flash, along with a declining Voice and NCIS, all don't move next year, it should be a little easier for ABC to program something highly compatible with SHIELD's demographic, maybe even another series from the Marvel universe. A themed night similar to TGIT could be executed on Tuesday's, like TGIMT (Thank God It's Marvel Tuesday, etc). The 10pm hour is always going to be challenging. I'm not sure if The Whisperers is a 10pm show but that all depends on its level of creepiness. Since it has Steven Spielberg attached to it, I assume it might be a little less creepy. His track record on television is not very good, either. At least Forever has demonstrated that the ABC's 10pm Tuesday timeslot is not cursed but there is still a lot of room left for improvement.
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