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Tuesday, May 20, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 5/20/14: Will Dancing and The Voice Drown Each Other Out?


The last two days of the 2013-14 regular season will feature TV's two biggest head-to-head reality "rivalries" with dueling finales. What makes this kinda interesting is that while these two pairs always battle each other for most/all of their normally-scheduled seasons, they've actually never had overlapping season finales. It starts tonight with two hours of Dancing with the Stars vs. The Voice. Their finales always avoid each other in the fall because the seasons are of different length, and in the spring because NBC's never positioned a Voice season to close right at the end of the regular season... until now. Will Dancing and The Voice drown each other out? That's The Question for Tuesday, May 20, 2014.

The Voice Recent Season Ends Dancing with the Stars Recent Ends
3.8 -> 4.2 -> 4.9 (fall 2012)
3.3 -> 3.7 -> 4.4 (spring 2013)
3.5 -> 3.3 -> 4.0 (fall 2013)
3.0 -> 3.1 (prelim) -> (?) (spring 2014)
2.4 -> 2.7 -> 3.0 (fall 2012)
2.0 -> 2.6 -> 2.7 (spring 2013)
2.0 -> 2.2 -> 2.4 (fall 2013)
2.3 -> 2.5 (prelim) -> (spring 2014)

The above numbers are the last two performance weeks (Monday), then the Tuesday finale.

I was gonna do a spread here, but I decided the more interesting issue in this case is how much they hurt each other collectively. Under normal circumstances, I'd follow the recent year-to-year trends and say The Voice goes about 15% behind last spring's finale (to about a 3.7) while Dancing with the Stars would roughly match last spring's 2.7. But since both have to deal with the other for the first time, that should limit their ability to spike compared to previous seasons; we saw that at play a bit last night as neither grew much for the performance finale. I say it takes the combined total about 5% behind what they'd "normally" do.

Dancing with the Stars PLUS The Voice Over/Under: 6.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. Result is a sum of show finals, each individually rounded to one decimal point.

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