 | 2 Broke Girls | ||||||
| Premieres October 27 | |||||||
| y2y | Label | True | Sitch | 2013-14 Slot | |||
| 2.53 | -25% | hit | 2.38 | +6% | M 9:00, M 8:30, M 8:00 | ||
| Timeslot Occupants | How I Met Your Mother | 2 Broke Girls | |||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 2.65 | 3.10 | 3.39 | 3.38 | 2.18 | 2.53 | ||
Best Case: 2 Broke Girls didn't collapse nearly as hard as it could have when it lost its How I Met Your Mother lead-in late last spring. If it could do low-2's in that spot, it can surely clear that bar (maybe and then some) in more favorable parts of the year. It's about even in Plus at 2.28.
Worst Case: It dropped 25% last year with a better lead-in from HIMYM! This show is just plain hemorrhaging. It's headed for the same kind of meltdown that Two and a Half Men had away from Big Bang last year. Down a full point (or 39%) to 1.53.
Likeliest: I will admit that I was a bit pleasantly surprised by 2BG's late-season deliveries. Unfortunately, with the way this show has been trending, all that probably really means is that 2BG can get back to those low-2's when the circumstances are most favorable. Those will mix in with a pretty steady diet of high-1's for a 1.89 average, down another 25%.
 | The Millers | ||||||
| Premiered October 20 | |||||||
| y2y | Label | True | Sitch | 2013-14 Slot | |||
| 2.63 | hit | 2.20 | +19% | Thursday 8:30 | |||
| Timeslot Occupants | We Are Men | 2 Broke Girls | Friends with Better Lives | ||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 2.23 | 2.51 | 1.90 | 1.84 | 2.62 | 2.31 | 1.70 | 1.81 |
Best Case: The only real spin you can put on this show is that we still don't actually have much hard data about what will happen without a Big Bang lead-in. It's possible it will hold up nearly as well as 2 Broke Girls did without HIMYM late last season, and that its BBT retention looks far worse than it really is due to the massive same-day DVRing of Big Bang. That episode it aired after a Big Bang repeat last fall really didn't do that badly considering it was also Halloween. And it might get some momentum from returning to Thursday in January, when the CBS sitcoms usually peak. It's close to even in Plus at 2.35.
Worst Case: This is a fraud of the Go On variety, if not even moreso. It's already well below 50% retention of Big Bang originals, which suggests it will be remarkably weak by CBS sitcom standards when it doesn't get those Big Bang originals. 1.55.
Likeliest: All of these numbers, including the official Likeliest (1.93) were published before The Millers premiered last week and assumed CBS would go with its rather silly current plan of moving The Millers back to Thursday in January. I figured half the season after Big Bang originals, a fourth after Big Bang repeats and a fourth after 2 Broke Girls. I might re-do it (or just not count it) if that plan changes substantially.
But anyway, I thought the show would average about a 2.1-2.2 after Big Bang originals and a 1.7 for the other eps. I haven't given up completely, but that seems pretty optimistic now, as I was expecting about a 2.4 for its return last Monday and it got a 2.1. So I'd probably adjust it down 10%ish if I could.
 | Mom | ||||||
| Premieres October 30 | |||||||
| y2y | Label | True | Sitch | 2013-14 Slot | |||
| 2.09 | solid | 1.99 | +5% | Monday 9:30 | |||
| Timeslot Occupants | The Millers | ||||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 2.50 | 2.78 | 2.63 | 2.20 | ||||
Note: Out of laziness/inertia, and because I expect I will have to redo/not count these numbers anyway, I will stick with my preseason pick for Mom. It's probably a bit optimistic now since it's premiering later on the calendar, but it might get one or two more eps than I was expecting after BBT even if CBS sticks to the current plan. So I don't think the situation is that different and, again, it's so subject to change that it's not really worth overthinking.
 | Two and a Half Men | ||||||
| Premieres October 30 | |||||||
| y2y | Label | True | Sitch | 2013-14 Slot | |||
| 2.27 | -40% | solid | 2.24 | +2% | Thu 9:30, Thu 9:00 | ||
| Timeslot Occupants | The Crazy Ones | Two and a Half Men | |||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 2.07 | 2.29 | 2.24 | 1.97 | 2.39 | 2.46 | ||
Best Case: Based on what Men did after its return to 9/8c in the spring, there's really no denying that the show was a serious victim of scheduling for the first two thirds of the season. It's back in the 9/8c saddle now, and there's a real chance Mom is a better lead-in than what Men had last year. And finally, it could benefit from the final season announcement. Dare I dream Charlie Sheen re-appears down the stretch run? Up double digits to a 2.65.
