- The thirteenth premiere of American Idol (4.7) was down 22% year-to-year in the demo (and continued to skew older, dropping only a little over 15% in overall viewership). But given the incredible severity of the show's bleed through last season (when it was in the 3.0 range by the end and had a 3.6 finale), this is not a bad start. In fact, no Idol premiere has increased this much (28%) vs. the prior season's finale. And if the judges were as well-received by the audience as they seemed to be by critics, it's certainly not hard to imagine the show holding up better through the season this time.
- Almost everything dropped week-to-week against Idol's return, but it was most severe on NBC, coming down from last week's inflated episodes against CBS pre-emptions. Chicago PD (1.5) was down 25% in week two, but that was predictable... and in fact a less severe drop than its lead-in Law and Order: SVU (1.4) took. And Revolution (1.3) hit a new low at 8/7c.
- On ABC, Suburgatory (1.6) had a modest start in its return to 8:30, barely outrating the last few episodes of Back in the Game/Super Fun Night, but that looks a little better relatively speaking since The Middle (1.8), Modern Family (3.2) and Nashville (1.3) all tied or hit new season lows.
FULL TABLE:
| Info | Show | Timeslot | True | |||||||
| A18-49 | Skew | Last | LeLa | Rank | y2y | TLa | Ty2y | |||
| The Middle | 1.8 | 30% | -18% | -0.4 | n/a | 11/11 | -22% | -18% | -22% | 1.9 |
| Suburgatory | 1.6 | 38% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1/1 | -43% | +7% | -11% | 1.7 |
| Modern Family | 3.2 | 44% | -9% | -0.3 | +0.1 | 10/11 | -26% | -9% | -26% | 3.7 |
| Super Fun Night | 1.5 | 43% | -12% | -0.2 | -0.3 | 11/12 | n/a | -12% | -35% | 1.4 |
| Nashville | 1.3 | 32% | -7% | -0.1 | -0.3 | 11/11 | -41% | -7% | -42% | 1.5 |
| ABC: | -9% | -30% | ||||||||
| Two and a Half Men (R) | 1.2 | 28% | -20% | +20% | 1.3 | |||||
| The Millers (R) | 1.1 | 29% | -31% | -8% | 1.3 | |||||
| Criminal Minds | 2.4 | 29% | +0% | +0.0 | -1.4 | 8/12 | -17% | -2% | -17% | 2.9 |
| CSI | 2.0 | 25% | +11% | +0.2 | +0.0 | 4/12 | -13% | -15% | -15% | 2.0 |
| CBS: | -13% | -13% | ||||||||
| Revolution | 1.3 | 35% | -13% | -0.2 | n/a | 11/11 | n/a | -16% | +73% | 1.4 |
| Law and Order: SVU | 1.4 | 33% | -33% | -0.7 | -0.2 | 9/10 | n/a | -35% | +133% | 1.7 |
| Chicago PD | 1.5 | 35% | -25% | -0.5 | -0.7 | 2/2 | n/a | -23% | +43% | 1.7 |
| NBC: | -26% | +75% | ||||||||
| American Idol Wed | 4.7 | 39% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1/1 | -22% | +276% | -21% | 4.9 |
| Fox: | +276% | -21% | ||||||||
| Arrow | 0.9 | 45% | -18% | -0.2 | n/a | 7/10 | -18% | +200% | -14% | 1.0 |
| The Tomorrow People | 0.5 | 43% | +0% | +0.0 | -0.2 | 9/10 | n/a | +150% | -47% | 0.6 |
| CW: | +180% | -30% | ||||||||
| Big5: | +42% | -16% | ||||||||
KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
More Spotted Ratings in the Index.
21 comments:
Predictably bad night for almost everyone around (except CBS and FOX):
- American Idol debuted quite well for the expectations and coming back from the finale is quite an accomplishment. I think it will have a decent season, it will not be another X-Factor like so many people were predicting
- NBC had the most awful drops but last week it was very inflated due to premiere effect and CBS preemptions all around. My poor poor Revolution... I hope it adjusts up and that it can go back up next week. Considering the competition, it could have been worse. SVU is back to its usual level and Chicago PD probably will stick around this level as well. I would consider it firmly on the bubble together with Revolution and Parenthood if it remains there
- ABC also had a bad night with lows all around. I don't think Suburgatory debuted poorly considering it was the most competitive Wednesday of the season and how low the middle was though. The Middle and Modern Family are weaker than they used to be, but still get the job done. Nashville did awful at 10 but I think the collapse of everything else on ABC will save it.
- CBS had an excellent night, as Criminal Minds and CSI continue to be the unsung heroes for the Eye. Criminal Minds didn't blink with the Idol premiere and CSI demolished the 10pm competition.
- Very sad to see Arrow returning lower, but it was against AI's premiere, so it's understandable. Hopefully, an upwards adjustment and an increase next week is in order. I cannot pretend to care about the ratings for TTP because the only ratings that will matter are the Monday ones and I still cannot imagine the show succeeding in that slot.
