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Thursday, September 26, 2013

The Question, Wednesday 9/25/13: Can NBC Start a Wednesday Revolution?


NBC's had a lot of fun crushing the competition on the season's first two nights with The Voice and its drama lead-outs. But tonight, they get to see where they're at with a lineup that doesn't include that show. It begins with Revolution, a series that aired all of season one with a Voice lead-in but now has to fend for itself on Wednesday. The last show sent away from The Voice completely bombed on day one, so NBC's hoping that, at minimum, Revolution doesn't "pull a Smash." Can NBC start a Wednesday Revolution? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 25, 2013.

Revolution Last Season Smash Crash 2013
4.1 (premiere, 9/17/12, 5.1 Voice)
2.57 (season one average)
1.9 -> 1.9 -> 2.0 (last three weeks)
3.8 (premiere, 2/6/12, 7.7 Voice)
2.27 (season one average) 
1.8 -> 1.8 -> 1.8 (last three weeks)
1.2 (season two premiere, 2/5/13, 1.5 New Normal)

I don't see Revolution being a Wednesday game-changer, but it seems likely to hold up better than Smash, at least well enough that NBC can reasonably stick with it within this season. It was much heavier-DVRed than Smash, had more male viewers, and it was basically even across the last two months of the season as The Voice dropped by nearly two points. All of that suggests there is more distinct audience here. It's competing with unspectacular-rated reality series and comedies which shouldn't cross over that much. And though the lead-in is gone, it's at least gotten promoted within The Voice, while Smash showed up right in the middle of NBC's disaster times.

Over/Under: 1.75.
 
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