Worst Case: Barring something major like the return of Sheen, people won't really care how this kind of show comes to an end. CBS follows through on returning The Millers to Thursday, where it's a lot weaker than last season, and Men isn't strong enough to stem the general collapse of the night. Down over 20% to a 1.80.
Likeliest: As with all of the CBS comedies, there's some scheduling uncertainty here. We don't really know what will be at 8:30 over the long term. But it's hard to imagine almost any scenario in which a final season of Two and a Half Men gets even more of a shaft than the 9:30 after The Crazy Ones treatment last year. If it could break 2.5 deep into April last year, I think low-2's should be a reasonable expectation for most of the season, and it might go higher at the end. 2.27, dead even.
 | The McCarthys (NEW!) | ||||||
| Premieres October 30 | |||||||
| Timeslot Occupants | Two and a Half Men | The Crazy Ones | |||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 1.78 | 1.92 | 2.21 | 2.11 | 1.67 | 1.63 | ||
Best Case: Laurie Metcalf is pretty much a perfect fit on a CBS sitcom, and the network should have gotten this kind of role for her years ago. It's certainly not a flashy concept, but it's a much more logical fit into the lineup than The Crazy Ones ever was. Metcalf almost single-handedly makes this show a very solid retainer of the Two and a Half Men audience. 2.10.
Worst Case: Two years ago, CBS picked up a ton of dramas and ultimately only one comedy, and the one comedy (Partners) was a huge dud. Last year, it was a ton of comedies and very few dramas, and the dramas (Hostages/Intelligence/Reckless) bombed big. This year, there's yet another imbalance in favor of drama, which doesn't make me feel good about The McCarthys. And it kinda feels like another The Millers, except with a lesser-known cast. It's a big step down from even what CBS was getting from The Crazy Ones late last season. 1.40.
Likeliest: Beyond the comedy/drama imbalance, this show didn't even seem that high on CBS' comedy list until How I Met Your Dad blew up and The Odd Couple underwhelmed. And CBS won't even let it get a sniff at the post-Big Bang slot. It just feels like a "last resort" kind of show, so I don't really see it working. I expect it to settle at the same kind of sub-70% retention seen from shows like Partners, We Are Men and Bad Teacher. 1.61, and it will be the casualty whenever CBS makes its seemingly inevitable comedy scheduling audible.
 | Elementary | ||||||
| Premieres October 30 | |||||||
| y2y | Label | True | Sitch | 2013-14 Slot | |||
| 1.73 | -23% | marginal | 1.93 | -10% | Thursday 10:00 | ||
| Timeslot Occupants | Elementary | ||||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 1.59 | 1.74 | 1.73 | 1.93 | ||||
Best Case: How to Get Away with Murder looks like fierce competition, but thanks to the late premiere, Elementary will only have to deal with it for half of the season at most. After Murder ends, this slot could really open up. Down 5% to 1.65, including even to up in the second half of the season.
Worst Case: Early in the year, it's facing a series that is somehow even stronger than Scandal was last year, plus the NFL. It also has a lead-in from The McCarthys that is actually a major step down from Two and a Half Men last year. Both of those aspects of the timeslot will probably improve when Murder ends and CBS shakes up its comedies, but they'll dig Elementary into a hole that it can't get out of. Down 30% to a paltry 1.20, and it's a painful rest of the road to syndication.
Likeliest: Despite the 23% drop last year, I thought the show did OK given the tough competition and bad lead-in. Sadly, those things are not getting any better for Elementary in season three, at least early on, and they may get worse. I could see the drops lessening in the second half of the season, but CBS is struggling at 10/9c and this will probably again be on the low end of CBS' 10/9c offerings. Down 19% to a 1.40.
 | MasterChef Junior | ||||||
| Premieres November 4 | |||||||
| y2y | Label | True | Sitch | 2013-14 Slot | |||
| 1.40 | marginal | 1.62 | -14% | Friday 8:00 | |||
| Timeslot Occupants | Utopia Tue | ||||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.96 | ||||
Best Case: MasterChef is the stronger property compared to Hell's Kitchen right now. And this series' 1.40 average last season came on a Friday night and was one of the strongest Fox Friday series in recent history. It could do a little better on a higher-viewed evening. 1.55.
