EDIT: NBC called an extremely late audible to re-air the preview episodes tonight, so this game will not count for win/loss records. However, everyone who entered gets the usual 0.1 point for participation, so please check in with the thread before the deadline if you were going to enter.
| The Voice Last Night | Post-Olympic Previews |
| 4.7 (spring 2014 Mon. premiere (prelim)) 5.1 -> 4.7 (Mon -> Tue premieres, fall 2013) 4.8 -> 4.1 (Mon -> Tue premieres, spring 2013) | 2.2 (About a Boy, Sat 11:05, prelim 2.9 Olympics at 10:30) 2.0 (Growing Up Fisher, Sun 10:36, prelim 2.9 Olympics at 10:00) |
There will be a few viewers who sought out these comedy previews over the weekend and then don't show up for Tuesday. But the bottom line is that Tuesday 9/8c after The Voice is actually a much better slot than what About a Boy had after the Olympics on lower-viewed Saturday. If it's going to have much of a shot at long-term success, About a Boy really should go higher than its Saturday preview on this night. I'm not quite as confident about Growing Up Fisher pulling that off in the 9:30 slot, but it could be close.
EDIT: NBC called an extremely late audible to re-air the preview episodes tonight, so this game will not count for win/loss records. However, everyone who entered gets the usual 0.1 point for participation, so please check in with the thread before the deadline if you were going to enter.
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.
24 comments:
Oh man, I just realized I missed yesterday's question. Crap.
Anyway, I'll say 2.5 for About a Boy and 1.9 for Growing Up Fisher, so under.
After reviewing what Go On/TNN did in Fall 2012 with a similar lead-in number to what I'd expect tonight from The Voice, I feel both would need to overachieve.
Under
It's NBC comedies. Under.
I don't see it happening. Fisher, in particular, is going to be fish for the bear.
Under.
Over.
I expect The Voice at 4.3 or 4.4, About a Boy at 2.7 to 2.8, and Growing Up Fisher at 1.9 to 2.0. Like, 2x around 60% retention (for timeslot premiere only) .Then it's around 4.7, just enough for over.
On a side note, there will be the flood of female skewing shows tonight, all of it more or less young skewing. The Voice returns, and also New Girl, Originals and Supernatural (which Originals lead-in made into female-skewing show for perhaps the first time ever). On top of that, Glee returns to Tuesday, and there's special two-hour Bachelor episode. And let's not forget Pretty Little Liars that hits 2s in W18-34, and 3s in F12-34 (probably not so high today with increased competititon). Not all can be winners of this bloodbath. Perhaps in Live+7 they can, but in Live+SD there will be some losers, or at least disappointments.
But I'm not afraid for NBC, usually sports and reality competition shows came on top in such situations. Neither am for CBS, today they're (kinda unintentionally) counterprogramming. But CW lineup getting season-lows wouldn't surprise me a bit. Fox low too, but perhaps not season low, simply because all 3 shows already had so low season lows.
I feel like these two are going to disappoint. There just doesn't seem to be much interest surrounding them. Not even as much as Go On and The New Normal last fall. Still, they should do OK while The Voice is pulling its biggest numbers.
About a Boy - 2.5
Growing Up Fischer - 1.7
That's 4.2, so under.
I'm hoping for over, just because I am a huge fan of sitcoms in general, and want them to succeed.
OVER
About a Boy - 2.6
Growing Up Fisher - 2.0
4.6 - Over
Tough question:
- The Voice's huge lead-in tells me to go over.
- They are NBC comedies is a fact that tells me to go under.
AAB: 2.5 + GUF: 2.0, under by a hair;
Under. Voice isn't a good lead in for comedies.
Just because its NBC and comedy, UNDER.
Under.
The Voice-4.3(a 4.7 at 8:30)
About a Boy-2.7
Growing Up Fisher-1.9
Over, but barely over.
I'm just going to guess Under because that's usually how things go for NBC.
AaB: 2.4
GUF: 2.0
Well both new episodes are preempted to air the pilots, so I'm going under.
Under. I've been stung again by overconfidence in The Voice & The Blacklist last night. 4.3 for Voice, 2.7 for AAB, 1.8 for Fisher.
Schedule change an hour before airing. Who runs NBC, monkeys throwing darts?
Bets are void now. But maybe we'll get 0.1 points for participation in the game?
I was leaning Under.
Now I'd definitely say under (surprise, surprise).
I wonder how much this will affect the ratings? Since The Voice will have a higher audience than either of the Olympics showings, there's probably going to be a lot of people seeing the episodes for the first time anyway. My guess is they'll be at least a bit above normal "repeat" ratings.
Are the First Two Weeks posts going to be after two weeks of Tuesday originals, or after episode 2 airs next Tuesday?
I actually think this is a decent move, provided that it doesn't result in Fisher going low enough to hurt Fire
Probably two Tuesday originals, though if they completely bomb next Tuesday I may just pull an Intelligence and get the posts over with at that point.
Definitely above normal repeats. I wouldn't even expect them to be enormously lower than what the originals would've done, since a high percentage will be first-time live Voice viewers. But definitely lower enough to make the line unfair from a game perspective.
NBC screwed that one.
Both repeats combined earned a 4.3
"called an extremely late audible" now they have to hope it does not end on an interception.
Post a Comment