Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/29/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: It took multiple Monday Night Football pre-emptions, but ABC finally had a bad adjustment night as Dancing with the Stars (1.8) was down 0.1 and Castle (2.2) went down by 0.2. Still, Castle was even with last year's premiere. The Scorpion story got even sweeter as it picked up a tick to 3.1, leaving it down just a tenth week-to-week, while The Voice (4.0) also got a tenth of symbolic importance to put it above last week's rating.

• The two big premieres from last Monday still looked quite promising in week two. Fox's Gotham (2.8) was down 13%. Normally that would be a very strong hold for this kind of show, but it paled in comparison to CBS' Scorpion (3.0). That show was preliminarily down just two tenths (or 6%) week-to-week despite a massive downgrade in lead-in (from 5.4 at 8:30 last week to 3.1 for a Big Bang repeat this week). It will have to endure even more downgrades when The Big Bang Theory (4.7) leaves Monday entirely, but we'll worry about those when they get here.

• It wasn't all rosy for CBS, as NCIS: Los Angeles (1.9) was overwhelmed in its first 10/9c try against The Blacklist (2.8) and the return of Castle (2.4). This was two tenths behind its lowest rating in five seasons on Tuesday and 24% behind the May finale. Castle might adjust down due to football pre-emptions, but this number is currently the series' biggest rating since May 2012, continuing ABC's very hot streak.

• Though The Blacklist (2.8) sagged by 18% vs. a couple drama premieres, The Voice (3.9) was even week-to-week and helped NBC pull farther ahead overall. Dancing with the Stars (1.9) was just below last week's prelim, which adjusted up two tenths in finals; we'll see if the football pre-emptions make things different in finals. And Sleepy Hollow (1.7) took a discouraging 15% drop from last week's already discouraging premiere.

First Two Weeks, Red Band Society

WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.3
Lead-in: Hell's Kitchen (1.4 overall, 1.5 at 8:30)
Competition: Modern Family (R) (1.3/1.5), Criminal Minds (R) (1.0), America's Got Talent (2.6 at 9:00, 2.7 at 9:30), The 100 (R) (0.2). Total: 5.25.

The Question, Monday 9/29/14: Will Castle Build an Advantage on NCIS: Los Angeles?

CBS schedulers took what would've been the most interesting premiere of Monday #2 off the board when they decided to hold Mom in favor of The Big Bang Theory repeats at 8:30. But we still have the opening duel between veteran procedurals Castle and NCIS: LA at 10/9c. Castle is entering its seventh season in this hour, while NCIS: Los Angeles is finally on the move after five seasons following the NCIS mothership. As long as The Blacklist is here (and maybe even beyond), these two shows will probably be battling for second place, but it could be a close one. And both shows are resolving cliffhangers tonight. Will Castle build an advantage on NCIS: Los Angeles? That's The Question for Monday, September 29, 2014.

SpotVault - How To Get Away With Murder (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

How To Get Away With Murder

Thursdays, 10/9c, ABC

SpotVault - Scandal (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Scandal

Thursdays, 9/8c, ABC

SpotVault - Grey's Anatomy (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Grey's Anatomy

Thursdays, 8/7c, ABC

SpotVault - Parenthood (NBC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Parenthood

Thursdays, 10/9c, NBC

SpotVault - Bones (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

Bones

Thursdays, 8/7c, Fox

The Question, Sunday 9/28/14: Can Resurrection Come Back to Life?

The last day of premiere week is without a new series premiere, but there are a couple pivotal sophomores coming back. Since we'll visit Fox's animation/live-action mix next week, this time we look to the return of ABC's four-hour lineup, intact from last spring. The 3.8 March premiere of Resurrection was one of the biggest surprises of the 2013-14 season, but the show dropped each of the next six weeks, falling to exactly half of the season premiere rating in week seven before getting a little back for the finale. Now we'll see what's left after a four-month hiatus. Can Resurrection come back to life? That's The Question for Sunday, September 28, 2014.

The Question, Friday 9/26/14: Will The Amazing Race Be Less Amazing on Friday?

