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Thursday, April 17, 2014

The Question, Thursday 4/17/14: Will the #ScandalFinale Blow Up?


When Scandal returned from its long winter hiatus, it was tied out to the hundredth with two-time reigning champ NCIS as the top drama on broadcast TV. But while Daylight Saving viewing depressions have battered NCIS' ratings in the spring, Scandal has remained stout in the 10/9c hour and pretty much wrapped up #1 broadcast drama honors for the first time. The only bad news for ABC is that the season must end tonight at just 18 episodes due to Kerry Washington's pregnancy. Will the #ScandalFinale blow up? That's The Question for Thursday, April 17, 2014.


Scandal This Season
3.6 (premiere, 10/3/13)
3.4 (spring premiere, 2/27/14)
3.03 (average)
2.9 -> 3.1 -> 2.9 -> 3.0 (last four weeks)

Neither of Scandal's previous finales are particularly helpful here. In season one, it had a 20%ish spike (1.9 -> 2.3), but at that point it was really still riding the Grey's Anatomy coattails, and that show had a similar growth. Scandal will not pick up any benefits from a Grey's finale bounce tonight, as that show continues airing into May. In season two, it had a major spike in the penultimate week and then didn't even grow week-to-week for the finale (3.2 -> 3.2) on an uber-crowded night. Maybe the best comp is the fall 2013 run, which had the same penultimate rating (3.0) as this spring run and went up to 3.2 for the fall finale. I expect a season finale to go up by a tick or two more than a midseason finale.

Over/Under: 3.35.

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