Also, that sound you just heard is The Goldbergs getting renewed. That show is the true winner from last night's massacre.
Chicago PD did good against way much competition compared to week ago. Competition won't get any harder, that's nice for them. But hiatus during Olympics after only few episodes could cause problems.
Anyway, CPD is not fighting shows from other networks, it's in race with Revolution and Parenthood for renewal. NBC could renew all of those 3, if (and only if) they put Revolution on Friday 10 PM and order 13 episodes of Parenthood as a midseason/spackle, but it's more realistic they're gonna renew 2 of those dramas, and it could be only 1. IF CPD can keep it up around 1.5, prospects for Season 2 are good. Same can't be said for Season 3, obviously.
I agree with you that they could renew three in those conditions but that the most likely outcome are 2, with even 1 being a possibility. I don't give Chicago PD any advantage over the others for now considering it's a freshman. I think all 3 are squarely at the bubble. The NBC bubble is horrible to figure out (same with Parks and Community actually)
On one hand, Revolution has a leg up on Parenthood, but on the other, a Revolution renewal basically spells two more seasons. A 1.4 isn't BAD for NBC, considering Law and Order also hit a 1.3 last season, but NBC's also having a better midseason so far, and that's not likely to change unless the sunday line-up crashes and burns or Community and Parks take a nosedive.
I have to remember that we shouldn't get wrapped up in an individual data point, but man is that Nashville number stinky. Yes it's only a tick lower than the previous season low but how this show could still be in the mix for a third season is starting to baffle me. Maybe it's a Mindy Project-type where its subdemos are profitable enough.
Likewise, Revolution is not making a strong case for season 3. I'm not buying that getting a season 3 pickup automatically means it's getting a 4th season because of syndication. On a network like The CW (where their product comes exclusively from its parent studios) I get it. But Revolution is owned by Warner Bros., and NBC isn't going to have their best interests in mind. NBC should be happy that the show didn't pull a Smash and improved their timeslot performance vs. last year, but at best Revolution is that point on the bubble that can feel the needle pushing into it.
Revolution I understand, because they have weak spot on Friday 10 PM, and it could be good fit with Grimm. NBC can always order only 13 episodes to see how it goes. Then if Revolution performs well on Fridays, they make backorder of 9 more episodes. Yes, that essentially would be risky 31 episodes order. But at least they'd postpone decision from mid-May to late October when they'd have some more ratings to look at.
Nashville is not really in contention. But could survive in complicated scenario where ABC comedies drop even more, so they decide to:
cut back comedies for 1 hour
+ give that hour to dramas making it 11 fall drams in the fall schedule
+ not want to air 5 rookie dramas in fall
= then they'd renew 7 dramas and Nashville is 7th on totem pole of ABC's dramas
But it's a long shot, obviously. Especially if 1.3s or even 1.2s would keep coming.
I don't see ABC cutting down a comedy hour right now. Not with The Goldbergs improving. I don't think they will move it to Wednesdays next year as people want. I think they will premiere 3 new comedies (Tuesday after TG and Wednesday) and move Suburgatory to Fridays. I think there is a reasonable chance they do the most obvious move of the season and to The Goldbergs/New Comedy/Shield/New Drama.
But I really don't see how Nashville is a certain cancellation, UNLESS Ressurection or Mind Games hit, which is a very low probability event at this point. Nashville is performing at 80%/85% of ABC's average - since when is that anything more than a bubble show? It's not like ABC doesn't have plenty of hours to replace already. It really could go either way! By the way, I am sure a semi decent lead-in could help.
It's really hard to call it because they are very close in the ratings and have very different situations in terms of producers/numbers of episodes/syndication.
Duck Dynasty got 3.4/3.3 beating Modern Family. Was there a week (or more) last spring when it was #1 for the night? I can't remember its trajectory, though I remember Idol dipping below 3.
What? 80% of ABC's average has nothing to do with anything. It's about relative position among shows. Look at it this way: What good would do to Nashville those 80% if ABC would have 7 or more dramas with 100% or better average?
It's about how many dramas ABC needs for fall, and that's probably 10. That would be 5 dramas with good ratings + Revenge (99% sure because of syndication) + probably 4 new dramas.
It means Nashville not making cut ... unless they get lucky break. Something like my above (I stated unlikely) scenario with opening 11th slot for drama, or Nathan Fillion calls it quits, or they like only 3 pilots, or whatever.
No, you got it all wrong. Only absolute ratings are important, they're cha-ching, because they determine ad prices. Those relative ratings are worthless. For example, 80% of bad network average is still bad ratings, no matter how one spins it. And ABC ratings really suck.