Sadly for Question purposes, Premiere Friday is mostly filled with series that have been airing on Friday for awhile. The only exception is CBS' The Amazing Race, which comes to Friday after being on Sunday since 2006. It was part of CBS' effort to give Madam Secretary its best possible timeslot. CBS has currently ordered only a fall season for TAR, and midseason options like Undercover Boss and The Mentalist figure to factor into the Friday/Sunday web somehow, so the Race's numbers may be more important than you might think. Will The Amazing Race be less amazing on Friday? That's The Question for Friday, September 26, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Thursday 9/25/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: All three ABC shows added another tenth in finals. CBS' Giants/Redskins football game averaged a 6.0 (combined with NFLN), up 33% from last week. It was at roughly 4.7 on only CBS. The big five were up 12% vs. last year's premiere Thursday, though it's more like 1% once the NFLN numbers are taken out of the CBS ratings. (CBS would be +12% vs. their big one-hour Big Bang + The Crazy Ones night last year.)

• ABC is definitely thanking God that it's Thursday. Grey's Anatomy (3.0) took only an average drop from last year's premiere in its move to 8/7c, a really outstanding result given mid-2's were the norm even at 9:00 late last season. Scandal (3.8) is already at a new series high, two tenths above last year's premiere, and it could be farther ahead after finals. And How To Get Away With Murder (3.8) was the week's biggest newbie premiere, drawing a large crowd even outside the Scandal audience. (Beyond matching Scandal's demo, it also shot up from Scandal's total viewership by over two million.) ABC was +32% vs. last year's Premiere Thursday, which featured two hours of Grey's and an Agents of SHIELD repeat. It's not clear how sustainable all of this is, but it's not a huge stretch to say it could end up being ABC's strongest three-hour lineup since the Desperate Housewives/Grey's Anatomy heydays.

• Given these huge numbers, the results weren't too ugly for premieres on Fox and NBC. Bones (1.6) basically matched its spring numbers but was way down from last fall, while NBC's Parenthood (1.4) was within two tenths of last season's premiere despite a much smaller lead-in. Parenthood narrowly outrated lead-in The Biggest Loser (1.3), which held even week-to-week against the increased competition. NBC was -20% vs. last year's premiere Thursday, while Fox had another very ugly number at -46% (though this time a 9/8c Sleepy Hollow repeat (0.7) is at least something of an excuse).

• Football details after finals, but even in another blowout, the game looks to be well up from last week.

First Two Weeks: Let's Play A Game!

A few weeks ago, when reviewing another year of predicting all the new series fates after just two data points, I said I had kind of made my point with this idea and was looking to switch it up somehow. There seemed to be some interest in adding an interactive aspect to it. So for anyone who's interested, we can give that a try this season. Here are my rough ideas for how that will work, and feedback is very welcome.

The Question, Thursday 9/25/14: Can ABC Get Away With a Third Straight Shonda Drama?

ABC's biggest night of the fall has finally arrived. Scandal is coming off of its first season as broadcast TV's top drama, and this Thursday lineup featuring three Shonda Rhimes dramas has been the network's biggest promotional focus all summer. Expectations will be high, as Scandal finished last season well and has surprisingly little competition. Tonight, we'll also get to see Scandal as a lead-in to another drama for the first time, and the Viola Davis drama How To Get Away With Murder seems like a good fit. Can ABC Get Away With a third straight Shonda drama? That's The Question for Thursday, September 25, 2014.

SpotVault - Black-ish (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Black-ish

Wednesdays, 9:30/8:30c, ABC

SpotVault - Modern Family (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Modern Family

Wednesdays, 9/8c, ABC

SpotVault - The Goldbergs (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

The Goldbergs

Wednesdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC

SpotVault - The Middle (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

The Middle

Wednesdays, 8/7c, ABC

SpotVault - Nashville (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Nashville

Wednesdays, 10/9c, ABC

SpotVault - Chicago PD (NBC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Chicago PD

Wednesdays, 10/9c, NBC

SpotVault - Law and Order: SVU (NBC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Law and Order: SVU

Wednesdays, 9/8c, NBC

SpotVault - Survivor (CBS) - Fall 2014 Ratings

Survivor

Wednesdays, 8/7c, CBS

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Wednesday 9/24/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC saw upward adjustments in the first 90 minutes, making Modern Family (3.9) now look like a pretty solid win at just 7% behind last year's premiere. Red Band Society (1.1) also mercifully got a tenth back.

• Despite uninspiring starts from ABC's longtime Wednesday tentpoles, the new kids on Wednesday looked quite promising. Black-ish (3.3) was down only about 10% from its Modern Family lead-in (3.7) and had virtually full retention in total viewership, making it probably the most impressive post-ModFam premiere yet. And The Goldbergs (2.3) ticked up from a surprisingly modest The Middle (2.1) in first new episode on Wednesday. Add in a 25% year-to-year dip for Nashville (1.5) and ABC was still down 16% from last year's premiere Wednesday. But don't blame it on The Goldbergs and Black-ish.

