The Question, Monday 9/22/14: Will Gotham Fly Much Higher than Scorpion?

Opening night for the 2014-15 TV season is probably one of the highest-stakes evenings for broadcast TV drama in quite some time. There's a new drama premiering in each hour (including ABC's Forever at 10/9c), plus the returns of two very important sophomores (Fox's Sleepy Hollow at 9/8c and NBC's The Blacklist at 10/9c). But for Question purposes, I'm boiling it down to the two most interesting. Fox's Batman prequel Gotham takes on more importance almost daily as the rest of the once-proud Fox schedule crumbles around it. And CBS has blown up decades of two-hour Monday comedy tradition for the action procedural Scorpion, which is getting a huge promotional push and a The Big Bang Theory lead-in tonight. Will Gotham fly much higher than Scorpion? That's The Question for Monday, September 22, 2014.

Notable Fall 2013 Drama Premieres

4.7 (Agents of SHIELD, 9/24/13) 3.8 (The Blacklist, 9/23/13) (5.6 Voice 9:30 lead-in) 3.5 (Sleepy Hollow, 9/16/13) (2.4 Bones 8:30 lead-in) 1.8 (Hostages, 9/23/13) (2.5 Mom lead-in)

NOTE: THERE IS A SPREAD. IT IS NOT JUST WHICH SHOW WILL WIN. PLEASE KEEP READING.

Historically, the smart money in these early-season spreads has been on the show with the better timeslot. I've usually expected the show with the better slot to win by a solid margin, and it ends up winning in a huge rout. In this case, Scorpion has the better slot; it gets to lead immediately out of The Big Bang Theory, while Gotham must face it head-to-head. However, this one's different because the worse-timeslot show has a massive edge in awareness. I think that's enough to make Gotham a pretty strong favorite on premiere night.

Spread: Gotham beats Scorpion by 0.75 points.

TO CLARIFY: Respond with "Gotham" if you think Gotham beats Scorpion by 0.8 points or more. Respond with "Scorpion" if you think Gotham beats Scorpion by 0.7 points or less, or if you think Scorpion ties or beats Gotham.

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