The Question, Monday 9/15/14: Will Dancing with the Stars Have Another Starring Season?

To be honest, when I first announced the return of The Question on September 15, I mistakenly thought the new drama Forever was previewing on this night. Instead, we must begin with an unscripted premiere. But the return of Dancing with the Stars is more interesting than most because the show trended so well in its 2013-14 seasons. It was only barely down year-to-year in the fall, then surprisingly up in the spring. The fall season once again gets a head start on its main competitor The Voice, which may help it gain even more momentum in a duel that seemed to be moving in DWTS' direction. Will Dancing with the Stars have another starring season? That's The Question for Monday, September 15, 2014.

Dancing with the Stars Recent Premieres

2.5 (9/24/12, vs. The Voice) (2.26 season avg) 3.2 (3/18/13, NOT vs. The Voice) (2.29 season avg) 3.1 (9/16/13, NOT vs. The Voice) (2.16 season avg) 2.6 (3/17/14, vs. The Voice) (2.33 season avg)

This is another premiere in the "NOT vs. The Voice" category. The effect of facing The Voice is clear; though the last four seasons all had similar raw averages, the premieres that avoided The Voice were considerably higher. With The Voice teetering a bit, DWTS may take a smaller drop this year against full competition, but repeating the 3.2/3.1 tonight feels like a big ask. It won't have any competition as big as last year's Sleepy Hollow premiere, but finales for American Ninja Warrior and MasterChef may steal some unscripted eyeballs. I think the premiere is down a bit, but the fall eps hold up better.

Over/Under: 2.85.

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