• NBC's tri-crime drama night got off to a decent start with The Mysteries of Laura (1.5) dropping a predictable 25% from its post-America's Got Talent preview, and Law and Order: SVU (2.1) and Chicago PD (1.9) scoring well. But since SVU had a stunningly high 2.6 two-hour premiere last year, NBC was still down 23% from last year's opening Wednesday. And these shows have tended to spike when CBS is out of the crime drama business, so let's see what happens when Criminal Minds and Stalker join the mix.

• CBS had a very good night with the 90-minute return of Survivor (2.7) and the 90-minute finale of Big Brother (2.6), each up a tenth from when CBS did this arrangement last year (it was on pre-premiere Wednesday, but vs. much more unscripted competition). This combo was 9% above CBS' premiere of its regular Wednesday lineup last season.

• And Fox had another very brutal night as Hell's Kitchen (1.3) inched down again and Red Band Society (1.0) dropped 23% in week two. This was 55% behind two hours of cancelled The X Factor last year...

• The big four preliminarily combined to go 21% behind premiere Wednesday last year.

SpotVault - Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

Tuesdays, 9/8c, ABC

SpotVault - Chicago Fire (NBC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Chicago Fire

Tuesdays, 10/9c, NBC

SpotVault - Person of Interest (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

Person of Interest

Tuesdays, 10/9c, CBS

SpotVault - NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

NCIS: New Orleans

Tuesdays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - NCIS (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

NCIS

Tuesdays, 8/7c, CBS

The Question, Wednesday 9/24/14: Will Black-ish be a Post-Modern Family Hit-ish?

After a couple lower-priority lineups on Premiere Monday and Tuesday, ABC begins the high-stakes portion of its fall roll-out tonight. After the sixth season premiere of Modern Family, there's Black-ish, the first brand new fall family comedy that will be regularly scheduled as a Modern lead-out. We don't really know yet whether Black-ish will be as good as previous efforts like Happy Endings, but it may be one of the best prospects commercially if only for "fit" reasons. Will Black-ish be a post-Modern Family hit-ish? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 24, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Tuesday 9/23/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC had another really favorable set of adjustments, as Agents of SHIELD (2.1) went from the low end of its spring results to the high end, while Forever (1.8) actually went above the Monday preview. (That 1.5 Monday prelim really feels like a long time ago!) That shockingly put Forever ahead of a downward-adjusting Person of Interest (1.7). And Chicago Fire (2.6) dropped a tenth behind last year's series high.

• A new spin-off didn't particularly charge up CBS' lineup. NCIS (2.9) improved somewhat on its spring ratings but was still nearly 20% behind last year's big premiere, and NCIS: New Orleans (2.5) had nearly full viewership retention but was down almost 15% from its lead-in among the demo. Throw in the return of Person of Interest (1.8), down a significant 22% year-to-year and the network was off by 19% from last year's premiere Tuesday.

• That left NBC's The Voice (4.0) and Chicago Fire (2.7) free to win Premiere Tuesday in runaway fashion. After dropping much more on Monday, The Voice was down just 15% vs. last year's first Tuesday episode against far more manageable competition. And the NBC drama department keeps looking better; Chicago Fire preliminarily tied the series high 2.7 set on this night last year. NBC was down 11% year-to-year as a whole.

• ABC was a mixed bag with little interest in a second Dancing with the Stars results show (1.6), and Agents of SHIELD (1.9) was only able to get back to its normal delivery from the spring (even if it gets its usual finals uptick). However, the network was very much on the 10/9c map with the timeslot premiere of Forever (1.7). It took a viewership hit from the change in lead-ins but impressively held 100% of its Monday demo rating, and it looks like a potentially massive improvement on all the bombs ABC aired in the hour last season. Despite Forever's 31% gain at 10/9c, the network was still down 40% vs. last year's Premiere Tuesday (which featured SHIELD's 4.7 premiere).

• Fox's New Girl (1.3) and The Mindy Project (1.0) took almost the same week two drops as last year when all the competition arrived, and Utopia (0.8) was off by a similar percent. Fox was down 43% vs. last year's premiere Tuesday (with Utopia down over 50% and the comedies about -35%).

• So the big four as a whole were down by 25% in preliminaries. If Big Bang inflated the Monday number (-3%), SHIELD obviously deflated the Tuesday one.

