If you're new to Best Case/Worst Case, here's what all the numbers mean.
 | The Bachelor | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres January 6 | 1.97 | |||
| Best Case: With CBS' Monday comedy block struggling, the competitive situation on Monday is not really that bad - as we saw with Dancing with the Stars' relatively steady season. Stays even at 2.75, marking one of the show's best seasons in Plus since moving to Monday. Worst Case: The Bachelorette took a big drop last summer following a steady season the year before. The Bachelor continues that negative momentum to an even greater extent (since it had an even better season last year). Down 29% to a 1.95, back below DWTS' average. Likeliest: It is probably due to even out somewhat after last year's major overachievement, and the Olympics and an earlier return from The Voice will make the landscape tougher than last year in the second half of the season. -18% to a 2.25, edging the DWTS Monday average once again. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.01 | ||||
| 2.75 | Occupants | |||
| Dancing with the Stars | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| +7% | hit | 2.14 | 2.21 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.56 | +7% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.26 | +22% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | ||||
 | Intelligence (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.20 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres January 7 (Tuesday Preview) | 1.20 | |||
| Best Case: Lost alums have done pretty well moving on to CBS procedurals, and Josh Holloway is the biggest draw to make that leap yet. Unlike Hostages, this show is very on-brand for the eye. Borderline hit: 2.40. Worst Case: It has a lot of the same disadvantages Hostages had to deal with: mediocre/incompatible lead-in, strong competition from The Blacklist and Castle. So it's Hostages part two, plus it goes a bit lower since viewing is lower in the spring. 1.15. Likeliest: Even before the season, I thought Intelligence would do better than Hostages. I was relatively down on Hostages, but not nearly as down as the reality. So obviously it's easier now to say this will do better than Hostages. I'm tempering my expectations somewhat because the lead-in is worse and the competition is fiercer than I'd have thought in the fall, but I still give this a pretty decent shot at success. 1.90. | Occupants | |||
| Hostages | ||||
| 1.22 | 1.31 | |||
 | Killer Women (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.18 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres January 7 | 1.30 | |||
| Best Case: The strongly female-skewing procedurals rarely bomb outright on ABC, even in bad situations; Castle's been a big success, and shows like Women's Murder Club and Body of Proof at least showed a real pulse at the beginning. Builds big from Trophy Wife and gets renewed. 1.65. Worst Case: The "executive producer Sofia Vergara" promo angle reeks of desperation; it worked so well for Eva Longoria-produced Ready for Love last year. Ultimately, the competition is tough and the lead-in is terrible and not remotely compatible. Don't overthink it. It pulls WWYD? numbers. 0.87. Likeliest: Ugh. This would have a real shot as a Dancing with the Stars lead-out, but as a Trophy Wife lead-out? I could see this being another Women's Murder Club that attracts some interest even in a tough spot, but most of that will be 50+ interest. We might end up saying it didn't do that badly given how terrible its slot is, but it will just be a little too far below marginal to make the renewal reach. 1.18. | Occupants | |||
| Lucky 7 | ||||
| 1.00 | 0.94 | |||
| Primetime: What Would You Do? | ||||
| 0.87 | 1.01 | |||
 | Chicago PD (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.42 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres January 8 | 1.29 | |||
| Best Case: When it comes to procedurals, In Dick Wolf We Trust. If firefighters could build out of SVU, then surely cops can. Ties Chicago Fire's winter/spring average at a 1.90 and adds another solid piece to the NBC drama stable. Worst Case: Chicago Fire worked because the hot firefighters and the soapy angles meshed well with the scandalous appeal of SVU. This is more of a meat-and-potatoes cop show, and those have regularly disappointed in recent years. Mimics Ironside's numbers, but the average drops lower because it has to be left on the air longer. 0.98. Likeliest: In the middle on this one. It won't pick up quite the same kind of 18-49 heat as ChiFi, but the connections to that show and the Wolf empire will keep it from becoming an Ironside-level disaster. After a decent start, it'll settle a bit behind SVU, which may be enough to stick around. 1.43. | Occupants | |||
| Ironside | ||||
| 1.05 | 1.02 | |||
| Dateline Wed | ||||
| 1.10 | 1.18 | |||
 | Suburgatory | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres January 15 | 1.93 | |||
