The Question, Wednesday 1/15/14: Will This American Idol Season Sing a Different Tune?

American Idol premiere night (and the following morning of ratings) was once the time of the year when Fox executives licked their chops, knowing the entire course of the TV season was about to swing massively in their favor. Nowadays, they're just holding their breaths, praying another huge swath doesn't desert the one-time Death Star. There's yet another shake-up on the judging panel, including the return of Jennifer Lopez, and yet another promotional campaign that reminds you this is the one franchise that creates legitimate music stars. Will this American Idol season sing a different tune? That's The Question for Wednesday, January 15, 2014.

American Idol Last Season

6.0 (premiere, 1/16/13, -19% year-to-year) 3.90 (Wednesday average, -27%) 3.68 (Thursday average, -25%) 3.6 (finale, 5/16/13, -44%)

It'd be surprising if this Idol premiere replicates the massive -44% year-to-year from last season's finale, because that finale had irregularly high competition from the other broadcasters. However, the season's declines undeniably got much worse over the course of last season; most points late last year were in the -30% range. Looking at this, and at how terribly The X Factor fared in the fall, it seems likely there will be real damage to this season's initial sampling. Even managing a second straight -20%ish premiere (or upper 4's) would likely be considered a positive. I think it will be closer to -30%.

Over/Under: 4.25.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.