Spotted Ratings, Weekend Roundup 9/19-9/20/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• On Friday, CBS got exceptional numbers by Friday standards with a special edition of Big Brother (1.6), bumped to the night by CBS' Sunday premieres. (I've seen conflicting reports about whether this was a clip show, so I'm not sure whether to mark it as a repeat; anyone know for sure?) Fox tried to keep Utopia (0.5) away by airing it at 9/8c, but it was still two tenths below last week's Friday premiere.

• Both football networks were up on Saturday, with ABC's Clemson/Florida State nailbiter (2.6) a particular highlight. It doubled last week's rating.

• I've caught up on the full tables for pre-premiere week. I'm not bumping all those posts, but you can find them by scrolling down a bit on the sr label. The True numbers on these posts still use the 2013-14 formula, so for early 2014-15 series they will vary drastically from what's posted in the Vault.

The Question, Tuesday 9/23/14: Will NCIS: New Orleans Ratings Geaux High?

Tonight, CBS has its third drama premiere in three nights. The Sunday and Monday efforts may have been somewhat experimental scheduling-wise, but NCIS: New Orleans is a good old-fashioned spin-off placed right after its mother program. It seems like a decent bet for success, but it will face more drama competition (from Agents of SHIELD) than NCIS: Los Angeles used to in this slot, and it's leading out of an NCIS mothership that just took its biggest seasonal drop in series history. Will NCIS: New Orleans ratings geaux high? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 23, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Monday 9/22/14

WHAT MATTERS: 

• FINALS UPDATE: By far the most significant finals changes were two-tenth upticks for both of the ABC series, which seems to meaningfully change the feel for both. Dancing with the Stars (2.2) now finds itself just a single tenth behind last year's premiere Monday rating. And it's just two tenths behind last Monday's premiere, which is a pretty fantastic hold against this influx of competition. And Forever (1.7) seems at least somewhat more hopeful for its move to Tuesday than it did this morning. Also, Gotham and Scorpion finished in a tie at 3.2, and the big four finished just 3% behind last year's premiere Monday (or just 2% including the CW).

• If there was one network for whom the premiere Monday news was pretty much all positive, it was definitely CBS, as The Big Bang Theory (5.3 at 8:00, 5.4 at 8:30) made a major splash in its return to Monday at 8/7c. Considering it was a new night, more competition than the show has faced in years, and there had been some concerning repeat ratings late in the summer, to be within 10% of last year's premiere hour (5.5/6.1) is a big win for Big Bang. That helped vault Scorpion (3.3) to a very good premiere sampling, and it didn't even drop that much at the half (prelim 3.4/3.1). CBS then wrapped up with an hour of Under the Dome (1.8) at that series' biggest rating in over two months. CBS was about 30% ahead of premiere Monday last year, though obviously Big Bang distorts that comparison somewhat.

• The other networks were mostly good news/bad news. Fox had a fine debut from Gotham (3.2), which they will probably fairly OK with given their current plight, though it was a bit below last year's pre-premiere Sleepy Hollow launch (3.5). As for season two of Hollow (2.0), the limited series sophomore slump trend seems to be alive and well; the show opened at a new series low despite its biggest lead-in ever. This was 43% behind last year's series premiere and 35% behind the premiere week episode.  Overall, Gotham's gains and Hollow's big losses cancelled out, putting Fox just above even vs. premiere Monday 2013.

SpotVault - Gotham (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

Gotham

Mondays, 8/7c, Fox

SpotVault - Scorpion (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

Scorpion

Mondays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - The Big Bang Theory (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

The Big Bang Theory

Mondays, 8/7c and Thursdays, 8/7c, CBS

SpotVault - Sleepy Hollow (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

Sleepy Hollow

Mondays, 9/8c, Fox

SpotVault - The Blacklist (NBC) - 2014-15 Ratings

The Blacklist

Mondays, 10/9c and Thursdays, 9/8c, NBC

SpotVault - The Voice (NBC) - Fall 2014 Ratings

The Voice

Mondays and Tuesdays on NBC

SpotVault - Forever (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Forever

Tuesdays, 10/9c, ABC

SpotVault - Madam Secretary (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

Madam Secretary

Sundays, 8/7c, CBS

SpotVault - The Good Wife (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

The Good Wife

Sundays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - 60 Minutes (CBS) - 2014-15 Ratings

60 Minutes

Sundays, 7/6c, CBS

The Question, Monday 9/22/14: Will Gotham Fly Much Higher than Scorpion?

