 | The Amazing Race | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres February 23 | 2.38 | |||
| Best Case: Premiering against the Olympics Closing Ceremony was a risk, but it's going to pay off, because some major Olympics fatigue has been setting in the last couple days. Plus, this All-star edition has some faces who will spark interest. Drops just 7% to a 2.19, actually outrating the fall edition. Worst Case: The franchise showed some major leakage during the fall, and dueling with the Olympics just gives viewers another reason never to check in at all. All-star editions don't have a very good track record of late. Down nearly 30% to a 1.65 that could put it in some actual jeopardy. Likeliest: The Olympics competition won't hurt as much as we may have thought two weeks ago, but it certainly doesn't help. The larger concern is how far down the fall season was. It's tough to see this season vastly improving on the fall's year-to-year trend given the tougher circumstances. Almost -20% to a modest 1.91. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.51 | ||||
| 2.35 | Occupants | |||
| The Amazing Race Fall | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -10% | solid | 2.02 | 1.86 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.28 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.33 | +1% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Sunday 8:00 | ||||
 | The Voice | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres February 24/25 | 3.17 | |||
| Best Case: There are two clear advantages this season has going in: Olympics promotion and a more favorable placement on the calendar (meaning it won't run deep into June like last spring). Also, Shakira/Usher are more appealing than their fall counterparts. It starts with the same raw numbers as the spring 2013 season and drops less in the closing weeks, going +5% on each night to 4.35/3.99. Worst Case: NBC has been pretty lucky that real signs of burn-out haven't developed yet, running it two seasons a year as other shows in the category continue to crumble. The luck's got to run out, and this is the year. Down at least 20% to 3.25/2.97. Likeliest: The fall season was down about 10% y2y on both nights. It was trending worse than that toward the end of the fall. But with the advantages listed above compared to spring 2013, I don't see this being the big downturn season. I'll give it roughly -8% to a 3.80/3.45. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.32 | ||||
| 4.14 | Occupants | |||
| The Voice Mon Fall | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -14% | big hit | 4.07 | 4.01 | |
| True | Sitch | Hollywood Game Night | ||
| 4.00 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 1.42 | 1.37 | |
| 3.80 | +9% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | ||||
 | About a Boy (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 3.16 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres February 25 | 3.22 | |||
| Best Case: The preview got a 2.2 demo on a Saturday fully outside of primetime. The Olympics only averaged a 2.9 demo at 10:30, meaning its Tuesday slot after The Voice will actually be quite a bit better. And it had much better demo retention than viewer retention on Saturday, suggesting it wasn't totally mooching off the Olympics. There may be some real interest here. It's a very solid post-Voice option at a 2.70, doing even better than Go On, and it might even get the slot back in the fall. Worst Case: The reviews for the post-pilot episodes are not promising. It's a bit too low-key to match well with The Voice. And there's a lot of comedy competition. Quickly gets into first-half-hour-of-Ready for Love territory, but it does last longer... meaning a month or two. 1.45. Likeliest: I don't think this will settle at quite the same raw numbers that Go On did, but the good news for AaB is that it won't have the same opportunity (at least within season one) to get exposed without The Voice. By the back half of the run, it may not grade out much or any stronger than Community and Parks in True, but comedy-plagued NBC will likely ride the raw numbers to a renewal. 2.10. | Occupants | |||
| The Voice Tue | ||||
| 3.66 | 3.38 | |||
| The Biggest Loser | ||||
| 1.93 | 1.85 | |||
 | Growing Up Fisher (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 3.30 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres February 25 | 3.38 | |||
| Best Case: These comedies go up against two other comedy blocks, and in both of those the 9:30 show is a lot weaker. There's room for something at 9:30 to overachieve, so maybe Fisher can hold pretty much all of AaB. 2.00 and renewed. Worst Case: If AaB hits the worst case number above, it's hard to see Growing Up Fisher stopping the considerable bleeding. 1.05. Likeliest: I haven't seen the Olympic preview rating for this one yet, but I did watch the pilot. The blindness angle is unique, but it could wear thin in relatively short order. This will become a Goldbergs/Trophy Wife situation where the 9/8c show is stronger even after accounting for its big lead-in advantage. Fisher will end the run approaching Community/Parks-esque raw numbers, which won't be enough for season two. 1.47. | Occupants | |||
| The Voice Tue | ||||
| 3.66 | 3.38 | |||
| The Biggest Loser | ||||
| 1.93 | 1.85 | |||
 | Mind Games (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.17 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres February 25 | 0.98 | |||