You're other mistake is you're talking like ABC is having 10 dramas with good ratings, like it's CBS. So, lucky ABC, they must decide which of those hits to renew, and only then look at pilots. No, ABC has only 5 dramas with good ratings, 2 with bad ratings (but one of them, Revenge, is only 22 episodes from syndication, so guess what) and then some with abysmal ratings. In such a bad situation ABC is gonna be bullish on new shows, and premiere as many of them as they are able to promote (which was as many as 8 last fall, 4 of which dramas).
It definitely won at least one night last spring, I remember being stunned by it doing so. It was beating Idol on a regular basis, not sure how often it beat MF.
If they stay this close through the spring then it'll probably come down to economics that we can only guess at. (I'd favour Chicago PD in the guessing as Parenthood is noted as an expensive show, Revolution could get stinky towards the end of its 44-pack, and NBC have invested big time in Dick Wolf. But that's guessing.)
I agree with you that it will come down to guessing unless the ratings gap opens more. I am not able to guess yet. I also think there are some other options that involve them renewed but not on a Monday-Thursday fall schedule like Revolution on a Friday and Parenthood on midseason for farewell season (Sundays or midweek).
We will have to agree to disagree then. If absolute ratings mattered, the CW, FOX Comedy, NBC Comedy, as well as NBC Drama in its last years would be out of existence.
Besides, if you check out ad prices, you will see that they are pretty much the same every year despite the year to year declines. You are therefore confused thinking that absolute ratings are the ones that matter. Your notion of "x shows with bad ratings", is wrong per principle. I won't probably convince you of this though, so, as I've said, agree to disagree!
Those CW, or NBC comedy, or whatever were pity renewals. Those happen because of the fact networks are capped in number of new shows they can successfully promote in fall.
That has nothing to do with ABC, they're not in such situation. They have 5 dramas and 2 comedies with good ratings. Plus 3 for syndication reasons: Revenge, Last Man Standing and Suburgatory. So they're fine, those 10 + 8 new scripted shows does the trick. They might give renewal to truly-on-the-bubble show The Goldbergs (then they'd put one veteran comedy on the bench or air only 3 new comedies in the fall). They might give pity renewal to Nashville or Mixology, but I highly doubt it, there is no reason in current circumstances. Other their scripted shows are already dead.
As far as I can tell it was #1 outright three times in-season (3/27, 4/17 and 4/24) and there were a couple other times it tied as #1 (including a three-way tie with Idol and MF on 2/27).
I think relative ratings do matter in terms of a cut-off point. ABC's going to have openings at Tuesdays at 10, Thursday at 8 and Sundays at 10 (or 9) at a bare minimum. I think it's safe to say that at least one of the two 10 PM slots will be filled with dramas. If they decide that they want to debut two new dramas in the fall and two more at midseason, that takes care of things and they don't need anything else. Cancelling Nashville means opening another 10 PM slot for...a new dramedy? Two hangout comedies? Something else? Revenge not doing well enough for a fourth season? Then you're basically replacing two days of your line-up. Mind you...
1) We still haven't seen SHIELD's spring ratings, and it's already at low-2s.
2) We don't know if Castle's leads want to continue much longer.
3) We don't know if Grey's leads want to continue much longer.
4) Once is down a third, and it may not have hit bottom.
So maybe ABC doesn't want to throw two more newbies to their death. Why not start What Do You Do? or The Lookout or Celebrity Wife Swap in the fall? Maybe they'll finally commit to two hours of TGIF and move Shark Tank somewhere to serve as a lead-in. Ending the odd lone hour of comedies on Tuesday makes sense to me.
I agree with the ABC point. Regarding the Revolution being expensive point, I used to think that way but once you think about it:
- Bones is a 9 years old show that is likely going to air a 10th season on Friday... I am sure that show is more expensive than Revolution
- Hawaii Five-0, with all its action sequences and production values in Hawaii, not to mention the cast AND all the guest stars they keep getting, is surely not cheaper than Revolution either
- CSI NY was also an extremely old show in its last Friday seasons and kept getting renewed (until it wasn't, but you get my point).
I know this doesn't mean Revolution can go to Fridays and NBC may very well decide it's too expensive for Fridays, but I just don't think it's that black and white, there are more expensive shows airing on Fridays.
In the cases of Bones, Hawaii Five-O, and CSI: NY, those shows are/were owned by the network's parent studio. Bones & CSI: NY make/made more return on that money with the additional episodes to sell in a syndication package. Plus, those shows help(ed) their respective network solve a problem timeslot on a difficult night. In the case of 5-0, it's fourth season was a gimme because of the deal CBS Studios & TNT made in season one. Given CBS' drama problems this season, and the opportunity to sell more episodes to TNT and off-network syndication, Hawaii feels good for a fifth season.
By contrast, NBC isn't going to see any kind of ROI from Revolution in syndication since they don't own it. And unlike Fringe when it earned a final season renewal, Revolution is not in or near enough to syndication levels for Warner Brothers to take a haircut on the show.
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