| Best Case: Welcome home, Suburgatory. Airing here from the start of its season, Suburgs is able to get back to its season one glory days, fully retaining The Middle. And with Idol even less of a factor on Wednesday, The Middle holds up better in the winter/spring. 1.99. Worst Case: This show was one of my biggest misses last year. Why? The show is just losing momentum fast. Budget cuts and being held for midseason won't help. Struggles to hold even 75% of The Middle and is canned. 1.33. Likeliest: The Middle is tracking -12% y2y for the season right now. Keep that up in the winter/spring and it'll average a 1.84 as a Suburgatory lead-in. Suburgs held 90% of The Middle in its late-season tryouts last year, so I'll give it close to that retention again, putting it at about a 1.64. On the bubble! | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.75 | ||||
| 2.14 | Occupants | |||
| Back in the Game | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -18% | solid | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.75 | +22% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 3.25 | -34% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:30 | ||||
 | American Idol | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres January 15 (Wednesday Edition) | 2.33 | |||
| Best Case: The show has been diluted by Fox airing The X Factor in the fall. The good news is that nobody's really watching X anymore, hence no chance to get fatigued. Combine that with the return of some old reliable judges, and Idol manages a stabilization reminiscent of what Dancing with the Stars pulled off this fall. -5% to 3.70. Worst Case: The bleeding only accelerated down the stretch of Idol's last season, including a -44% finale. And the slippage got truly ridiculous on The X Factor this season. That'll continue on Idol. An empire is crumbling, and no amount of tweakage is gonna change that at this point. Down nearly 40% to a 2.40. Likeliest: This franchise is a bit more robust than The X Factor, so perhaps it won't drop to quite the same extreme extent. But there's very little reason for optimism in Fox music land, and dealing with the Winter Olympics will be tough. 2.82, down almost 30% more. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.80 | ||||
| 3.90 | Occupants | |||
| The X Factor Wed | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -27% | big hit | 1.79 | 1.79 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 3.86 | +1% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 4.20 | -7% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
 | The Following | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres January 19 (Sunday Preview) | 2.49 | |||
| Best Case: Not only will the post-NFC Championship slot help the show start off better than last year, but the fact that it's getting that slot at all is a good sign for season two creatively. It's up over 10% to a 2.95 and in the mix for top broadcast drama. Worst Case: Before a good last couple weeks, this show was really limping to the finish last year. Its Almost Human lead-in will be less reliable, and who knows what will be the lead-in in the second half of the season. And it's got the Olympics and an earlier-returning Voice to muck up the Monday landscape. A one-hit wonder that drops over 30% to a front-loaded 1.75, and Kevin Bacon has had enough. Likeliest: When the dust settles and the Olympics arrive, this will probably be in the 2.0 range, where it was headed late last season. Inflated a bit by the early weeks, it'll average a 2.25. That's still more than good enough for a third season. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.63 | ||||
| 2.63 | Occupants | |||
| Sleepy Hollow | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| hit | 2.71 | 2.77 | ||
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.54 | +4% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.30 | +14% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 9:00 | ||||
 | Star-Crossed (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 0.38 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres February 17 | 0.41 | |||
| Best Case: The CW has an increasingly cohesive brand, and this fits in quite nicely, mixing genre elements with young adult lit romance. The network shores up its fourth night a few months ahead of schedule with a very nice 0.88 from Star-Crossed. Worst Case: It may be "on-brand," but so was Cult. CW shows still need some way of attracting attention to get started, and this doesn't really have that in a lead-off role on a tough night. Cult part two at a pathetic 0.25, and Hart of Dixie ends up back on Monday before season's end. Likeliest: Star-Crossed is the only show on broadcast that premieres against the Olympics, and I doubt that's a good sign. It'll probably get a lot of promotion, so it'll start off a little better than Hart of Dixie's normal mediocre 0.4. But it won't do much/any better by the time it settles. 0.45, which ties last year's The Carrie Diaries average in this slot, and it'll be in the same kind of position as Carrie last year. The CW's increased depth may be its undoing. | Occupants | |||
| Hart of Dixie | ||||
| 0.40 | 0.43 | |||
