NBC True Power Rankings, May 2014

The upfront extravaganza is finally here! Every weekday for the next three weeks, this blog will have a meaty piece of coverage surrounding the annual schedule releases. It starts this week with the season's final edition of the True Power Rankings, the SHOW-centric half of the upfront preview, digging deep into the merits of individual shows by network. Next week come the Upfront Questions, the SCHEDULE-centric look ahead to upfront week. The following week, the schedules come out, and with them come the Upfront Answers.

The True/A18-49 averages cover the last one-third of aired episodes this season through April 27, rounded up.

Other May True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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NBC Comedies		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Renewal Candidates
1	About a Boy	1.51	1.80	34%		3
2	Growing Up Fisher	1.49	1.50	33%		3
3	Parks and Recreation	1.42	1.07	51%	-28%	6
4	Community	1.27	0.98	46%	-13%	4

I said this when the shows had been on the air for two weeks, and it has continued to hold true two months later: if you flipped About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher, the ratings would almost exactly flip. They've behaved just as you'd expect from one show airing two back-to-back episodes with a Voice lead-in. There are a couple times that Fisher has looked like the slightly stronger show (April 8 when it got a 1.5 with AaB at just 1.7) and a couple when About a Boy has looked like the slightly stronger show (its 1.9 last week), but over a larger span there is simply no meaningful separation.

On the surface, this seems like a good thing for Growing Up Fisher. If About a Boy is as safe as the buzz (and its raw numbers) would suggest, then Fisher should be every bit as safe. Maybe that's the case. But it also works the other way: there's no real ratings reason to favor Fisher over Boy. Since NBC originally favored About a Boy (giving it the direct post-Voice slot), that means it will probably continue getting the preferential treatment. Will that be the difference between renewal and cancellation, between fall and midseason, or between fall timeslots? Gun to my head, I'd say the shows have held up enough that it means Boy to fall and Fisher to midseason, but I still think Fisher could easily get outright cancelled. These shows have little DVR interest and skew pretty old, so NBC may not project them favorably in some replacement role without Voice support.

That brings us to Community and the quest for #sixseasonsandamovie. Other than noting that it skews a lot younger than About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher, the only real value I can add to the number above is to read the Parks and Recreation tea leaves. It would've been possible to read Parks' early renewal as a good sign for Community; if that was such an easy renewal, then Community likely clears the bar as well. But I wasn't buying it, because Parks still could've slid into the same winter/spring replacement role that Community has long occupied. That means no need for Community. With About a Boy and Fisher representing viable comedy renewals (well, at least relative to NBC's last couple classes), it should not be assumed that Community will get there just because it got there in past years.

But there's been another development in Parks land: at the end of the finale, the promo guy announced the show would return in the fall. Maybe this is not as big a deal as I'm making it, but it inclines me to lean toward renewal for Community. Parks won't be the returnee midseason replacement, so Community could take that role yet again. This isn't a lock by any means; networks usually don't hold multiple returning comedies for midseason, so maybe Growing Up Fisher ends up taking away that slot from Community next season. But if NBC sees enough in Parks to give it a fall slot (admittedly a debatable decision), I'll give Community a slightly above 50/50 shot.

To sum up: I've got both Growing Up Fisher and Community slightly above 50/50 individually. That implies both surviving is more likely than neither surviving, but it's still pretty likely that one of the two is axed. I just don't know which to commit to. True says Fisher, but the deeper stuff works in Community's favor.

NBC Comedies		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The "Broad"
5	Sean Saves the World	1.04	0.86	39%		5
6	The Michael J. Fox Show	0.99	0.80	40%		5
7	Welcome to the Family	0.99	0.90	45%		1

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NBC Dramas		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Renewed (or Really Should Be)
1	The Blacklist	2.50	2.77	34%		7
2	Law and Order: SVU	2.04	1.76	34%	+3%	7
3	Chicago Fire	1.95	1.83	35%	+12%	7
4	Grimm	1.89	1.38	33%	-10%	6
5	Chicago PD	1.70	1.55	33%		4

In terms of to move or not to move, most of these are pretty simple. NBC's basically admitted that The Blacklist is on the move; does it get a major vote of confidence as a Thursday 9/8c centerpiece leading into something new? Does it go Thursday 10/9c if NBC takes still another stab at two-hour comedy? Or is it incorporated somewhere like Wednesday, ducking CBS' Thursday Night Football? I'd put it on Thursday, though Wednesday might be a worthier consideration if the SVU renewal doesn't work out.

I thought Chicago Fire was the least likely NBC drama to move last season, and it did move! (Though to be fair, almost everything moved.) This year, I once again think it absolutely shouldn't move. It does a good job where it is, and will continue to do so no matter what they throw into the 9/8c hour to benefit from The Voice.

Grimm is a show that's better-utilized on Friday than it would be anywhere else. Next!

Chicago PD. Well, ideally I'd keep the SVU/PD pair together, because this show seems a notch below the other drama early renewals. If SVU is gone, I don't love any idea. It doesn't seem strong enough to launch a newbie. I guess they would leave it where it is and do some major overhaul in the first two Wednesday hours?

That brings us to the only member of this tier that's not renewed: fifteenth-year Law and Order: SVU, which appears to be stuck in cost-related negotiations. It's not surprising that this situation has gotten a lot of comparison with the cancellation of the Law and Order mothership in 2010, since Dick Wolf was at the center both times.