Worst Case: Fox is in meltdown mode. 'Nuff said. Hell's Kitchen is scraping out low-1's right now and another Ramsay series is just too much. 0.95.
Likeliest: One thing I didn't realize about this show last year is that it is labeled just "MasterChef" on program guides, meaning viewers with a DVR season pass for the mothership pick this one up. I'm just throwing that out there as some consolation for my huge underestimation of this series last year. Still, it's facing The Voice for a large portion of the season, so I don't think the upgrade in overall viewing will help much. I see it taking the same kind of upper teens drop that the Ramsay summer shows did, resulting in a 1.17 (still a big improvement on Utopia).
 | State of Affairs (NEW!) | ||||||
| Premieres November 17 | |||||||
| Timeslot Occupants | The Blacklist | ||||||
| Avg | Orig Avg | ||||||
| 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.82 | 2.55 | ||||
Best Case: This is a solid piece of timeslot continuity by NBC: a show that should be right in The Blacklist viewers' wheelhouse. It may not have James Spader, but the surrounding show is actually better, and it basically picks up with at least the same ratings Blacklist would've gotten in the slot. 2.55.
Worst Case: It's kind of like The Blacklist, except that James Spader is pretty much the only reason why anyone likes that show. It will struggle to premiere at the level of a typical Blacklist episode and get completely derailed when NBC foolishly tries airing it after whatever middling reality show is at 9/8c in January. NBC comes up with something else to air after The Voice when it returns in February. 1.35.
Likeliest: This is yet another situation where the current scheduling plan doesn't make a lot of sense. Will NBC air this series in January? Will they put it on a significant hiatus after just a month following The Voice? No option seems that good. Anyway, I don't see this being another Blacklist, but I actually think it could be a season one Revolution-sized player with Revolution-style scheduling. Sadly, this is well worse than that. For these purposes, I'll say it airs in January. It premieres at roughly typical Blacklist numbers, drops some over the next month, hits mid-1's at best in January, and it can't get more than a high-1's audience back when The Voice returns. 1.85. Smash and Revolution got renewed, so this should too, but it may get the lower-priority treatment. If it is kept off the air completely during the Voice hiatus, I'd go a tenth higher, but that situation is also less than ideal.
35 comments:
Let's start with CBS.
2 Broke Girls. I think this show is absolutely awful and its been collapsing because of that. But it has some things going for it. It's now only facing the weaker half of the Voice in the fall and will probably air almost every week of The Voice hiatus. I see -15% and another season
Mom. I hope it stays behind Big Bang. I think it can do great there. Sophomore bounce.
Two and Half Men. I think people put WAY too much stock into the 9 o'clock airings. It undperformed last year. Even in the first two weeks when it had good lead ins (3.9 and 2.9) and lost a nice chunk (2.9 and 2.3). But I think Mom and being at 9 will help it stay basically even
The McCarthy's. Sorry. You have no chance. Mike & Molly has a 22 episode order. This is a canidate for being pulled We Are Men style.
Elementary. This show was been disappointing from the start. Yeah, it had to face Scandal and got a small bump in January without it, it also saw no bounce in April when it left. A series low 1.4 for the finale does not make me optimistic. Drops at least 15% more
Mastechef Junior did very well last year against a ton of family friendly options on a Friday (Undercover Boss, Last Man Standing, The Neighbors). Honestly, it faces the Voice live results show. This kills probable growth, but I think this show will stay rock solid. I think it'll beat Hell's Kitchen the next day
State of Affairs doesn't have the best position. Worse half of the Voice with Castle and LA as competiton. But I believe its a serial. Even later flop Believe got a decent samping here. But I see more Revolution after its hiatus performer here. Raw numbers look good for renewal, but it's truely weaker than a lot of the other dramas.
CBS comedies (or why football doesn't come up without sacrifices, see sundays in the spring on NBC):
2 Broke Girls: 25% drop, making its TBS syndication deal look even worse, only CBS recent poor comedy development (one late fall premiere, one midseason replacement) can save it from the axe after 2015-16. 1.90
The Millers: if this show was a NFL quarterback, it would be Nick Foles, pulled fraudulent numbers about to be exposed, the Eagles are winning, the Millers too since CBS owns it and will drag it down until it reaches 88. 1.77, close to the worst case scneario.
