The Question, Wednesday 9/24/14: Will Black-ish be a Post-Modern Family Hit-ish?

After a couple lower-priority lineups on Premiere Monday and Tuesday, ABC begins the high-stakes portion of its fall roll-out tonight. After the sixth season premiere of Modern Family, there's Black-ish, the first brand new fall family comedy that will be regularly scheduled as a Modern lead-out. We don't really know yet whether Black-ish will be as good as previous efforts like Happy Endings, but it may be one of the best prospects commercially if only for "fit" reasons. Will Black-ish be a post-Modern Family hit-ish? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 24, 2014.

Post-Modern Family Launches

4.4 (Cougar Town, 9/23/09, 4.2 Modern) 3.7 (Mr. Sunshine, 2/9/11, 5.1 Modern) 2.8 (Happy Endings, 4/13/11, 3.9 Modern) 2.9 (Apartment 23, 4/11/12, 4.2 Modern) 3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12, 5.5 Modern) 2.8 (Suburgatory s2, 10/17/12, 4.7 Modern) 2.9 (How to Live, 4/3/13, 4.2 Modern) 3.2 (Super Fun Night, 10/2/13, 4.2 Modern) 1.7 (Mixology, 2/26/14, 3.1 Modern)

While I see Black-ish as a stronger fit than other Modern Family lead-outs, I think that will be a greater factor with the long-term ratings than it will tonight. Still, the promos may appeal to the Modern Family crowd and the reviews are relatively positive, so I see a pretty good rating here. It will also be interesting to see how the first 90 minutes of the lineup fare, coming off a summer of strong repeat ratings and with The Goldbergs installed at 8:30.

Over/Under: 2.85.

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