Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
| ABC Comedies | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Elite | |||||||
| 1 | Modern Family | 3.75 | 4.00 | 47% | -18% | 2 | |
| 2 | The Middle | 2.22 | 2.20 | 35% | -8% | 2 | |
For a long time, we've been able to say that ABC has developed two long-term solid comedies in the last decade-plus, and both amazingly came out of the same fall 2009 class. And at least for now, that doesn't seem to be changing with...
| ABC Comedies | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Actual Middle | |||||||
| 3 | Super Fun Night | 1.54 | 2.10 | 47% | 2 | ||
| 4 | Back in the Game | 1.50 | 1.80 | 36% | 2 | ||
| 5 | Last Man Standing | 1.42 | 1.25 | 27% | -18% | 2 | |
| 6 | The Goldbergs | 1.38 | 1.65 | 43% | 2 | ||
...this bunch.
As I said yesterday, I believe ABC has just been searching for some reason to get behind any of these underwhelming shows. While people may be overreacting a bit to The Goldbergs' steadiness after a SHIELD repeat this week (not included in the numbers above), the bottom line is that it's competing against an extremely weak bunch of competitors, so that kind of showing looks much better by comparison. I say it would be a surprise if The Goldbergs doesn't have more episodes ordered by this time next week.
Perhaps the most interesting thing in ABC comedy land is the race for the post-Modern Family slot at midseason. Unless they're dumb enough to put Mixology in the slot or give it back to Suburgatory, it probably comes down to the new comedies. Super Fun Night seems relatively "compatible" in terms of the skew numbers, and it has the inertia advantage, but does ABC really want to get behind yet another low-2's offering that would probably collapse elsewhere? Last night's results certainly put the compatibility of SHIELD and comedies into some question, so the Tuesday comedies may be legitimately in the discussion for a Wednesday move now.
By the way, a quick note on Back in the Game: as the gap with The Middle gradually widens, it feels like the tide is turning against this one, even though it's certainly enough a part of the pack that it could get an episode extension. ABC has always tended to "follow the buzz" in these marginal situations, and Back in the Game is a buzz-less, DVR viewing-less show. Another important thing to note is that it's probably the easiest show to replace, as this has always felt like Suburgatory's "best" timeslot.
| ABC Comedies | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Dunzo...? | |||||||
| 7 | Trophy Wife | 1.18 | 1.25 | 40% | 2 | ||
| 8 | The Neighbors | 1.06 | 0.95 | 31% | -54% | 2 | |
These shows seemed like the weak links from the very beginning, but it's been fascinating to watch as the other new shows slowly got weaker and weaker since week two while Trophy Wife and The Neighbors held relatively steady. I thought last week's 1.2 might be the final nail in the coffin for Trophy Wife, but it went back up to 1.4 this week. I'd still label it the weak link among the newbies, but ABC has a bit of a history of making ratings reaches for shows with good buzz, and Trophy Wife probably has the best. So I'm not counting it out just yet.
| ABC Dramas | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Power Block | |||||||
| 1 | Scandal | 3.00 | 3.10 | 43% | +61% | 2 | |
| 2 | Grey's Anatomy | 2.86 | 2.75 | 42% | -17% | 2 | |
This isn't exactly Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy circa early 2006, but it's the closest thing we have right now. This combo's performance has people wanting ABC to use the shows "better." It could involve moving one to another night, or it could involve shifting both down an hour and launching something new at 10/9c. It seems very possible one of those could happen at some point, but will it happen within this season? There are two big factors here, both pulling me in opposite directions.
1) Are any of the midseason dramas good bets to succeed after these shows? I'm fairly skeptical about that. I guess I'd go with Killer Women as the least bad bet. But it's not like ABC is overflowing with better options. Scandal and/or Grey's would certainly provide more lead-in juice than almost anything else the network could offer.
And 2) How long will Scandal stay hot? I don't want to overreact to the big drop last week, and I think the show has actually showed some patience creatively (it still hasn't even gotten into its fictional election season), but I still think a show built on this kind of crazy is not going to have the kind of long-term resiliency that Grey's Anatomy has shown. Even waiting until next fall to use Scandal "better" carries some risk. Part of me says to strike while the iron is hot.
| ABC Dramas | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Second Tier | |||||||
| 3 | Agents of SHIELD | 2.58 | 2.75 | 47% | 2 | ||
| 4 | Once Upon a Time | 2.07 | 2.15 | 39% | -30% | 2 | |
| 5 | Castle | 2.04 | 2.05 | 24% | +0% | 2 | |
The "What's wrong with Agents of SHIELD?" narrative was perhaps the most inevitable TV media storyline this season, and we haven't even waited until it dropped into remotely shaky ratings territory! The massive premiere rating was a bad thing for the media outlook on this show, as there was probably never any real chance it could hold anywhere near the 4.7. Still, while the bleeding has been very slow the last couple weeks, it hasn't actually had an episode that was steady/up, so we're not yet quite sure what it's gonna be over the long term.
| ABC Dramas | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Bubble | |||||||
| 6 | Nashville | 1.52 | 1.60 | 37% | -18% | 2 | |
| 7 | Revenge | 1.36 | 1.45 | 34% | -37% | 2 | |
How much trouble are Nashville and/or Revenge in? I'm guessing they would eke out renewals if the season ended right now, but there's really not a lot to discuss here until the midseason dramas enter the mix and these shows return from hiatus. I'll just offer a couple quick things.
- You could definitely argue both are undercounted by True, as both are in very tough timeslots in terms of cable competition (which is kind of the number's blind spot). Nashville is in the Duck Dynasty/American Horror Story slot, while Revenge of course must deal with The Walking Dead. However, you would have to do some major fanwanking to get either show anywhere near the second tier; the best you can say is that they're likely a bit stronger than the bubble comedies.
- I'm not buying that syndication will help Revenge much/at all. Who is really gonna pay any significant amount to air this show five nights a week? It's low-rated and it's the worst kind of show for repeats/syndication. This could become another one of those really interesting tests of the syndication dogma. But I believe Revenge is probably going to need to be able to make a ratings case to get renewed.
| ABC Dramas | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | ||
| The Dunzo | |||||||
| 8 | Once Upon a Time in Wonderland | 1.20 | 1.10 | 34% | 1 | ||
| 9 | Betrayal | 0.96 | 0.90 | 35% | 2 | ||
| 10 | Lucky 7 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 36% | 1 | ||
Wonderland is technically not really that far from being on the next tier, but I don't see much reason to expect it to rebound, so...
| ABC Unscripted | True | A18-49 | Skew | y2y | Counted Eps | |
| 1 | Shark Tank | 2.44 | 2.00 | 35% | +9% | 2 |
| 2 | Dancing with the Stars | 2.06 | 2.05 | 21% | -1% | 2 |
| 3 | 20/20 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 32% | -9% | 2 |
| 4 | America's Funniest Home Videos | 1.24 | 1.40 | 28% | -12% | 1 |
Shark Tank has a chance to become the biggest Friday show in A18-49+ history, although the +9% y2y will probably not sustain. It's about to start getting compared with what was really its peak period last year (when it was airing after a still-big Malibu Country).
Even though it remains abundantly clear that the show would do better away from The Voice, it's still worth giving Dancing with the Stars some credit for managing to pretty much stabilize this season. As I said at the upfront, dropping the results show was a "big" move, but it felt more like a punishment than an actual good piece of strategy. I can guarantee they'd rather have had DWTS results over Lucky 7.