| Best Case: Hey, at least ABC is giving it a post-Bachelor platform on premiere night! The good lead-in gets a surprisingly OK audience to show up. And Kyle Killen makes TV that the critics love, so a very high percentage sticks around for the subsequent weeks. At a 1.50, building on Trophy Wife, ABC sees more upside here than with something like Nashville and gives it another shot. Worst Case: The Bachelor will get a good demo rating, but it's also incompatible with this show, so it won't be of any real benefit. (We saw this with Body of Proof's post-Bachelor premiere last year.) It's been very established by now that Christian Slater is not a draw, and Trophy Wife coming in at 9:30 sure won't help. Another big-time 10/9c bomb at 0.60. Likeliest: I'm going to put its raw numbers a bit ahead of Killer Women because the timeslot will be less horrifying: no Olympics, more original lead-ins, much better premiere lead-in. But I just don't see much reason to believe this show will be able to overcome what is still a bad timeslot. Let's hope ABC knows something I don't. 0.82. | Occupants | |||
| Lucky 7 | ||||
| 1.00 | 0.94 | |||
| Primetime: What Would You Do? | ||||
| 0.87 | 1.01 | |||
| Killer Women | ||||
| 0.72 | 0.96 | |||
 | Survivor | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres February 26 | 1.89 | |||
| Best Case: The Wednesday competition keeps getting easier as American Idol keeps getting weaker. The Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty theme has some real resonance, and the show has unearthed some really memorable personalities out of this all new crop. A dead even 2.56. Worst Case: Hate to say it, but there's a reason Survivor is bringing back returning players so frequently. They can be a draw, and entirely new casts often end up quite dull. That happens big-time with this new cast. Down over 20% to a 2.00. Likeliest: Spring 2013 saw a smaller year-to-year drop than either of the last two fall seasons, so this season will catch up to the fall trajectory to some degree. And again, it's probably correct to bet on an all-new cast being a slight net negative, even if it's something I'd prefer they do more often. Down nearly 15% to a 2.20. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.47 | ||||
| 2.56 | Occupants | |||
| Survivor | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -9% | solid | 2.49 | 2.43 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.79 | -8% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.55 | +1% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
 | Mixology (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.99 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres February 26 | 2.01 | |||
| Best Case: Every post-Modern Family occupant has at least gotten a decent sampling. And this show's weird concept brings a reality show kind of urgency to the proceedings. Modern Family overachieves in the spring due to syndication exposure. 2.15 and ekes out a renewal. Worst Case: It is incompatible, and it is bad. And unlike Super Fun Night, it doesn't have a star who can move the needle significantly for the premiere. We may finally have our first DOA Modern lead-out. 1.30 and out of the slot pronto. Likeliest: Super Fun Night has recently been getting 1.5's after original Modern. Is it actually possible to do even worse? If any show could really put that to the test, this is the show. There were still some Rebel Wilson die-hards mixed into the SFN number, and it's hard to figure how Mixology will have any more appeal, so I say it does get a bit lower. It'll average a 1.45, at least starting off somewhat higher than recent SFN eps but nowhere near SFN's premiere. | Occupants | |||
| Super Fun Night | ||||
| 1.79 | 1.47 | |||
 | Hannibal | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres February 28 | 1.62 | |||
| Best Case: It had some dreadful numbers in the summer, but airing on Friday in the regular season is really no tougher, especially considering how awful and/or incompatible its season one lead-ins were. Throw in added compatibility with Grimm, plus the possibility that this may be good enough to pick up some fans via catch-up streaming the way cable serials do, and there's growth potential here. 1.30 and actually gets paired with Grimm in the fall next season. Worst Case: It ended the season on a 0.7 and a 0.8. That's probably about all it can hope for this season. It's just too dark a show to resonate with the masses, and it's a worse match with the easy-to-watch Grimm than Dracula was. 0.68 and an easy dunzo. Likeliest: It won't start the season as well as Dracula did, but I could see it settling at nearly the same level. If there's a renewal available for the Friday 10/9c shows (which may be a big if), Hannibal's heavy acclaim means it will beat out Dracula with similar ratings. 0.92. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.15 | ||||
| 1.12 | Occupants | |||
| Dracula | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| flop | 1.04 | 1.23 | ||
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.36 | -18% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 1.25 | -11% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Thursday 10:00 | ||||
Note: Fox quietly postponed the return of Kitchen Nightmares, which otherwise would've been a part of this "premiere week" on Friday. My uneducated guess is that it may be replacing Rake on Thursday. If it ends up premiering before the next BC/WC post goes up next week, I will try to do a quickie BC/WC for it in the comments of this post.
Notable upcoming cable returns:
| Show | Network | Premieres | Avg | y2y |
| Dallas | TNT | 2/24 | 0.75 | -32% |
| Rizzoli and Isles | TNT | 2/25 | 0.79 | -16% |
| Perception | TNT | 2/25 | 0.71 | -6% |
| The Americans | FX | 2/26 | 0.69 | |
| Vikings | History | 2/27 | 1.41 | |
| Bates Motel | A&E | 3/3 | 1.19 |
