Other February True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
| NBC Comedies | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The "Niche" | |||||||
| 1 | Parks and Recreation | 1.49 | 1.30 | 50% | -26% | 4 | |
| 2 | Community | 1.18 | 1.10 | 47% | -13% | 2 | |
Robert Greenblatt basically guaranteed the renewal of Parks and Recreation at TCA. Doesn't seem that unreasonable. The more important question now, and it may be vital for Community, is in what capacity does Parks get renewed?
First, I will say is that I think the formula undercounts Community a bit. I can't really figure out why, but it seems like the viewing estimates in the Thursday 8/7c slot have been a little higher than they "should" be (often even higher than at 8:30). But even if it should be at more like a 1.3 True rather than a 1.2, either way it's pretty close to the same show as last year, stronger than all of NBC's new comedies and weaker than what we think of as the "bubble" dramas. Where it falls within that wide gap may not matter that much.
As always, Community's renewal will come down to scheduling and money concerns, not a precise ratings dissection. With so many NBC comedy failures, it's not unreasonable to think that it'll survive as the midseason emergency option yet again. But what it may really come down to is whether Parks ends up in that role instead. Airing Parks in the fall was pretty disastrous this year, as it provided no help whatsoever to the three highly incompatible newbies that followed. But it's not out of the question that it could happen again, since some of the network's comedy development seems to be shading slightly back in the direction of the Parks/Office/30 Rock generation. Parks paired with a Bill Cosby family comedy would be a waste, but Parks into an Ellie Kemper show produced by Tina Fey isn't that unreasonable.
The bottom line is that I don't think they'll bring back both for midseason replacement duty, unless they make the somewhat unconventional move of just treating the two shows as a single unit completely separate from all the other comedies. (It's rare, but not unprecedented; see ABC's Scrubs/Better Off Ted duo.) Generally, the point of midseason comedies is that they can mix in with whatever starts the fall. So I think the two most likely options are: 1) Parks is on in the fall and Community is the returnee backup, or 2) Parks is the returnee backup and Community is cancelled. Much more about development (and the new comedies to follow The Voice this spring) must be known before going deeper than that.
| NBC Comedies | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The "Broad" | |||||||
| 3 | Sean Saves the World | 1.04 | 0.86 | 39% | 5 | ||
| 4 | The Michael J. Fox Show | 0.99 | 0.80 | 40% | 5 | ||
| 5 | Welcome to the Family | 0.99 | 0.90 | 45% | 1 | ||
Not really "analysis" here, but seeing how tight as these shows ended up being, it makes me wish WTTF had stuck around a little longer (and, more importantly, had a better pairing than Parks). I kind of liked what aired, and it may well have ultimately been a better show than the other two.
| NBC Dramas | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Elite | |||||||
| 1 | The Blacklist | 2.77 | 2.70 | 35% | 5 | ||
| 2 | Law and Order: SVU | 1.96 | 1.82 | 34% | +5% | 5 | |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 1.92 | 2.02 | 35% | +18% | 5 | |
| 4 | Grimm | 1.77 | 1.45 | 33% | -13% | 4 | |
So how strong is The Blacklist? It's pretty strong. It didn't hit the True numbers of the late fall (it was more in line with the early- to mid-fall ones), though I have a feeling that may have been less about Voice "dependency" and more about the Monday Night Football competition adjustment from the fall being a bit overdone. (This adjustment is mostly there not because MNF is hugely formidable to broadcast shows but because it inflates the overall viewing; but the viewing didn't really come down in January when it was gone.)
Point is, in spite of a media often incapable of analyzing situations like what B-List had in January (the story was it "hit a series low!"), NBC should not be too hesitant about moving this show elsewhere for season two. I wouldn't really hesitate in moving it to Thursday, even with a more formidable Thursday Night Football in the mix. Football is just not as big a deal competitively as its ratings indicate.
