CW True Power Rankings, May 2014

The upfront extravaganza is finally here! Every weekday for the next three weeks, this blog will have a meaty piece of coverage surrounding the annual schedule releases. It starts this week with the season's final edition of the True Power Rankings, the SHOW-centric half of the upfront preview, digging deep into the merits of individual shows by network. Next week come the Upfront Questions, the SCHEDULE-centric look ahead to upfront week. The following week, the schedules come out, and with them come the Upfront Answers.

The True/A18-49 averages cover the last one-third of aired episodes this season through April 27, rounded up.

Other May True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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The CW		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Big Four
1	The Vampire Diaries	1.09	0.89	58%	-17%	7
2	Arrow	0.93	0.79	44%	-13%	7
3	Supernatural	0.93	0.91	57%	+11%	7
4	The Originals	0.88	0.76	57%		7

The CW has had a pretty rough spring, and the big four have been no exception. But isn't this just what happens in spring? Or does this go beyond normal spring declines? A quick analysis in each case:

The Vampire Diaries: 1.30 True average before the new year, 1.12 True since. More specifically, a sub-1 True average over the last three weeks. This one is pretty worrisome. There's no realistic way of doing this that would grade the consistent 1.3's in the fall and the 0.7/0.8's of late as the same show. And this has been gradual across the season, not a sudden plunge off a cliff; there was a 0.9/1.0/1.1 stretch in the middle. If I had to pick one show that seems to have been legitimately damaged across the season, I'd pick TVD. It still grades as the network's strongest show, but the margin is thinner.

Arrow: 1.04 True before the new year, 0.96 True since. Not good, but not as extreme as TVD. The higher-end March and April True scores at least match up with the lower-end fall True scores, which is certainly not the case with TVD.

Supernatural: 0.98 True before the new year, 0.95 True since. The 0.7 demo rating (and 0.73 True) on April 15 was on a TVD level of weirdness, but based on the last couple weeks it seems to have been a pure blip. (Throw out that point and SPN has a 0.98 True since the new year, matching its fall average.)

The Originals: 0.98 True before the new year, 0.91 True since. This one declined in raw numbers from a 1.1 as late as January 21 all the way to an ugly 0.6 three months later. But the formula didn't think most of this drop was all that severe. The 0.7 raw ratings on 3/18 and 4/15 had True scores that roughly matched the lowest Trues in the fall (with 0.9 raw ratings). There was no such consolation for the 0.6 on April 22, which was decidedly weaker than any previous point. But given The Originals' bounce-back to 0.8 this week, I'm hopeful that 0.6 was just a blip along the lines of Supernatural's 0.7.

How meaningful is any of this? Maybe there's some sort of tweak to the formula that could account for "resiliency," because it seems like a lot of older-skewing shows hold up better late in the season, and thus rise in True. Shows across Fox and the CW seem to decline in True. Perhaps the formula should "allow" younger-skewing shows to drop more across the season. I don't know how big this adjustment should be, so the main point for today is that we can at least measure these drops relative to each other. The Vampire Diaries seems to have gotten genuinely weaker, Supernatural seems totally undamaged, and the other two are somewhere in the middle.

The CW		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Race for Returnee #5 (And #6?)
5	Whose Line Is It Anyway?	0.67	0.43	39%	-49%	3
6	Reign	0.61	0.54	47%		7
7	The 100	0.56	0.55	39%		2

Reign has undergone its own bout of late-season softness. Most of what it's done lately still roughly matches up in True with some of the lowest early fall results, so it's more like an Arrow/Originals than a Vampire Diaries in that respect. But this one seems more disappointing because it seemed to be picking up some steam literally just a month ago (four of its five biggest True scores were in the month of March).

Could this Secret Circle-esque April slide mean that The 100 could beat out Reign for the fifth returnee slot on the first four nights of the week? It's possible, but I'm not heavily inclined in either direction yet. The 100 is a likely renewal, but it still skews quite old by this network's standards, so the network may be a bit more down on it than the perception. If it can hang at 0.6 and maybe see Reign post another 0.4 for good measure, I could get more on board with The 100.

But there's also another possibility: both get on the first four nights. The network's usually had three new series on the first four nights in recent years, but with Reign and The 100 both viable options, the network's got more depth than usual. This #5 and #6 seem at least a bit stronger than what was actually their #5 option from last year (Beauty and the Beast). They also have fewer pilots, and the reception to Supernatural spin-off Bloodlines seems to have been more negative than expected. So we'll see.

As a general principle, I don't see much of a need for either of these shows to leave their current timeslots if they return in the fall. The big four are tightly packed enough size-wise that stability is better than worrying about "wasting" one of the biggest lead-ins. But I could see an exception if both make it to the fall first four nights. Not sure I'd want to have sophomores after both of the most entrenched anchors, so I could see one of them ending up on Monday. (Supernatural into The 100?)

The CW		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Low-Priority Candidates
8	America's Next Top Model	0.49	0.42	46%	-16%	5
9	The Tomorrow People	0.45	0.40	47%		7
10	The Carrie Diaries	0.40	0.34	48%	-32%	5
11	Star-Crossed	0.37	0.33	42%		4
12	Hart of Dixie	0.36	0.29	46%	-36%	7
13	Beauty and the Beast	0.34	0.30	48%	-53%	6

Probably only one renewal for the five scripted shows here, and Hart of Dixie seems the heavy favorite. Call it syndication or the CW's final season tendency. Just don't call it a ratings advantage, because there isn't one.

To revisit my The Carrie Diaries scenario from February: Not a single person that I've seen with any insider-y connections gives the show a chance, so it'd be pretty stupid to come out and say it's gonna happen. Would the CW have renewed TCD last year if they had The 100? Probably not, and that's basically the situation that The 100's decent numbers have left TCD in this year. (And even The Tomorrow People on Monday has remained a higher-grading alternative in True.) Because of its solid 18-34 numbers, I'm still higher on the show than most, and if the non-ratings factors didn't exist, I'd rather have it than Hart of Dixie. But I think it can only sneak through if the HoD renewal blows up somehow, and/or the network puts an even more extreme than expected premium on younger demos.

Enjoyed this "most surprising renewal" poll at TVBTN. It really got me thinking. But Beauty and the Beast, which EW continues to believe in, would perhaps top 'em all (well, maybe except for 'Til Death). I mean, even a fringe candidate like The Tomorrow People was able to step in, later in the season and with a weaker 8:00 lead-in, and go a tenth higher than BatB. Come on! This show would be some genuine evidence for those that think ratings don't matter anymore.

The CW		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Dunzo
14	Nikita	0.26	0.20	36%	-32%	2