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Friday, November 1, 2013

NBC True Power Rankings, October 2013


As November sweeps kicks off, it's time for this season's first full edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True, offering some thoughts on the ratings strength of the shows. As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up, which weeds out inflated early episodes that don't really matter anymore. This year, I'm also including the year-to-year trend for the season to date and the "skew" (or percent of the total audience within the 18-49 demo). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through October 27.

Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW




NBC ComediesTrueA18-49Skewy2yCounted Eps
The... Elite? The Dunzo? The Bubble?
1Parks and Recreation1.411.2549%-26%2
2The Michael J. Fox Show1.361.2040%2
3Sean Saves the World1.211.1039%2

New season, same old NBC sitcom woes. NBC's latest attempt to artificially brew "broadness" was a success in a skew sense; Michael J. Fox and Sean Saves the World have the CBS/ABC comedy kind of Skew. But the quantity of a CBS audience is just not there; it's another lesson in why the other broadcasters can't just "be CBS" and have their kind of success. NBC doesn't have the base audience, the "big stars" were not nearly big enough, and the shows are not distinctive enough. But because there were even bigger disasters elsewhere, Sean and MJF get to hang around for a little while and hope to benefit from a revolving door of lead-ins across the rest of 2013.

By the way, Parks and Rec has also "broadened" a bit, skewing 49% 18-49ers this year. Last year, both Parks and The Office were over 60%. Still, the show has held onto enough 18-49 audience to rise above the collapsing newbies, in the same way Community always seems to.


NBC ComediesTrueA18-49Skewy2yCounted Eps
The Definitely Dunzo
4Welcome to the Family0.990.9045%1




NBC DramasTrueA18-49Skewy2yCounted Eps
The Elite
1The Blacklist2.513.0036%2

Though I have a feeling Monday shows (particularly Monday 10/9c shows) might be a touch over-counted because Monday Night Football is included as competition, the story is the same for The Blacklist. It's doing well. Does it get a chance to air without The Voice this season? NBC has to decide if they want to actually try to keep the lights on at all in that awkward month without The Voice and before the Olympics.

NBC DramasTrueA18-49Skewy2yCounted Eps
The "Wait Until Next Week" Division
2Grimm2.201.8037%-10%1
3Dracula1.971.8043%1

The good thing about not doing these rankings till the end of October is that most of the inflated premieres are out of the picture. Not here, though. NBC had a very fine start to its Friday lineup, but we're comparing episode ones in this division against the fourth and fifth eps of most other shows. So... take caution.

However, the good news for Dracula is that it only has a 10-episode order, so there's not a full season of time to taper off before its renewal decision comes up. If it's still hanging onto low-1's by the end of the fall, I feel pretty confident it'd come back, given it's Friday and it's a co-production.

NBC DramasTrueA18-49Skewy2yCounted Eps
The "Still Better Than the Comedies" Division
4Law and Order: SVU1.591.6034%+4%2
5Chicago Fire1.582.2037%+31%2
6Parenthood1.441.3042%-24%2
7Revolution1.401.4035%-55%2

First note: the True metric has been a huge seller on Chicago Fire, even at the beginning of the season. From a skew standpoint, ChiFi is more compatible with The Voice than The Blacklist (which tends to skew a little older), and the Tuesday competition is not fierce (while The Blacklist gets credit for facing Monday Night Football). But even if the show is not really any stronger than it was last year, that's not a particularly actionable piece of intel. It's not like the show is in cancellation territory, even in a True sense. But this Tuesday lineup, hailed as a wild success early in the season, doesn't quite look that way anymore.

While Parenthood and Revolution may be near the bottom of the rankings right now, we're still very early. I don't think they're dead yet simply because NBC is off the map comedy-wise yet again, and there are likely many disasters yet to come. They've at least settled in at ratings that NBC can put up with for the rest of this season, which by NBC standards can be considered a minor win. That was not a given before the season, especially for Revolution. We can safely say it didn't completely "pull a Smash."

NBC DramasTrueA18-49Skewy2yCounted Eps
The Dunzo
8Ironside0.870.9026%2




NBC UnscriptedTrueA18-49Skewy2yCounted Eps
1The Voice Mon4.174.4041%+2%2
2The Voice Tue3.474.0540%-2%2
3The Biggest Loser1.892.0039%-20%1
4Dateline Fri1.511.3028%+10%2

While The Biggest Loser has been respectable, I do think a bit better could've been expected given it's paired with The Voice. How well would TBL have done if thrown to Thursday to patch up that disaster? Probably not as well as it's doing now, but... that's still a lot better than the comedy ratings.

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