The Question, Monday 3/17/14: Will a Dancing Premiere Still Star Against the Voice?

Tonight, ABC goes out of Bachelor mode and back into Dancing with the Stars mode, a switch that has in recent years become a ratings downgrade (at least in the demo). Still, the fall season was pretty positive for Dancing, as it took only a single-digit year-to-year drop following several seasons of 20%+ declines. Its last couple premieres have benefited because the show got a one-week head start on The Voice, but The Voice's February return this year means DWTS has nowhere to hide this time. Will a Dancing premiere still star against The Voice? That's The Question for Monday, March 17, 2014.

Dancing with the Stars Recent Premieres

3.5 (3/19/12, vs. The Voice) (2.98 season avg) 2.5 (9/24/12, vs. The Voice) (2.26 season avg) 3.2 (3/18/13, NOT vs. The Voice) (2.29 season avg) 3.1 (9/16/13, NOT vs. The Voice) (2.16 season avg)

It's quite clear that The Voice's absence had a major impact on the show's last two premieres. Both seasons dropped roughly 25% (to a respective 2.4/2.3) the next week when The Voice arrived, and ended up averaging about the same number as the much lower-premiering fall 2012 season. And the franchise is much weaker in general than back when DWTS scored a 3.5 against The Voice in spring 2012. Since it's 18 months later, it's hard to see it exceeding that 2.5 from when it last premiered against The Voice in fall 2012.

Over/Under: 2.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.