| How I Met Your Mother This Season | Notable Penultimate -> Series Finales |
| 3.7 (premiere, 9/23/13) 3.20 (average) 2.7 -> 2.9 -> 3.5 (last three weeks) | 3.5 -> 6.0 (ER, 4/2/09) (+71%) 4.3 -> 5.8 (Lost, 5/23/10) (+35%) 2.7 -> 3.2 (Desperate Housewives, 5/13/12) (+19%) 2.2 -> 2.9 (House, 5/21/12) (+32%) 2.3 -> 3.0 (The Office, 5/16/13) (+30%) 3.4 -> 5.3 (Breaking Bad, 9/29/13) (+56%) |
For comparison's sake, I throw out ER, which was drawing on a past audience that made the show top-5 for its first eight seasons, and Breaking Bad, which had the full promotional resources of an entire channel for the whole week leading into the finale. (HIMYM, on the other hand, doesn't even have the lead-in retrospective special that most of these shows did.) With those gone, the typical week-to-week growth for these finales is somewhere in the 30's percent. HIMYM is a stronger/hotter show than many of these were by the end, but it also doesn't have a huge former audience to bring back. A 30% week-to-week increase would be a 4.55, and a 40% week-to-week increase would be a 4.9. I don't have a compelling reason to go way outside of this range, but the titular event could drag it toward the upper end.
Over/Under: 4.85.
Just in case the finals are separated into 8:00 and 8:30 episodes, please note that we'll take the average of the two episodes' unrounded ratings.
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.
21 comments:
Under.
This is not Seinfeld of Friends. I mean, many people aren't aware show is on, let alone it's ending today. So I don't expect it leaping over 5.0, but I think it could be close to it, meaning I expect 4.7 or 4.8. Then under, but obviously am not very confident in it.
OVER.
I haven't watched in years and I'm coming back for the finale tonight.
Oof. I predicted 4.9 which is right about where the line is. I guess I'll stick exactly w/it and go over.
Under at 4.8
Its been on the air so long that many different sets of viewers have cycled in and out of watching it. From this large pool of viewers, I'd expect a lot will be invested in watching the finale. Personally I know a lot of people who stopped watching regularly a while back that will be tuning in (including me).
Over, I'm guessing low 5's.
HIMYM is young-skewing enough that I could see some of its audience being only intermittent viewers in the L+SD window, and I think that this sort of crowd will be driven into live viewing by the finale event feel, much like how sport draws in this demo for live viewing.
Over.
My initial feeling last week was a now pessimistic looking 4.5. But I'm buying into the theory of a bunch of old viewers coming back (I stopped watching during S5 but may be tempted by the finale) and going higher. Over!
Over all day!
Over
A very sad under. I love the show, but I doubt it breaks the big 5 again
I'll say Under at 4.7, which is what I thought at the beginning of the season.
It's true. Season 1 skewed older than the rest. Season 7 skewed younger. Which shows the audience has changed over time
Spotted set the line right where I believed it would be, tough decision.
Under at 4.8
I'm saying under. No chance it's breaking 5, but a good chance it'll be around 4.5.
Over. 5.0 or above.
Over.
I don't think it'll have the juice. Under.
This is a tough one. I really want at least the 8:30 half to close on an outright series high (meaning a 5.3). I agree with some posters about the cyclical audience (I have only been a live viewer for the last 3 seasons, but have seen the old episodes on Netflix). I also have a tendency to mis-estimate finale jumps. I am going to go 4.8 for the whole hour, so UNDER, but that is more optimistic than I was even this afternoon. I will say that the 8:30 half hour could go in the 5.0-5.2 range, nearing a series high if it is counted separately.
But, Under at a 4.8 for the hour
Not since ER have we seen a broadcast show's final season promoted this hard. Both CBS and the cast have not spared any expense in pushing HIMYM. That's going to pay off as people watch live instead of waiting a day or two.
Over.
I predicted a 5.2 at TVMI so have to go with the Over. As for how the series ended, I definitely feel satisfied. Already miss HIMYM.
I'm glad someone was!
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