The first two new dramas of the broadcast fall season premiere tonight. NBC previews procedural
The Mysteries of Laura after the finale of
America's Got Talent, while Fox will try to recapture the spirit of
Glee with teen drama
Red Band Society. Neither show exactly feels like a huge out-of-the-box hit in the making, so tonight's pre-premiere Wednesday is key.
The Mysteries of Laura gets a far better lead-in than it should ever see from local programming, while
Red Band has no original scripted competition in an hour that will soon be overstuffed with it. It's another one of those nights that's not about which network beats the other one; it's about whether
either network feels good about itself. Will viewers band together for
Laura or
Red Band Society? That's
The Question for Wednesday, September 17, 2014.
Of these two shows, I think
Red Band has better odds long-term, but that's more about the desperation of Fox than anything else. However, tonight
Laura may have the slightly better shot at exceeding the line. It should be pretty compatible with
America's Got Talent, and that show had a big performance finale on Tuesday.
Highest Rating Among Red Band Society and The Mysteries of Laura Over/Under: 1.65.
TO CLARIFY: "Over" wins if EITHER Red Band Society OR The Mysteries of Laura goes over the line, while "under" wins if NEITHER one goes over.
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.
35 comments:
I feel like Laura could pull a 1.8. Over.
I'll try a bit of optimism today and say over.
Rooting for Red Band Society but with the lead-in benefit I think it's really Laura that I'm counting on.
Over.
If AGT had not spiked to a 2.5 yesterday, I'd say under. But I think Laura will be high 1's. OVER
OVER.
I feel like Laura has to at least do a 1.7 with America's Got Talent as a lead in. The Night Shift did a 1.6 in the summer with the same lead in, so I'm thinking higher here.
Over.
Over. I think both will go over. Laura has a giant lead-in and I think there's some interest in Red Band Society.
Over.
I expect Red Band Society to premiere between 1.5 and 1.8. But, The Mysteries of Laura, thanks to a great lead-in, I think 1.7 to 2.0.
Over.
Having already seen "Mysteries of Laura" at least I'll be spared from the torture of watching it tonight. NBC actually hasn't had any luck long-term with its AGT finale lead-outs in summers past (and this will be another disappointment - "Laura" my pick for the worst new drama this fall), they do perform okay out of AGT. Even the short-lived "Guys with Kids" managed a 2.2.
I'd love it if "Red Band Society" went over too but Fox might be satisfied with a 1.4. Good new drama. Unless it drops to Utopia ratings levels, the network is likely to be patient (pun intended) with RBS after a summer bus tour and early premiere preview online in August.
The Red Band Society audience will be watching AGT, so that's a goner for a start. It's down to Laura, and that will likely need to hang two-thirds retention out of AGT to clear the line. Last season's finale aired at 9/8c out of Million Second Quiz, but the 2012 finale hung a 2.4 against football and led into a 1.4 Rock Center.
I'm expecting something close to 2.4 again. Can a reasonably well-promoted drama premiere possibly be only two ticks stronger than freaking Rock Center with less competition? No, it can't. OVER.
Over
The 2012 finale was on an irregular night. You gotta remember that
Over. Laura should do ok after Got Talent (but will crash next week).
Oh, I know, but that number was about what I'm expecting tonight (which obviously makes it a fair bit stronger in the relative landscape after two years of 10% decline) so the retention was worth checking. Heck, Rock Center had a tougher spot and hung a 1.4. Laura would have to be truly DOA to not hang a 1.7 if Rock Center could hang a 1.4 out of a 2.4 in a tougher spot.
Over. Laura might be considered the fall's worst, but even Guys with Kids and Free Agents went above that line. Red Band Society's 50/50. Apparently it was promoted like mad, but there's still that AGT audience.
Jeez, the unanimity of answers so far is surprising. Is this Line a tenth too low for everyone? Cause it is for me at least...
The Night Shift would have barely missed this Line if it were asked for its May debut. AGT won't be as strong as that night (3.0), but a mid-to-upper 2's finale combined with the higher HUT-level of September and lack of cable's Wednesday heavy-hitters should be enough to essentially give Laura the same boost, if not slightly more potent. As for Red Band Society...good luck against the AGT finale.
Over
(Bonus Unofficial Question: Extant's season finale is also tonight; clearly no one is expecting it to impact The Mysteries of Laura so I'm asking if the reverse is going to happen. Can Extant at least finish existing without hitting a new series low? 1.05.)
I'd forgotten The Night Shift pulled a 1.6 out of a 3.0 AGT. If I'd thought of that before thinking to check previous post-finale retention I suspect my inclination would have been Under...
Over
OVER
Laura probably gets a not so mysterious win premiering after the big finale of AGT so I could see it reaching 2.7 which it will never live to see again anything close to that before its early cancellation. It's a little harder to predict Red Band but I think it could premier at 1.7 which isn't that sick for FOX.
It has basically no competition. I mean its the Extant finale and a rerun of freakin' Nashville! ABC's last two drama encores were Castle (1.1) and Shield (.7) and they both had an over 2 lead in. Getting half of the Shark Tank encore last week would be a win for Nashville
Over. I say both get over 2.0, but by how much I don't know
Over.
I'd be shocked if neither one does. Red Band Society has that youth buzz about it that should score a healthy A18-34; Laura has AGT boost.
I will go against the consensus- UNDER (I don't think I have taken over yet)
Um...under. I guess.
Mostly cuz both look crap.
Over - in terms of quality would hope for red band but then it is on fox
Over
RBS premieres to a 1.7, Laura premieres to a 1.3
Over. I think one of them gets it. Just can't tell which one.
And I sure hope this isn't becoming a pattern of me flipping every time the ratings flop.
I guess I'll go with Over. No real reason.
Over. Could it be Red Band that goes over? I think Laura won't draw males.
Over. Mostly hopeful for Red Band though.
I hate to just follow the group but I have to go Over. I don't expect much from either of these shows long term, but they should be able to avoid being totally DOA, especially considering Laura's lead in.
Over, RBS = 1.7... MoL = 1.3
Under
over
Those ABC repeat comedy ratings continue to impress. The second ABC' second episode of Modern Family (from 20th Century FOX Studio) beat FOX' The Red Band Society (from ABC Studios) which is an interesting irony.
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