Mom: deadly even, now the question is, will CBS sacrifice a show of its own for another Lorre comedy from WB but with way bigger potential? Mom should be TBBT's lead-out. It's obvious. 2.10 tis my final pick too.
2.5 Men: I'm going to do a bold prediction and say it's going to pull a The Office and finish close to the worst case scenario. 1.90 skewed by the finale.
The McCarthys: 1.62, unnoficial question: over/under/push 6 episodes before it's pulled for Mike and Molly?
I feel like Mike and Molly will be filling in on Mondays (in place of The Millers). If anything, I like The Odd Couple's chances airing in the post-Men timeslot.
Other shows:
Elementary: will work in an independent way from the comedies, but will continue to be a disappointment, down another 20% to 1.39.
MasterChef Junior: 1.15, it's going to perform around 80-85% of HK's ratings.
State of Affairs: I have a strong opinion this show would be a Smash-esque flop without The Voice support, I see good sampling (premiere in the mid 2s, a bit lower than Believe) than rejection just like it happened to Revolution. Its female-esque nature won't help either, didn't I mention Smash already? It's also going to air in january with a lead-in I have no idea what's going to be (HGN?) since NBC has room to air only five episodes in the fall. Its success is secondary compared to Blacklist's, which is supposed to be NBC's next big thing.
1.88 because despite its winter airings, NBC is going to air something new there late in the spring, I bet its order will be around 15 episodes because you know, Heigl. We don't make predictions for next season but the only question about this show will be: why waching it instead of scandal?
All of CBS' sitcoms just feel so meh to me either because they are ending (2.5 Men), have a history of being disappointing (2BG and The Millers), or just look plain bad (The McCarthys, and also The Millers). The one that is most promising, Mom, is getting the jerkaround between Thursdays and Mondays if CBS follows through with its plan. And I'm inclined to think it's happening because they are hellbent on getting The Millers into syndication; fraud or not they want CBS Studios to get that second-life money. The only real way that it may not happen is if The McCarthys somehow hits out of a inflated 2.5 Men, and it needs to so it doesn't get yanked for The Odd Couple. But considering they added pricier-than-Joe-Schmo-comic actor Sean Hayes to The Millers, CBS doesn't care if The Millers is a fraud (which it is).
The one benefit the CBS Thursday shows will get January: ABC's filler Winter programming won't be as strong as TGIT, NBC won't have gotten its act together yet, and Idol is no longer a Death Star to all shows. Even with that said the road still doesn't look promising for the whole night, including Elementary. Come February, both ABC and NBC are going to have strong 9:00 dramas leading into their 10:00 shows. Lead-ins still count for something and a 3rd place hour on the Eye isn't the best.
Masterchef Junior presents a fun TV math problem. A higher-viewed night + being a stronger Ramsey property - being on Fox - facing The Voice = ???? I'm just surprised that Fox hasn't figured out a way to stretch the season out beyond 6 episodes. My best guess is that it's a child labor law issue...
And State of Affairs. Even if its a Revolution-sized hit, I think it's canceled. NBC saw what happened with that show (and Smash) in a season 2 move, and the post-Voice slot is just still too promising to waste on a flailing drama. If Law & Order: SVU ends, then maybe it eeks something out since one of the Chicago shows will have to become the Wednesday at 9:00 centerpiece and there'll be an additional hour.
You brought something I had in mind too but didn't write in my comment: where does NBC place State of Affairs next season?
SVU is a key factor here, Silvio had strong opposition of NBC placing comedies on tuesdays, instead, he has always defended it should have been Voice/PD/Fire. A SVU-less NBC leads CF back to wednesdays leading to PD, Blacklist will be thursdays centrepiece no matter how it's going to perform.
They are not going to waste The Voice on it again, so, do they let it die on wednesdays at 8? Because it's their only option, but one that's defintely low profile, see there option for old-skewing, poorly reviewed Laura. Thursdays at 10 is another deathslot option, but will they resist lauching a show out of The Blacklist?
Wait, is Mike and Molly confirmed to have 22 episodes?
According to tvline, yes, it is.
I don't understand Elementary pessimism. It should be at about Spot's best case w/o Scandal in timeslot anymore, 1.6 to 1.7 average,
CBS comedies - I don't care, because I don't know their schedule. I mean, I can't know their scheduling when even CBS doesn't know it.
For other shows, I pretty much agree with Spot.
