| NCIS and NCIS: LA Last Season |
| 3.6/2.81/2.6 (NCIS premiere/avg/finale) 3.0/2.43/2.5 (NCIS: Los Angeles premiere/avg/finale) 4.4 (NCIS: LA series premiere, 9/22/09 (4.8 NCIS lead-in)) |
This show should, like LA, keep 90-100% of the mothership viewers for the series premiere. So though this is an NCIS: New Orleans Question, it may be more about how well NCIS comes back. Spin-off hype may bring some viewers back into the mothership tent, and the competition should be noticeably reduced from 2013 with no massive Agents of SHIELD launch and The Voice slumping a bit. (In fact, the mothership faces nothing scripted at 8/7c.) But it could take a noticeable step below last year's premiere anyway, as last season began with the heavily-hyped departure of Cote De Pablo.
NCIS: New Orleans Over/Under: 2.95.
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45 comments:
Under
Under... 2.6
Under, but just barely, 2.9.
I was hoping for a Shield question though, I think it's more unpredictable.
Over
Under
CBS has promoted this like crazy all summer. But CBS got a great advertising opportunity in the last 2 days. The NFL rematch went into overtime creating huge ratings. Also this year they had the Big Bang BEFORE NCIS premieres to promote. I think NCIS will be way up from the spring. FOX and the CW are basically invisible tonight. Dancing Results won't be near as strong as Shield.
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NCIS: New Orleans is super compatible with NCIS. All ads I have seen for it (minus the Football ones where they just say the name and timeslot) have been NCIS and NCIS: NO adds. Showing Gibbs in New Orleans like he's a regular. It has the higher viewed timeslot. Total viewers will be insane
Just realized I never posted an answer. I'm going optimistic, again. OVER
Unofficial Shield poll?
Agents of Shield Over/Under: 2.45
under. 2.6.
Over. I am very high on the show's ratings this season. I may be in for a rude awakening but well.
I change my guess to over. There will be an actual crossover with the mothership I've learned now (or so have the promos indicated?), so I think that will put it over.
If I go by what happened with Blacklist, I'll say NCIS is at 3.3 or 3.2. With that, New Orleans will get about...let's say 93% retention? So, I say over, but just barely.
Over.
Under with a 2.8
Under.
Around 2.7. I think NCIS mothership will be barely over that line, and I don't expect from spinoff to achieve near 100% retention.
4.4 in P12-17, if this episode is crossover with Frozen. If not, around 10% less.
Over. Slightly. And then under very quickly and significantly as the weeks progress.
Under in same day ratings.
Under.
NCIS needs to score a 3.3 at least for NCIS:NO to score a 3.0 under the 90% assumption listed above (I'd think 80-85% is probably more realistic so NCIS needs a 3.5?). Add Shield into the mix and some Voice audience who won't flip over to CBS at 9pm away from from NBC dramedies as in previous years means steeper competition than NCIS:LA faced.
I think that premiere week tends to do better than all other weeks (even y2y- wasn't premiere week UP last year?). Because of that, I will go just OVER at a 3.1
SHIELD will return as merely a decent player, and the slot is wiiiiiiiiiiiide open for the NCIS mothership to pull in big numbers.
Can the spinoff premiere in the 3s? There was enough football promotion, and a big enough game on CBS two nights ago, for me to think it can. And if this episode is a crossover, that locks in very nice retention indeed. OVER.
I'm struggling on this one, because NCIS: Mothership has had a rough go of it since Ziva left. It shed half a ratings point once that plotline was resolved, and never got it back. It was getting some really dire numbers in the spring.
Overall, I think NCIS will not reach the level it got for last premiere. Instead, I think it will reach about 3.1. That basically requires a complete hold from NO, and I just don't think that'll happen. Under at 2.8.
Over. Maybe a new spin off on the night can make NCIS go a little higher than usual? I'm not very confident on this one.
Over. NCIS can do 3.6 again this year, against much less competition.
under
Under. 2.7/2.8.
Is it really a crossover episode, guys? Doesn't seem to be (and I'm betting as if it isn't), but that information could change my mind. =|
Under
Over
Under, for me it lost too many viewers a long time ago to get back to the high 2's.
Over
Over
Hmmm. OVER.
Just a side note: my mother rarely (if ever) watches NCIS, but will be tuning in for NCIS: New Orleans tonight. Why? I dunno, but she said it looked good.
I think it's more of a cameo, the main guy from NCIS is just popping in for a little or something. Apparently there are a lot of these crossover/cameos planned.
Not "the main guy". (Gibbs) The M.E. (Ducky) And presumably by Skype, at that.
Over
Very uncertain about this, but Scorpion's performance just re-affirmed CBS's ability to successfully launch a drama. Wouldn't be surprised either way though
UNDER
I'm predicting a 3.2 for NCIS. LA got a 3.0 last year
NO = NCIS * 85% = ~2.7, my pick is under.
Under.
NCIS New Orleans will draw in total viewers but I predict not over your watermark in Adults 18-49.
Under
Oh, Mark Harmon is going to be in episode 3, that's where I got confused. I suppose it isn't a particularly heavily advertised affair then, is it? Reminds me of the Chief Wiggum PI episode of The Simpsons, where the Simpsons were in the New Orleans parade.
I need to watch The Simpsons, so I'm not confused by references to it.
Chief Wiggum, P.I. will return...right now!
Look Big Daddy, it's Regular Daddy!
Over. A new spin-off raises all boats.
NCIS: NO will be fine in my opinion.
Then again, look what happened to CSI: NY and CSI: Miami. :D
Hooray. I didn't see why one would think NCIS would recover so much.
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