Go to desktop version

The Latest

Monday, June 9, 2014

A18-49+: The Deeper Networks Post


The A18-49+ theme posts combine all of the individual season info in one specific category, allowing us to line up the last eleven seasons of collective Live+SD ratings declines on a relatively apples-to-apples basis. In future seasons I will update these pages with the new season numbers.

The first networks post looked at eleven years of the network race using what I consider the best available measurement of network strength: an average of their original non-sports series ratings. This one adds three additional angles: it widens to overall ratings (including repeats, sports and specials), then narrows in on scripted originals, then breaks the scripted originals into the still narrower comedies and dramas. I don't like any of these on their own as much as all originals, but they help supplement/explain those basic numbers. For today, we're just doing the big four. The netlets may be added in a future year, but they probably wouldn't be that interesting anyway (as they have little to no sports/comedies).



Overall Ratings (Original Series + Repeats, Sports, Specials)


Year
ABC
CBS
NBC
Fox
Overall
vs.O
Overall
vs.O
Overall
vs.O
Overall
vs.O
2001-0284+291-2124-493+2
2002-0385-288-3103-1198-11
2003-0480-396+0105-1298-7
2004-0592-498-787-1199-2
2005-0697-493-1280-4101-12
2006-0790-1794-579-3104-18
2007-0886-1384-979-8120-9
2008-0988-1296-884+2110-10
2009-1086-1399-789+11115-8
2010-1186-1296-1082+5119-9
2011-1286-10104-1190+13113-6
2012-1385-8114+496+398-8
2013-1487-997-9122+19107+13
2014-1597-6104+4117+1787-7
2015-1692-4120+18117+1498-1
2016-1797-1112+12135+24117+29
2017-1897-1103+4161+51100+9
2018-1996+0120+23126+17121+21

*- includes Super Bowl
**- includes Winter Olympics

"vs.O" is the difference between the overall rating and the originals-only rating used in the first networks post. In other words, it measures how much all the "other stuff" affects the network's overall rating.

The main takeaway here is the increased impact of sports. In the first half of the table, not a single network ever finished with a higher overall average than original average. The streak finally ended in 2008-09, when a distant fourth-place entertainment network got a two-point boost from both Sunday Night Football AND the Super Bowl.

These days, the huge sports events are game-changers in the network rankings, frequently making a double-digit difference compared to the surrounding years. Even in a year when Fox's entertainment department declined by twelve points, it was up by nine overall because of a huge boost from the "other stuff," namely the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl.

By itself, NBC's Sunday Night Football more than cancels out all the other filler NBC airs (see 2012-13). Throw in a Super Bowl or an Olympics, and NBC is now regularly capable of a double-digit boost relative to their entertainment department. The 2017-18 season was truly staggering, as NBC got both the Super Bowl and the Olympics (plus four more years of sports ratings becoming more favorable in general).



Scripted Originals Only

Year
ABC
CBS
NBC
Fox
Scripted
vs.O
Scripted
vs.O
Scripted
vs.O
Scripted
vs.O
2001-0294+1294+0145+1796+4
2002-0387094+3125+1193-15
2003-0479-496+1122+584-21
2004-05108+12113+7103+685-16
2005-06114+13110+590+691-22
2006-07117+10104+490+999-23
2007-08102+4101+896+8104-25
2008-09105+5107+483+1104-16
2009-10102+4106+079+2100-23
2010-11100+3109+375-2101-26
2011-12106+10121+666-1198-21
2012-1398+5114+576-1787-19
2013-1499+3110+483-2084-10
2014-15107+4103+380-2093-1
2015-1697+0102+089-1396-3
2016-1796-298-299-1289+1
2017-1897-196-299-1194+3
2018-1994-192-597-1197-2

"vs.O" is the difference between the all-originals average and the scripted-only average. In other words, it measures "the scripted effect"; how much scripted programs affect the original series average if you start with all originals.

Since the rise of Dancing with the Stars and the resurgence of The Bachelor on ABC, both ABC and CBS have been pretty consistent; their original average is roughly five points lower than their scripted-only average. Therefore, the last seven years or so have tracked very closely with the scripted programming trajectories. ABC's slow decline since the peak years of Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy is reflected in the scripted numbers, while CBS' brief surge to dominance in 2011-12 and disappointment since were also scripted-driven.

Fox and NBC are much more driven by unscripted developments. Fox got a reliable 20-point boost from Idol for about nine years. Its prime period occurred when it was able to combine the Death Star with scripted programming that was just a bit above average. And the fall of Fox in recent years has also been largely unscripted-driven. In fact, the Fox of 2012-13 and 2013-14 has scripted programming that's very reminiscent of Fox just before it entered its prime (2003-06), and Empire made it even better in 2014-15. The difference is that Idol isn't worth 20 points anymore.

Meanwhile, NBC is now getting about the same-sized boost from two yearly cycles of The Voice that Fox long received from Idol, a boost that takes a fourth-place scripted network and makes it a fairly close second among all originals. NBC of 2013-14 and 2014-15 looks quite similar to Fox a decade earlier. In the three years since then, The Voice has stayed big, but it's not as huge a boost to the average as the scripted department has finally started to catch up.



Comedy/Drama Split

Year
ABC
CBS
NBC
Fox
Comedy
Drama
Comedy
Drama
Comedy
Drama
Comedy
Drama
2001-029196125851751339795
2002-0388851069015611410982
2003-048275110931341178979
2004-0568136102116941057791
2005-065913588116948972105
2006-0757129101104869186104
2007-0869107115991059497110
2008-096511111510510279101104
2009-1090105124102987387106
2010-11107981331039469102101
2011-12119101175108766110494
2012-13979916710271799380
2013-14941011459768868087
2014-151131051469566838996
2015-161089214395659377107
2016-171138612889841019089
2017-181248513086891018698
2018-199395137827310210594

During NBC's darkest days in the late aughts, comedy was actually a notable kinda-bright spot (often trailing only CBS). The darkness was mostly about the network's massive incompetence in drama development. Aside from a couple slightly positive years lining up with the first two seasons of Heroes (2006-08), it was a pretty consistent collapse from 2003-04 to 2011-12. Now, the network has The Voice and is getting its act together to some degree in drama. But despite a positive trend overall, the comedy department (pretty steady for quite awhile after the last Friends year in 2003-04) totally fell apart.

NBC has had some comedy redemption in the last couple years, led by Superstore and Will and Grace. Getting back to even a somewhat respectable level (if still wayyy behind ABC and CBS) has been a key piece leading to the network's recent dominance in entertainment programming as a whole.

For additional yearly/theme recaps and more on A18-49+, check out the A18-49+ Index.

© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.