State of Affairs has shortened seasons due to Heigl's contract, so I suspect NBC has it pencilled it for Sundays if it succeeds.
Season to date, ABC is only down 3% year to year on the Thursdays at 10pm timeslot. So Murder is actually a stronger show in PLUS than Scandal was a year ago. Therefore, I see no reason to imagine that the swap from Scandal to Murder should help Elementary, especially since Scandal and Murder have similar skews (with Murder being slightly order skewing)
The State of Affairs schedule is mind blowing. NBC should just air The Sing Off at 10pm (maybe put an original of PD there for the extra exposure in one week or maybe even Constantine) until the end of the fall. They would still probably win the hour and they would position State of Affairs much better by premiering it after the first episode of the voice spring edition. This way it gets a scheduling choice that has no good option.
I will be back with my detailed predictions later.
I sincerely doubt that Mom gets back to Mondays. I am pretty sure that when the mcharthys flops it will be Mike and Molly that gets back to Monday to pair with 2 Broke Girls.
The only way I imagine a different outcome is if Mom actually becomes a smash hit when following Big Bang and CBS decides it's better suited using it to help Scorpion or even to anchor the Monday comedy hour. But while I think it will greatly benefit from the exposure, I think a jump of this magnitude is unlikely.
I agree 100% about Mike and Molly and Mom. But I think Odd Couple might get post Big Bang if they are high on it. They could run Men straight through like they did with Mother and then do Big Bang | Odd Couple | Mom | Millers. We shall see.
To be fair with Elementary, the April episodes had Bad Teacher as a lead-in. I still agree with the overall idea you're saying but I think that's as valid of an excuse as facing Scandal is, so it's kind of indifferent in net terms.
Elementary limped to the finish last year too and didn't really perk up for the season 2 premiere either. Which makes me think that it'll return around a 1.5-1.6 area. Anyways, this show squanders preferential treatment when it gets it.
I love how CBS was advertising Sean Hayes on The Millers like a big deal when his own show flopped last year. It's like if they had Christian Slater to the McCarthy's to get more viewers
CBS has a long history of chosing CBS made shows over others. 3/4ths of their dramas are CBS made, so it doesn't matter a whole lot, but The Millers is the lone CBS still left on the schedule. They may go through with it. They shouldn't as Two and a Half Men is ending and Mike & Molly may no want to keep being Rules of Engagement when the lead has movie deals. So they need to buff up their Chuck Lorre show Mom big time
You misunderstood me. I think Millers gets back to Thursdays on January but what I don't think is that Mom gets back to Mondays.
Don't forget that it's lead in is The McCarthy's... Not exactly the best lead in. How To Get Away With Muder has been doing basically as well as Scandal. Even with your pessimist outlook of the Blacklist on Thursdays, Allegience should be more competition than Parenthood. It also has a series low finale. Lots of reasons
Where do you put it? I'm curious
Either in place of the McHarthys or moving Mom post Men and putting it after Big Bang. I really don't see the mcharthys making it to winter.
For the record, I had published my predictions for all these shows but State of Affairs before the season started back in August. I could maybe adjust them a bit now but I prefer to keep my numbers the same in all fronts, so I will just roll with them anyway. I will probably be at a disadvantage towards you but I am not sure if it matters that much considering the scheduling uncertainty surrounding all these:
- 2 Broke Girls: 1.94. I don't think it will ever be back to hit status but the spring hold was indeed better than expected, so I am giving it a reasonable chance at holding "okay" in there, even if this pairing with the millers inspires less confidence than the one with Mom
- The Millers: A paltry 1.72. I had a 2.00 before season when I thought it would follow practically only big bang originals but I adjusted this one since the scheduling change is so radical. I think it will struggle to hit 1.5s on Monday following 2 Broke Girls. The show is the biggest fraud I remember, even bigger than the likes of Smash.
- Mom: 2.25 and possibly anchors the 9pm anchor in the spring if CBS is high on the odd couple.This number was assuming the original schedule but like Spot, I don't see a compelling reason to change it much.
- Two and a Half Men: Maybe I am reading too much into the 9pm airings last season and the Mother bounce last year, but I think there is enough going for it to expect it to have a nice final season. And like Mother, CBS will probably end up missing it when it's over. The Mom pairing is even better than expected, though I don't include it my number. A 2.45
- The McHarthys: 1.66. I am actually even loss confident about it now than I was pre-seaosn but I also don't want to change this. I would probably have a number even closer to yours. But this number continues to assume that it doesn't get back in the winter, so it probably doesn't even finish airing all 13 (at least on a weekday)
- Elementary: I have it at 1.42 but I think it will do even lower now. I didn't expect Murder to be as strong as it is at all (though as you've pointed out, it won't actually deal with it for that long) and I also didn't expect CBS 10pm hour to be doing as awfully, especially POI. I will leave it at this number for laziness alone but I would go lower otherwise.
