The Question, Monday 1/6/14: Will The Bachelor Have Another Rosy Season?

Tonight's biggest broadcast event is the return of ABC's The Bachelor, which looks to follow up on a very strong season a year ago. Though the competition will get much tougher in February as the Olympics and then The Voice show up, tonight there's practically no broadcast resistance. The only major competitor is ESPN's BCS Championship Game, which will get a huge rating but probably won't have a ton of cross-over audience. Will The Bachelor have another rosy season? That's The Question for Monday, January 6, 2014.

The Bachelor Last Season

2.3 (premiere, 1/7/13, -4% year-to-year) 2.75 (average, +7% y2y) 3.5 (finale, +21% y2y)

The Bachelorette had a relatively weak season last summer, so I predicted this Bachelor season would also take a pretty sizable year-to-year decline. However, most of that pain is going to be felt in the second half of the season. This show's seasons usually start slow and build big, but that growth was much smaller in 2012 when The Voice arrived in early February. A similar competition change is coming again in February, and this premiere faces even less competition than usual. That should keep it close to even year-to-year tonight.

Over/Under: 2.25.

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