As for the other three: I'm perfectly fine if they all stay put next fall. The "Grimm on another night" ship has beyond sailed, The Voice and ChiFi seem like a perfect duo to continue to hammock something new/new-ish at 9/8c, and amazingly, the even to slightly up SVU has somehow become a highly capable Wednesday centerpiece, even for this slightly stronger NBC. Ideally, you'd want your network's biggest shows to be stronger than SVU is, but NBC is still not in an "ideal" mode at this point. There's one other show that has much chance of doing better than SVU in this tough hour. If the pairing of The Blacklist and something new has to be on Wednesday because NBC fears football, so be it, but otherwise... SVU's looking fine.
| NBC Dramas | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Middle | |||||||
| 5 | Chicago PD | 1.68 | 1.70 | 32% | 2 | ||
| 6 | Parenthood | 1.58 | 1.26 | 41% | -30% | 5 | |
| 7 | Revolution | 1.43 | 1.40 | 35% | -50% | 5 | |
| 8 | Dracula | 1.09 | 0.88 | 41% | 4 | ||
Pretty wide range of shows here. I'm not as quick to anoint Chicago PD as some, because much of its "hold" in weeks three and four came against diminished competition. The fifth episode (a 1.7 against a strong original CSI) was the first performance of a caliber that would really make me a believer. But since it's only one week, I'm not penciling it onto the fall sked just yet. The indicators are positive.
On the other end of the spectrum, I'll keep the door slightly open for cheap co-production Dracula just until some Hannibal results are in. My uneducated take on Friday is that NBC wants to continue cycling two cheap short-order shows through that post-Grimm slot in a season, ideally a mix of one new and one returning. A ratings tie would go to Hannibal over Drac because of its hugely positive buzz. But if it comes in a lot weaker than Dracula, all bets are off. Dracula may have a shot in that case, or the show may have gotten weak enough that they just revert to all newbies.
In the middle are Parenthood and Revolution. Hasn't it kind of felt all season like it would ultimately come down to just one of these two for the last slot? ChiPD's apparent success means that could be where we are if the season ended today, and there's also the possibility that Believe and/or Crisis could topple both of 'em. Both shows actually stack up pretty well across the last several years in their respective timeslots, mostly because NBC has been a huge mess in those two hours. But for a network getting a bit stronger in general, these levels are just not high enough to make them locks.
Maybe neither or both survive. But if There Can Only Be One, I'm throwing my lot in with Parenthood. First, the formula actually says it's a stronger show than Revolution by about a tick and a half, which goes against the raw numbers (where Revolution has the tick and a half advantage). This might be a bit exaggerated, but I'm guessing not enough to make up the difference. Thursday 10/9c has less overall viewing, (at least in the fall/spring) much more drama competition, and Michael J. Fox as a lead-in probably fell well below what Revolution gets from local programming. Having been around for so long, there's probably less downside with Parenthood projecting forward to whatever low-priority timeslot the "winner" gets. It has more positive acclaim/buzz. And NBC owns it.
That being said, I will make this note for Revolution: like with Nashville, I wouldn't get caught up in the "renewal means you're priced into investing in 44 episodes" dogma. Its back-end future will mostly lie in newer-school arenas, not in airing five nights a week on broadcast. It wouldn't surprise me to see it (or Parenthood) get a shorter order.
| NBC Dramas | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Dunzo | |||||||
| 9 | Ironside | 0.87 | 0.90 | 26% | 2 | ||
| NBC Unscripted | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | |
| 1 | The Voice Mon Fall | 3.43 | 3.45 | 40% | -9% | 4 |
| 2 | The Voice Tue Fall | 3.00 | 3.22 | 38% | -12% | 5 |
| 3 | The Biggest Loser | 1.78 | 1.84 | 38% | -16% | 5 |
| 4 | Dateline Fri | 1.59 | 1.34 | 25% | -2% | 5 |
| 5 | The Sing-Off | 1.47 | 1.40 | 36% | 3 | |
| 6 | Hollywood Game Night | 1.34 | 1.40 | 37% | +6% | 2 |
| 7 | Dateline Wed | 1.18 | 1.10 | 30% | 1 | |
Really hoping that The Biggest Loser returns to its 2012-13 role, primarily airing between The Voice cycles. The network has enough respectable scripted options now that there's no need for it to steal an hour from the fall schedule, and the Olympics hiatus won't exist in 2014-15. NBC may not want to wait until late March on a Voice return again; so they may have to share schedule space for at least a little bit.