- As always, no predictions for unscripted but your Masterchef Jr. prediction sounds about right.
- And finally... State of Affairs. I have no idea what to do here. It has such an awful schedule. And the media will go against it in full force expectations wise for claiming that it has the post voice lead-in. I think this one probably won't get another season, but where it will land ratings wise it is a big question. I will cheat here and do as you did which is to make predictions for both scenarios: If it airs 6 episodes now and then break and come back in the spring, I give it a generic 1.80. If it airs uninterrupted, I give it a 1.70 and much higher in the fall than in the spring obviously. Oh NBC, why not just premiere it after the spring cycle of the voice and make your life easier? The Sing off would fill in just fine for the remainder of the fall!
Out of this bunch, I will watch Mom and State of Affairs!
I am rooting for the show and I plan on trying it but I really don't see it landing a second season. I could be totally wrong but the scheduling is really bad.
I love the Foles analogy! (Wonder if the Eagles might be tempted by an RG3-esque megatrade for Mariota next year?)
How many episodes this calendar year for The McCarthys? I give it that many, with M&M taking over in January.
Spot has Masterchef going down in raw numbers in a move from Friday to a weeknight. Has that ever happened before?
Supernatural is the only verteran show recently to move Friday to a weeknight and that worked wonders. There really isn't a ton of precedent. Grimm and Blue Bloods both got 4 episode pods in other nights (Grimm got 2 of them). Law & Order Prime went from Wednesday to Friday to Wednesday and grew.
Murder is still as big as Scandal and Elementary's repeats performed really poorly last summer, going as low as 0.5s even with Big Brother as it's lead-in.
Shark Tank last year when it aired its special Thursday episode though I am always nervous about using those one-off as patterns for how shows would perform.
I think What Would You Do's brief post Trophy Wife run did worse than Friday
I don't know if it has happened before, but there are multiple things at work. Junior MasterChef was a big fish in a small pond on Fridays, but will now have stronger competition from The Voice, NCIS, and The Flash. The parent show had a poor showing last season relatively to its history. And Fox as a network is a lot weaker now than at this point last season.
Elementary's faces essentially the same competition between Murder and Parenthood, but now it's getting a weaker lead-in. So at best the drama should decline at the league average, and that's considering that, on the whole, NBC's gains at 10:00 come Winter/Spring will more than nullify ABC's weakness once Murder leaves for Secrets & Lies.
This is how I see CBS' comedy scheduling:
Monday: 2 Broke Girls | The Millers/Mom
Thursday: The Big Bang Theory | Mom/The Millers | Two and a Half Men/Mike & Molly | The McCarthy's/Mike & Molly/The Odd Couple
Given what happened with The Crazy Ones last year (freshman sitcom with high-profile names anchoring an hour) CBS won't create a similar situation with The Odd Couple, especially since the show's undergoing some retooling. So once The McCarthy's is yanked, Mike & Molly replaces it since it already has episodes in the can. I imagine that 2.5 Men is going to run straight through without repeats and end by early April (with a break for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and NCAA March Madness). It could end by mid-March if CBS elects to double-pump some weeks after McCarthy's gets off the sked. Then M&M moves up a half-hour to make room for The Odd Couple.
The main reason Mom moves back to Mondays is because a pair of female-headlined sitcoms makes sense from a promotional standpoint. It's clear that's not optimal for that show's future but it does get the sitcom away from Scandal and The Blacklist which should be stronger combined than The Voice.
I think that's possible and I agree about Men running straight through and double pumping at some point after they end The McCarthys early. But I still think M&M will go back to Mondays to pair with 2 Broke Girls. It also allows for that female-headlined sitcoms as you are wishing for. And I think The Voice+DWTS>The Blacklist+Scandal, so if they want to protect Mom they will keep it on Thursdays. This being said, I expect CBS to have a great winter in their comedy department since ABC and NBC will be at reduced strenght (no voice, blacklist or tgit) and they will run more originals than usual since they saved up with TNF.
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