| Post-Modern Family Launches |
| 4.4 (Cougar Town, 9/23/09, 4.2 Modern) 3.7 (Mr. Sunshine, 2/9/11, 5.1 Modern) 2.8 (Happy Endings, 4/13/11, 3.9 Modern) 2.9 (Apartment 23, 4/11/12, 4.2 Modern) 3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12, 5.5 Modern) 2.8 (Suburgatory s2, 10/17/12, 4.7 Modern) 2.9 (How to Live, 4/3/13, 4.2 Modern) |
For all the talk about how Modern Family is a "bad" lead-in, ABC has aired plenty of incompatible shows after Modern Family in the past, and they still haven't had a genuinely disappointing series premiere rating yet. But I'm not giving up hope! I'm just not sold that a large contingent is turning on their TVs for Rebel Wilson. Modern Family will remain big enough (probably coming down a few tenths from last week's 4.2) that it'll keep this show from getting into We Are Men territory. But it's the same kind of weird pairing.
Over/Under: 2.35.
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17 comments:
Tough one. But I'll go with a 2.4 for over, only because the lead-in factor is so strong.
Over. Also a 2.4. I had hoped that this would crash and burn, with Trophy Wife getting the post-MF slot. But with its 1.4 last night, I don't think it'll happen. So I'll just settle for SFN crashing and burning. Haha.
Under. Even with a good raw-numbers lead-in, I don't feel a good omen after seeing the numbers for last night (and for comedy in general aside from Thursday CBS).
Hmm, I was guessing right around your number. But I'll go with...under, with 2.3. It looks terrible, no one knows Rebel Wilson, and unlike Neighbors it doesn't have family appeal factor.
Over- 2.5
Over. The Modern Family lead-in should be enough to send it over.
I'm a seller on the show, but I don't think it'll bomb that hard.
I've said this before and I'll say it again, this is a show that got rejected from the CBS 2012 development slate. You know, the one so bad that they chose not to expand their sitcom hours with five of the top seven scripted shows in broadcast television returning to the schedule. You know, the one where the #1 comedy was Partners.
MF will likely be around a 4.0; can a sitcom premiere pull off sub-60% retention in a half-hour? The Neighbors pulled it off, and that was almost compatible! But it's hard to bet on a repeat when there's no broadcast comedy competition (unless early-stage XF counts, which it might). Over, but it'll have a 1-handle next week.
Over, but will be waaaay under by week 2.
Over, even though it feels difficult to be optimistic right now.
Over. Can't see it under 2.4.
I think it will flop but for now it has to be over
Over
OVER.
With a solid fall-Modern Family debut, no way it debuts under 2.4. It will be way under that number in a few weeks though!
Over
Under. Modern Family will drop to around 3.3.
I'm going to take another big risk and say 2.2 for Under. I will also guess on the side that it scores 3.2 in the female 18-34 demo, which would be decent except I think the male numbers will be quite a bit lower.
Over
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