Opening night for the 2014-15 TV season is probably one of the highest-stakes evenings for broadcast TV drama in quite some time. There's a new drama premiering in each hour (including ABC's Forever at 10/9c), plus the returns of two very important sophomores (Fox's Sleepy Hollow at 9/8c and NBC's The Blacklist at 10/9c). But for Question purposes, I'm boiling it down to the two most interesting. Fox's Batman prequel Gotham takes on more importance almost daily as the rest of the once-proud Fox schedule crumbles around it. And CBS has blown up decades of two-hour Monday comedy tradition for the action procedural Scorpion, which is getting a huge promotional push and a The Big Bang Theory lead-in tonight. Will Gotham fly much higher than Scorpion? That's The Question for Monday, September 22, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 9/21/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• CBS had broadcast primetime to itself from an entertainment standpoint, but the early numbers don't look like anything special. The premiere of Madam Secretary predictably skewed quite ancient, with 14.75 million viewers and a 2.0 demo rating (putting less than 20% of its audience in the key demo). The Good Wife had over 11 million and a 1.4 in the finals. CBS got a very good situation with its late afternoon Super Bowl rematch going into overtime; the network averaged a 10.2 at 8:00 and 10.3 at 8:30, then 60 Minutes dropped to a 4.4 at 9:00 and 2.8 at 9:30.

The New and Improved 2014-15 SpotVault - Phase I

Welcome to the 2014-15 regular season! The SpotVault ratings archive you know and love will be undergoing a few substantial upgrades this season, but it's going to be a work in progress over the course of the fall. Here are some quick notes about what's getting installed this week along with what's to come.

The Question, Sunday 9/21/14: Will Madam Secretary Negotiate a Demo Audience?

Knowing that their new drama Madam Secretary has a rather old-skewing concept, CBS scheduled it on Sunday at 8/7 in an attempt to capture as many eyeballs as possible from the huge late-afternoon NFL lead-ins. Since the network does not have a national late-afternoon game next week, that means Madam Secretary premieres on the eve of the official season, and then will have to cross its fingers for a good hold with much less support and more competition next week. Will Madam Secretary negotiate a demo audience? That's The Question for Sunday, September 21, 2014.

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 10/9c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Sunday 10/9c hour. CBS has chosen its latest procedural to endure the terrible overrun-riddled hour, and it's their oldest scripted series CSI.

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 10/9c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to Saturday 10/9c, in which CBS adds original 48 Hours to the mix of repeats and football.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/18/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• If last week represented the best CBS can expect from Thursday Night Football, last night (4.5 on CBS + NFLN combined) probably represented the worst. Not only did Bucs/Falcons look like the Thursday package's worst game going in, but the game quickly became a massive blowout.

• In its last opportunity before real competition from ABC and Fox arrives, The Biggest Loser (1.3) took a pretty disappointing week two drop. It led into a The Mysteries of Laura (0.8) pilot encore.

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 10/9c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Friday 10/9c hour. NBC populated the hour with low-cost Grimm companion dramas in 2013-14, but they're aiming higher this fall with the more normal-budgeted comic book drama Constantine.

SpotVault - Red Band Society (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

Red Band Society

Wednesdays, 9/8c, Fox

SpotVault - The Mysteries of Laura (NBC) - 2014-15 Ratings

The Mysteries of Laura

Wednesdays, 8/7c, NBC

SpotVault - The Mindy Project (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

The Mindy Project

Tuesdays, 9:30/8:30c, Fox

SpotVault - New Girl (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

New Girl

Tuesdays, 9/8c, Fox

SpotVault - Sons of Anarchy (FX) - Fall 2014 Ratings

Sons of Anarchy

Tuesdays, 10/9c, FX

SpotVault - Boardwalk Empire (HBO) - Fall 2014 Ratings

Boardwalk Empire

Sundays, 9/8c, HBO

SpotVault - Haven (Syfy) - 2014-15 Ratings

Haven

Fridays, 10/9c, Syfy

SpotVault - Dancing with the Stars (ABC) - Fall 2014 Ratings

Dancing with the Stars

Mondays, 8/7c, ABC

SpotVault - The Biggest Loser (NBC) - Fall 2014 Ratings

The Biggest Loser

Thursdays, 8/7c, NBC

SpotVault - Hell's Kitchen (Fox) - Fall 2014 Ratings

Hell's Kitchen

Wednesdays, 8/7c, Fox

SpotVault - Utopia (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

Utopia

Tuesdays and Fridays on Fox