But the situations are pretty different ratings-wise. L&O averaged a 1.79 demo in its weeknight run in 2010. SVU's averaging a 1.83 demo on a weeknight in 2013-14. What's the difference in those nearly identical raw ratings after four years of collective decline? L&O in season twenty was pretty much a flop (64 A18-49+ for the Monday episodes). NBC didn't terribly mind airing it because the network was such a massive mess. But it was not a meaningful scheduling piece for the network by that point. The primary motivation to renew was record book reasons; season 21 would've put it past Gunsmoke for most in primetime drama history. And apparently that was not motivation enough to make the money work.

SVU, on the other hand, is right on the cusp of being a league average show (95 A18-49+). It's the network's third-biggest scripted show, airing in what's still one of the tougher weeknight timeslots (though not as tough as it used to be). Losing SVU would do real damage to the network's schedule. I mean, I can't claim to be an authority in these situations, but I can at least say with some confidence that Dick Wolf's got a lot more leverage here than he did with L&O in 2010. It'd be kind of crazy if the show went away after it followed up a couple fairly weak seasons with such a solid rally this year.

NBC Dramas		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Bubble
6	Parenthood	1.56	1.23	40%	-31%	8
7	Revolution	1.39	1.28	35%	-47%	6
8	Crisis	1.23	1.00	31%		3
9	Believe	1.21	1.03	30%		3

Most of this stuff is still pretty much the same as in February. I'd still pick Parenthood as the clear favorite out of this foursome to snag a renewal. Best True score, best "bird in the hand," most critical acclaim, owned by NBC, etc. Though I'm doubtful that even it will score another full season order.

Revolution may sneak in, especially if SVU doesn't make it, but I put it below 50/50.

Believe is a long shot that survives only if NBC desperately wants to make a face-saving renewal out of the all-new Sunday lineup. Admittedly, this sounded less implausible when I first wrote it on Monday. After last week's episode adjusted from 1.2 down to 1.0, it's that much bigger of a reach. And Crisis is essentially tied with Believe now, which means it's probably behind Believe in the race for that long shot possibility. (Much like in the About a Boy/Growing Up Fisher comparison, NBC has a favorite... Believe, the one that got previewed after The Voice.)

NBC Dramas		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
Sub-Bubble, But Cheap...
10	Hannibal	1.17	0.80	41%	-30%	3
11	Dracula	1.09	0.88	41%		4

As I said in February, right before Hannibal premiered, a tie between these two would go to Hannibal because of its considerable advantage in acclaim/clout. It's a bit behind in raw numbers, but since it's later in the season I basically consider this a tie. True considers Hannibal a tiny bit ahead. That means I find it pretty unlikely NBC would renew Dracula and cancel Hannibal.

Is a renewal of both possible?! I'd be pretty surprised if it happens, at least on a regular season basis. It's not a given that another newbie would do better; remember how well Dracula premiered, and it ended up here. But as I said above, these are decidedly "sub-bubble" performers. Even if the shows are cheap, NBC ought to at least make some effort to do better.

I'd try something new on Friday at 10/9c in the fall, keeping Hannibal as the midseason option again. But it's still very possible that NBC follows the weak ratings, blows both up and does something different with the 10/9c hour. (Two more short-order newbies? Two-hour Dateline into Grimm? Revolution?!?!)

NBC Dramas		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
The Dunzo
12	Ironside	0.87	0.90	26%		2

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NBC Unscripted		True	A18-49	Skew	y2y	Counted Eps
1	The Voice Mon	3.49	3.43	37%	-16%	3
3	The Voice Mon Fall	3.43	3.45	40%	-9%	4
2	The Voice Tue	3.38	3.00	34%	-15%	3
4	The Voice Tue Fall	3.00	3.22	38%	-12%	5
5	The Biggest Loser	1.72	1.80	38%	-17%	5
6	Dateline Fri	1.68	1.28	25%	-1%	8
7	The Sing-Off	1.47	1.40	36%		3
8	Hollywood Game Night	1.32	1.03	39%	+2%	4
9	Dateline Wed	1.18	1.10	30%		1
10	American Dream Builders	0.74	0.60	32%		2

How worried should we be about The Voice? If you compare The Voice with the year-ago evenings, something I've seen done in some media, it looks like the series is experiencing an American Idol-esque collapse. Two weeks ago, the Monday/Tuesday ratings were down 35%/35% from the year-ago evenings. Last week, it was -39%/-32%. Ouch!

Fortunately, it's not quite that dire, as the "y2y" numbers above suggest. A key to remember with these talent shows is that the part of the season is at least as important as the time of year, as their ratings are disproportionately higher early on. And these two seasons started a month apart. So when doing these year-ago evening comparisons, this season's The Voice is being compared against a month earlier in last season, which will always exaggerate the size of the decline. But let's be clear: since this season is airing in a higher-viewed part of the year and launched after the Olympics, -16%/-15% is still not good. It likely ends up trailing the episodes that went deep into June last year. We're not getting into Idol territory, but if I'm NBC, I am getting a bit worried here. Not that there's really much they should do about it right now!

I said in February to keep The Biggest Loser off the fall schedule in favor of more scripted stuff. I'm still for that idea in principle, but there is one exception: if NBC's going to make The Blacklist the big Thursday centerpiece. In that case, I wouldn't mind having The Biggest Loser funneling some casual audience at 8/7c into The Blacklist. Otherwise, save it for The Voice's hiatus.